Week Five Picks
Thank the football gods for the night games this week, because otherwise, there’s just not a whole lot to get excited about. Here’s what you shouldn’t expect to happen:
Buffalo (+10.5) at Chicago
There’s no question but that the Buffalo Bills are a whole lot better this season than anyone (or anyone outside of Western New York, anyhow) ever expected. J.P. Losman is playing well. The Bills D is giving up a relatively low 297 yards and a unquestionably low 16.3 points per game. Given that the team is in its first year under a new head coach, you’ve gotta respect what they’re doing. You don’t, however, have to pick them to beat a Bears team that once again has the league’s stingiest defense (Chicago has allowed just 7.3 points per game) and now also features a potentially explosive offense (258 yards and 29 points per game) led by a quarterback with a passer rating of 100.8 (fifth best in the league). So I’m not. I won’t take Chicago to cover the big, big spread here, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them come within half a point of it.
Cleveland (+8) at Carolina
The Panthers have come to life in a big way over the past two weeks, besting division rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans to draw back to even after a rough start. Think that’s got anything to do with Steve Smith getting back on the field and snagging 17 balls for 199 yards? Now, do you think the Browns, who have a decent pass defense (on paper, anyhow) but still give up more yards in the air than either the Bucs or the Saints, are gonna be able to slow Smith down? Exactly. I’m taking Carolina and giving the eight.
Detroit (+6.5) at Minnesota
On paper, the Lions have a marginally better offense than the Vikings. In reality, the Vikings have a marginally better offense than the Lions. On paper and in reality the Vikings have a far better defense than the Lions. Advantage Minnesota. Maybe the Lions can keep it to within four or five, but they sure as hell ain’t winning.
Miami (+9.5) at New England
So, say you’re the team with the offensive line that has allowed a bit more than five sacks per game and that just got its ass kicked by Anthony Weaver, Travis Johnson, Anthony Payne and Mario Williams, how good do you think you’re gonna feel about facing Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green? Not too good, I’m willing to guess. Not too good at all. Daunte Culpepper (or maybe it’ll be Joey Harrington)and Ronnie Brown can’t be feeling all too good about the matchups in the trenches this week, either. I dunno. I hate the very idea of giving nine and a half points in an NFL game. And, last week’s results in Cincinnati notwithstanding, I’m doubly wary of picking the Pats to beat that kind of spread given their tendency to play to the level of their opponents at times. Plus, division games tend to be tough. But I don’t see how I could possibly look at this game and expect New England to take it by anything less than two touchdowns. And the loss effectively ends the Dolphins’ season.
St. Louis (-3) at Green Bay
You know, I can’t tell you that I have anything even remotely interesting to say about either of these teams. Neither has any balance. Neither can play defense worth a damn. Both give up rushing touchdowns like they’re going out of style. And since St. Louis runs the ball slightly better than Green Bay, I’m gonna take them. But if it goes the other way I won’t be surprised. And I really won’t care. At all.
Tampa Bay (+6) at New Orleans
Welcome to the NFL Mr. Gradkowski. The 300-pound gentleman on top of you? His name is Brian Young. Hurts, don’t it? New Orleans by a touchdown.
Tennessee (+18.5) at Indianapolis
You know what I think when I read about Bud Adams swearing he’s not planning to fire Jeff Fisher? I think there’s a team somewhere in the league (New York? Pittsburgh?) that’s gonna have one hell of a new coach next season. And that’s about the only remotely interesting thing I can think of that’s even tangentially related to this game. Two things I can’t do: Bet on any team (no matter how good they are or how bad their opponent is) to cover an 18.5-point spread in an NFL game. And pick the Tennessee Titans to so much as show up for this game.
Washington (+4.5) at NY Giants
You know who’ll really make you pay for stupid mistakes? The Washington Redskins defense. You know who makes a lot of stupid mistakes? The New York Giants offense. You know who’s rounding back into form really nicely? Clinton Portis. Last weekend against Jacksonville, Portis looked phenomenal, plunging up the middle down after down and finishing with 112 rushing yards and a touchdown on 27 carries (plus, he had another 28 yards on two catches). The Giants’ run D is about as good as the Jaguars, but their pass defense isn’t nearly as good. So even though the Skins are on the road, I’m sort of expecting similar results. I like Washington to come out ahead by a field goal.
Kansas City (-3.5) at Arizona
Can the Chiefs, hot off their week four dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers, continue to tear through the powerhouses of the NFC West? Sure. Does it matter? Not as far as the big (read: playoff) picture goes. Still, a game is a game. Kansas City by a touchdown.
