Baltimore (+2) at Tampa Bay
Tom Brady’s back is against the wall. Either that means something and the Buccaneers pull out a win, or it doesn’t and Brady really should just retire and spend more time with his kids. Tampa by a field goal.
Atlanta (+6.5) at Cincinnati
These teams are more evenly matched than they really should be. And still, the game’s being played in Cincinnati. Bengals by four.
Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas
The Lions — I know this will come as a shock — are not a good football team. Cowboys by 14.
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee
The margin maybe isn’t what anyone expected, but the Titans are the better football team here. Tennessee by three.
Green Bay (-4.5) at Washington
It looks like the Packers are going to stumble through the whole of this season. This week that means stumbling into a win against the overmatched Handmaid’s Tale Villains. Green Bay by six.
Tampa Bay (-13) at Carolina
This is not going to be pretty. Buccaneers by 20.
NY Giants (+3) at Jacksonville
The spread on this game is, at the very least, backward. Giants by three.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore
I’m not anticipating much defense. Bet the over and look for the Ravens to win by four.
NY Jets (-1.5) at Denver
I’m not sure how the Jets keeping winning football games. But they do. New Jersey by a point.
Houston (+7) at Las Vegas
The Raiders clearly aren’t going anywhere in 2022. But if they figure out a way to lose this game, they should probably just go home. Las Vegas by six.
Seattle (+5) at LA Chargers
The team that possess the ball last — just to get out of this pick, let’s say it’s Los Angeles — by three.
Kansas City (-1) at San Francisco
I’m gonna look for he home team’s defense to carry this one. Niners take a low scoring game by a point.
Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Miami
I can’t take this Steelers team to pull off an upset in Miami. Just cant. Dolphins by six.
Chicago (+7.5) at New England
If it weren’t for the Patriots habit of not finishing drives, this one would be over by halftime. And even still, New England by 13.
San Francisco (-4.5) at Atlanta
The early kickoff time may slow the 49ers down here. But the Falcons won’t be able to take advantage. And after halftime, it’ll be all San Francisco. Niners by at least double the spread.
New England (+2.5) at Cleveland
I like the Patriots defense in this matchup. New England by three.
NY Jets (+7.5) at Green Bay
The Packers have had their struggles so far this season. And they look like a team that’s likely to continue to struggle through the remaining 12 games. They don’t look like a team that’s likely to struggle to beat the Jets. Or not much, anyway. Green Bay by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+1.5) at Indianapolis
It would probably be wise to pick the team that won the previous meeting — just four short weeks ago — to come out on top yet again. But I just don’t believe the Jaguars have the stuff to pull off a season sweep over what is in reality a fairly evenly matched division rival. Colts by a point.
Minnesota (-3) at Miami
If I thought the Dolphins had it in them to protect Skylar Thompson from getting his skull caved in, I’d readily take the home dogs to take this one straight up. As it is … eh, I’ll say Vikings by one.
Cincinnati (-3) at New Orleans
Another game in which a defense points the way to victory. Cincinnati by six.
Baltimore (-5.5) at NY Giants
It’s hard to believe in the Giants. Even at 4-1. But I think a lot of people are finding it much easier than it should be to believe in the Ravens. New Jersey by three.
Tampa Bay (-9.5) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers have been good for so long that it’s hard to view them as bad. But, um, they’re bad. And getting worse. Buccaneers by 14.
Carolina (+10) at LA Rams
Believing the Panthers are bad is not so difficult. Rams by 13.
Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
This game feels evenly enough matched that the only thing to do is take the home team. Seahawks by three.
Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City
The Bills are the more balanced, more well rounded, and overall better team here. Buffalo by four.
Dallas (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Six and a half is just too much. Eagles by three.
Denver (+4.5) at LA Chargers
It’s going to be hard for the Broncos to take advantage of the Chargers’ lack of a defense. You know, what with the not having an offense and all. Los Angeles by seven.
Washington (-1) at Chicago
To the untrained eye, this may look like a football game. Bears by three. Quite possibly Bears by a score of 3-0.
