Week Six Picks
Better late than never, I hope. One thing I can predict for certain this week is that the favorites won’t all win again. They almost never do. Now, try to find the upset(s). That’s the hard part.
Buffalo (pick ’em) at Detroit
How often do you get to say this? The safe bet in this game is Detroit. Straight up, anyhow. Against the spread it’s anybody’s guess and my only take is that you’re a damned fool if you risk a penny on this game either way. The game is statistically even. I can’t find a single place in the numbers where either team comes out ahead. The Bills have an average defense, a lackluster offense. The Lions have an average offense and (for all the praise it garnered early on) a lackluster D. Both teams played well in losing efforts on opening weekend, but haven’t impressed anyone since. So what you do, if your smart, is pick the home team. And that’s how you know I’m not smart. I’m taking Buffalo. Why? Because I think they’re a tougher team. Tougher minded and more physical. I think they’ll keep slugging until they find a way to win, which they’ll do in the fourth quarter after the Lions either wear out or give up. Or not.
Carolina (+2.5) at Baltimore
I hate the idea of picking games like this as much as I love the idea of watching them. For the third straight week, the Ravens are involved in what I expect to be one of the best, most hard-fought games of the week. I’ve picked them in the previous two (and been right once, when they hosted the Chargers in week four). And my inclination is to stick with them and look for two out of three. That’s a tough thing to do, though. To begin with, that Monday night game in Denver was buh-rutal. And you can add to that the fact that the Ravens are coming off an even shorter week than most post-MNF teams. Plus, Carolina has been playing some great football since they got Steve Smith back in the starting lineup. I started to look at the stats and quickly came to two conclusions: First, the work wasn’t gonna get me any closer to a prediction, because it’s all too close. Second, the stats kind of don’t matter here. Carolina is clearly a different team with Smith in the roster than it was without him, which makes it hard to figure out what the team’s real numbers are. And Baltimore was either just exposed by Denver, in which case its stats through week four are fairly meaningless, or had a fluke of a game that will have skewed its overall stats in entirely the wrong direction. I’m thinking the latter — you kind of have to when you consider both the fact that the Broncos have made other good teams look bad this season and the fact that Steve McNair, a quarterback not given to making mistakes looked like a rookie at times during that Broncos game, throwing as many picks in that one game as he’d thrown all season going in — but the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s offense hasn’t really performed exceptionally all season (the Ravens are winning games on defense and everyone knows it), so its hard for me to simply take it on faith that Baltimore is guaranteed to rebound. So what do you do? Well, first of all, you keep your money away from this game. (Really, if you need a bet to make this one interesting, you need to ask yourself whether you have a serious gambling problem or whether you’re really a football fan.) And if you’re picking in a pool or something you flip a coin. I went with a dollar coin that I got out of the stamp machine at the post office. Sacagawea told me the Ravens would win it by a point on the last play of the game. So that’s what I’m going with.
Cincinnati (-6) at Tampa Bay
Give Bruce Gradkowski his props. The kid had a very nice day in his debut as a starter at New Orleans last weekend. They’ll never be able to take that away from him. The question now is what happens when he faces a (well rested) team that’s had a chance to study some tape. I’m thinking the oddsmakers got this one almost exactly right. I like the Bengals by a touchdown with the extra point.
Houston (+13) at Dallas
The conventional wisdom on this game is that Drew Bledsoe bounces back from his poor showing in Philadelphia and Terrell Owens gets an answer to his oft-quoted big question, which is to say the Cowboys sail. And considering the fact that Houston gives up a league-worst 295 passing yards and better than 28 points a game, you’ve gotta figure the conventional wisdom is pretty much on the money. I hate giving big points in NFL games, but I don’t really see where I have a choice here.
NY Giants (+2.5) at Atlanta
Everyone knows what this game comes down to, right? It’s all about whether Atlanta’s league-best running game (at least in terms of yardage: 6.1 yards per carry and 234 yards per game top the league, though the Falcons have only scored two rushing touchdowns), can prevail against a Giants run D that has allowed only three yards per carry, 86.5 per game and three TDs. It has to be that because Jim Mora keeps talking about how he’s not gonna go away from what his team does well just because you’re supposed to be able to pass the ball against the Giants but not run it. But you know what? I don’t think that means Michael Vick is gonna get through the day without throwing a pass. And the fact of the matter is that when Vick does pass, he’s gonna be throwing against a D that has given up 232 yards per game and eight passing touchdowns in games in which it didn’t have to account for a quarterback who’s as likely to break open a 20-yard run as he is to fire a 40-yard pass. Mix in a turnover-prone Giants offense facing a Falcons D that has a plus-6 giveaway/takeaway ratio and has allowed only 10.5 points per game, and you’ve gotta come away liking Atlanta. If you’re me, you like the Falcons by three.