NY Jets (+7) at Jacksonville
I don’t care who’s hurt,. I don’t care that Jacksonville has now lost two straight. The Jags aren’t losing to the Jets. They’re not beating them by more than a touchdown. But they’re not losing to them.
Oakland (+3.5) at San Francisco
You know what? I refuse to have anything to do with thinking about this game. At all. San Fran wins it. I’d have to think about it too much to say by how many points. So I’ll take the Niners to cover, just because I might as well.
Dallas (+2.5) at Philadelphia
Now this game I’ve thought about a lot. An awful lot. And the more I’ve thought about it, the less I’ve cared about what Terrell Owens is going to do vs. his old team. (Well, that’s a bit of a lie. I’ve got T.O. on both of my fantasy teams, so from that perspective, at least, I’m very concerned about what he’d gonna do here.) The point is, I don’t think T.O. will be the guy who wins or loses this game. Owens can have a seven-catch, 100-plus yard day (with or without a TD) and the Cowboys could still lose. Philly just has a way of putting up points. Or the Eagles could completely take T.O. out of the game and still allow Dallas to come out ahead where it counts. Philly just has a way of letting teams stay in games. The player whom I think will swing this game in Dallas’ favor is Marion Barber. Here’s why: The Eagles don’t have much of a pass defense. They allow 244 passing yards a game and have given up five touchdowns in the air this season. And the reason for this is that Philly’s secondary sucks. They attempt to make up for it by blitzing like crazy. And it’s worked OK. After all, the Eagles are 3-1, first in the NFC East. The Eagles also have logged 16 sacks on the season. (The Cowboys, I should note, have given up only three sacks in three games, a fairly amazing accomplishment considering the fact that they’ve got a statue starting under center.) I expect Dallas to counter Philly’s blitz with screens. And since Barber is a damned good outside runner with a good pair of hands, I expect him to be the guy catching those screens. In fact, I expect to see him doing that pretty much all afternoon long, and lifting his team to a half-game lead in the division in the process.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at San Diego
Look, I could break this game down. I could talk about how neither team is gonna have an easy time running the ball, but San Diego’s more likely to get it done than Pittsburgh. I could point out that the Chargers offense has averaged a yard more per carry than the Steelers O, and note that you have to figure the team with LaDainian Tomlinson has a better chance of moving the ball against a tough run D than the team with Willie Parker. And then I could go on and talk about how San Diego, with arguably the best pass defense in the league, has a decided advantage in that aspect of the game over a Pittsburgh D that allows 100 more passing yards per game. But why bother? Because until the Steelers figure out how to run the ball up the middle and take the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger, they’re not gonna win games against good opponents. And that’s all that matters. I’m taking San Diego and giving the points.
Baltimore (+4) at Denver
This makes two weeks in a row that we find the Baltimore Ravens in what stands to be the most interesting game of the week. It also marks the second straight week that the game the Ravens are playing is a statistical dead heat until you get to the giveaway/takeaway ration. Let’s take a look: Denver’s run offense, which has been gaining 4.7 yards per carry, but has only one touchdown on the season, faces a crushing Baltimore run D, which has allowed only 2.6 yards per carry and has given up only one TD on the ground in four games. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ lesser run offense (3.4 yards per carry, two touchdowns) takes on the Broncos somewhat lesser run D (3.9 yards per carry, one TD). Maybe there’s a slight Denver edge there, but I’m not sure. In the passing game, we find a Denver offense that has managed only 176 yards per game and two touchdowns (both vs. New England), crashing into a Baltimore defense that gives up a mere 156 yards per game and has allowed just two touchdowns. Meanwhile the Ravens passing offense, though it has a less than stellar 175 yards per game, has found the end zone five times. It faces a Broncos pass D that has given up 215 yards per game, but only two TDs. Maybe there’s a slight Baltimore edge there, but it’s probably undone by Denver’s home field advantage. Then you get to that giveaway/takeaway and compare Baltimore’s +8 with Denver’s -4. That’s a 12-turnover differential (or, allowing for the fact that Denver has played only three games, a differential of 3.3 turnovers per game) in Baltimore’s favor. Add to that the fact that Steve McNair has done a great job this season of taking his time and making good decisions, whereas Jake Plummer continues to try to do too much and to make mistakes, and I see Baltimore coming out of this game with a victory, if only by a point or two.