NY Giants (+8) vs. Green Bay at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Packers are probably better than the Giants. Or at least if seems like the Packers ought to be better than the Giants. Two scores better? I don’t know. In Wisconsin, possibly. In New Jersey, probably not. In the United Kingdom, I’m gonna hedge a bit. Green Bay by seven.
Pittsburgh (+14) at Buffalo
I’m not sure which is likely to be the bigger problem for Pittsburgh here, not having an offense, or not having a defense. Buffalo by 20.
LA Chargers (-1) at Cleveland
Where I come from, in a game this evenly matched you take the home team. So there you go. Cleveland by a field goal.
Chicago (+7.5) at Minnesota
I haven’t seen anything that’s led me to believe the Vikings can succeed against a good team on any field this season. Minnesota by 10.
Detroit (+3) at New England
If you go by wins and losses, these two teams appear to be pretty evenly matched. If you go by just about anything else, however, you can see that they are not. Patriots by two turnovers and one touchdown.
Seattle (+5) at New Orleans
I should just take the home team to win a close one here. But, eh, I don’t know. I suspect the Seahawks offense will be able to keep the ball moving and put the Saints in a spot that’s just too tough for them to get out of. Seattle by a point.
Miami (-3.5) at NY Jets
The New Jersey defense is bad enough that it doesn’t matter who a half decent opponent has starting behind center. Dolphins by six.
Atlanta (+10) at Tampa Bay
How odd to have a game in which a divisional lead is on the line played between to so unevenly matched teams. Buccaneers by 14.
Tennessee (pick ’em) at Washington
Washington probably shouldn’t be this bad. And Tennessee probably shouldn’t be this not bad. But these teams are what they are. Titans by a field goal.
Houston (+7) at Jacksonville
These teams are going in opposite directions. This season. And you’ve got to figure in this game. Jaguars by nine.
San Francisco (-6.5) at Carolina
Cross-country travel keeps this one competitive through halftime. After that, it’s all Niners. San Francisco by a touchdown (yes, with the extra point).
Dallas (+5.5) at LA Rams
It’s hard to believe in the Cowboys. But, man, that Rams defense. Los Angeles by a point.
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Arizona
You can look for a factor that will keep the Cardinals in this game. Travel? Maybe. The Eagles overlooking a weak opponent? That happens. But there’s not much else. And I’m not sure either of those things matters in a matchup this unbalanced. Philadelphia by 10.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Baltimore
The Bengals D should be able to keep Cincinnati in this game. But I think the Ravens find a way to win it. Baltimore by a point.
Las Vegas (+7) at Kansas City
I just don’t see any path to victory for the visitors here. Kansas City by 13.
Indianapolis (+3) at Denver
Which of these teams is the least bad (neither is good) remains to be seen. But I think we can safely assume the Colts aren’t unbad enough to win in Denver on short rest. Broncos by four.
Week four and I still have no idea what’s going on. Here’s what not to expect.
Minnesota (-4) vs. New Orleans, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Vikings are probably good enough to beat the Saints in any stadium. But not by more than a field goal.
Cleveland (-1) at Atlanta
If I were smart, I’d probably take the Browns. Or, I don’t know. If I were smart and the game was being played in Cleveland, I’d surely take the Browns. But the game’s in Atlanta. And I guess I’m not very smart. Falcons by a point.
Washington (+3) at Dallas
The Cowboys probably have outplayed their potential through the first three weeks of this season. But so have the Commanders. Dallas by seven.
Seattle (+3.5) at Detroit
The Seahawks could probably keep this one close if they had an offense. Lions by 10.
Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis
The Colts at least have turned in one good game this season. That’s about as much of an edge as I can identify for either team in this matchup. Indy by six.
Chicago (+3) at NY Giants
Although both teams come in at 2-1, the Giants look to me to be there as a solidly middle-of-the-pack squad playing at about the level we’re likely to see all season. The Bears, on the other hand, I expect to sink as the weeks wear on. Giants by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Philadelphia
I don’t know if the Jaguars are for real, but so far, I’ve got little reason to doubt them. But the Eagles are pretty clearly for real. Jacksonville’s D keeps it to within a single score, but Philadelphia comes out ahead by four.