Philadelphia (-3) at New Orleans
You know, the thing of it is, I just haven’t been all that impressed by the Eagles this season. I know that’s kind of a weird thing to say given that Philly is 4-1 and has outscored 30 teams in the league. Weirder still considering that Donovan McNabb has a passer rating of 107.2 (and is only being asked to throw the ball something on the order of 35 times a game) and Brian Westbrook is averaging more than 5 yards per carry. But, you see, that’s all about the offense. The defense is a different story. It’s allowing 335 yards (105 on the ground) and more than 19 points a game, which is more than any other winning team in the league other than Cincinnati. That is, the Eagles appear to me to be a rather unbalanced team, and that tells me it’s all gotta come crashing down at some point. And there are certainly those who believe this weekend may be telling. The Saints have, on paper at least, a slightly better defense than the Eagles (they’ve allowed 30 fewer yards and two fewer points per game), and their offense, while not as potent as Philly’s has been putting up about 24 points per game. And, of course, the Saints are at home. When you look a little closer, however, you can’t help but note that the Saints D has been getting killed by the run, surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, 123.8 yards per game. That’s not good given Westbrook’s impressive numbers. I expect the Saints defense to spend a lot of time on the field on Sunday. And in the end, I expect the Eagles, impressive or not, to come away with win by somewhere between four and six points.
Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis
So what happens when your solution to losing arguably the best running back in the league to injury is to go four wide and then one of those four gets too sick to play just as you’re heading for a tough divisional matchup with a 4-1 team that’s executing fairly well in every aspect of the game except run defense? Well, either you you’re your magic wand over Maurice Morris and hope the Rams don’t figure out how to turn him back into a pumpkin before the game is out or you lose. I’m expecting the latter, though only by a field goal.
Tennessee (+9.5) at Washington
In which the Redskins once again look like they’ve figured out how to win, even though they really haven’t. Washington by a touchdown.
Kansas City (+7) at Pittsburgh
Can someone please explain to me how a team that has failed to do anything well all season is favored by a touchdown over a team that has at least managed to execute its game plan once or twice? I mean, I know Pittsburgh’s at home. I know the Steelers’ backs are against the wall. And I’m sure they’re going to find a way to win here. But by seven? I just don’t see it.
Miami (+2.5) at NY Jets
Talk about having your backs against the wall. If Miami loses here, it goes from being the pick of certain “experts” to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI to being one of season’s earliest complete failures. And there are certainly those out there who believe that will be enough to elevate the Dolphins to a victory over a Jets squad that has also accomplished all of nothing this season and can’t play defense worth half a damn. They may be right. And I honestly couldn’t begin to tell you which of these rotten teams is less rotten than the other, so I’m going with two old tricks in making my pick: In a close game, pick the home team. And in any game pick the team not quarterbacked by Joey Harrington. Jets by a field goal.
San Diego (-10) at San Francisco
The rebuilding appears to be going fairly well in San Francisco. But when you’re a team that can’t stop the run and you come up against a team that features LaDainian Tomlinson at running back, you tend to lose. I wouldn’t give 10 points to a home team if real money were involved, but I’m not putting real money on this game, so what the hell.
Oakland (+16) at Denver
You know, I’m very well aware of the history between these two teams and all that, but this game illustrates perfectly why I’m thankful there’s flex scheduling in the Sunday night games coming up later this season. Sixteen points is a lot to give in an NFL game, especially when it’s four more than the favorite has scored on average this season (even if it’s 12 fewer than the underdog has surrendered), but my guess is that all Denver has to do is put up 17 and they’ll cover. Wake me when it’s over. (Or not really. Wait till Monday morning. That’ll give me a few extra hours to dream and pretend I don’t care.)
Chicago (-10) at Arizona
Unstoppable force meets fairly easily movable object. It’s another Chicago blowout. And another prime time dog. This one’s over by halftime and the final margin’s something on the order of three touchdowns. Bring on week seven.