NY Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers aren’t good. The Jets are awful. Pittsburgh by seven.
Buffalo (-3) at Baltimore
Both of these teams are serious contenders. Buffalo, at least at the moment, is better balanced. That matters. Bills by one.
LA Chargers (-6) at Houston
The not having an offense thing appears to be a problem for the Texans. Who would have guessed? Chargers by three.
Arizona (+1) at Carolina
The Cardinals should be the better team here, but so far they haven’t been. Or not by enough anyhow. Panthers by a field goal.
New England (+9.5) at Green Bay
The Patriots are in for a struggle over the next several weeks as their starting quarterback works to get back on the field. The New England D should be good enough to keep this one from getting out of hand. But the Packers still come out on top. Green Bay by seven.
Denver (+2.5) at Las Vegas
The Raiders should be able to win this game. And still they’ll find a way to lose it. Broncos by three.
Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay
I’m taking the Tampa D to win this one. Buccaneers by four.
LA Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco
And here again in a prime time game I’m looking for the team with the better D to come out ahead. San Francisco by a point.
Miami (+3.5) at Cleveland
The Bengals should be a better team than the Dolphins. But so far they haven’t been. Maybe Cincy will get over its hangover in time for this game. But I need to see evidence of that kind of recovery before I even consider believing in it. Until that happens, I’m going with the team that’s playing better over the one that’s better on paper. Miami by a point.
I’m not getting better at this. In case you were wondering. I can’t. Yet. There’s not enough data. Well, that’s my excuse anyhow. Feels better than just admitting I’m clueless. Probably. Here’s what not to expect over the next couple of days.
Houston (+3) at Chicago
Neither of these teams is finished. And by “finished” I mean “ready,” not “done for the season.” They’re both probably done for the season. But the Bears are probably a step or two closer to being ready for 2023. Chicago by four.
Las Vegas (-2) at Tennessee
I don’t know why the Raiders are favored here. I mean, maybe they should be the better team. But are they the better team? Is “better” truly a word that can be applied to either of these squads right now? Tennessee by a point.
Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis
This feels like the gimme of the week. Chiefs by 14.
Buffalo (-4.5) at Miami
Temperature at kickoff is expected to be close to 90 degrees. Still won’t quite bring the Bills down to the Dolphins’ level. Bills by a field goal.
Detroit (+6) at Minnesota
YepThe Vikings probably have the brighter immediate future, but this game is still fairly evenly matched. And it’s a divisional game. So I’m not inclined to give six. Three, maybe four. So let’s just say Minnesota by four.
Baltimore (-2.5) at New England
The Ravens are farther along. They should win this game. Which will be no consolation to Patriots fans. Baltimore by six.
Cincinnati (-6) at NY Jets
The Bengals may not be very good. The Jets may not be an actual football team. Cincinnati by seven.
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
The Eagles so far appear to be on a mission. I think the Handmaid’s Tale Villains give their division rivals a game. But Washington won’t be able to hang for all 60. Philadelphia by four.
New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina
The Saints are bit uneven. The Panthers are a bit bad. New Orleans by three.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at LA Chargers
Three and a half seems excessive. I think this is a game. Chargers by a point.
LA Rams (-3.5) at Arizona
There’s no real reason to believe in the defending champs right now. But there’s also no reason to believe in the Cardinals. I’m just taking the home team. Arizona by three.
Atlanta (+1) at Seattle
The Seahawks may be struggling, but they’re not struggling that much. Seattle by seven.
Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers are just better than the Packers. Right now. And probably for the whole of this season. Tampa by four.
San Francisco (-1.5) at Denver
I know the game’s in Denver and all, but this matchup doesn’t look nearly that close to me. Niners by six.
Dallas (+1) at NY Giants
Conventional wisdom says that regardless of their respective records, the Cowboys are better than the Giants. I’m not sold on that conventional wisdom. New Jersey by three.
Pittsburgh (+4) at Cleveland
The good news for both of these teams is that their opponent this week isn’t from the AFC East. The bad news is, neither of them is particularly good. You know, at the football. Browns by a field goal.
