This Football Blog

Hey, I think I’m starting to figure this season out. And now that I’ve said that, you can pretty much assume every one of these week’s game is gonna turn out exactly the way I haven’t predicted below. Here’s what’s probably not gonna happen.

Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay
It’s incredible to think about a week three game having playoff implications, but it’s undeniable that this one does. These teams, both of which were expected by virtually everyone (including me) to battle it out for the NFC South title, have faltered in a big way. One of them is gonna come out of this matchup with an 0-3 record. That means you’re pretty much finished for the season, particularly when you’ve already lost to the Atlanta Falcons, a team likely to come out of this weekend with a record of 3-0 overall and, more important, in the division. The other team is gonna come out 1-2 and still in the hunt for a wildcard berth (and, maybe, just maybe, if Atlanta totally collapses, the division title). Neither team has shown much ability to get things done on offense. And both have been average on defense (numerically speaking). So you take the home team, right? Or you take the team that would have been 1-1 if it hadn’t been for one unbelievably, and uncharacteristically, stupid bit of play calling. Or, as I’m fond of noting, you take the team not quarterbacked by Chris Simms. The Panthers come out ahead (sort of) in two out of three of those categories. So I’m taking them. And since the Bucs’ offense is averaging 1.5 points per game, I’m gonna go ahead and give the three.

Chicago (-3.5) at Minnesota
OK, yes, the Vikings are 2-0 and that’s never a bad thing. And while the teams they’ve beaten to get to 2-0 (Washington and Carolina) don’t have a victory between them at this point, both are teams that were expected by some to at least challenge for their division titles this season. So until we know for certain that both of those teams have tanked, it probably makes sense to assume the Vikings have honestly earned their wins. And they are at home. So there’s that. There’s also the fact that Chicago, while also 2-0, has got their by beating Green Bay and Detroit, clearly two of the worst teams in the league. The Bears probably are, as they’ve appeared thus far, somewhat better than they were last season, which is saying a lot because they certainly didn’t need to improve all that much. But they’ve yet to be truly challenged, so they’ve yet to truly prove anything. Still, I’m taking Chicago straight ahead in this game. Why? Because I just don’t see Minnesota’s offense having much success moving the ball against Chicago’s D, while I think the Bears can manage a few yards (and a few points) against the newly Erasmus James-less Viking’s D. Of course, that’s exactly what the oddsmakers see here, too. So while I’m guessing Minnesota will be able to keep Chicago’s victory margin to half a point less than the spread, I’m certainly not gonna risk any money on this game either way.

Cincinnati (+2) at Pittsburgh
Honestly, if it weren’t for the fact that Cincinnati is facing some fairly significant injuries, I don’t think I’d have much trouble at all picking this game — regardless of where it’s being played. I simply haven’t been at all impressed with Pittsburgh this season. And I’m not just talking about last week at Jacksonville. I’d be hard pressed to judge the Steelers harshly on that performance alone (and I’ll note that the outcome of that game hardly took me by surprise.) As I noted last week, I didn’t think Pittsburgh looked particularly good in their opening night win over Miami. The Steelers didn’t run the ball between tackles much (or well) vs. Miami, and because of their inability to pound the rock, they were unable to establish a ground game vs. Jacksonville. I don’t see much chance of that trend changing with Cincinnati in town. The Bengals don’t defend the run as well as Jacksonville, but they do a much better job of it than Miami. And, unlike both the Jags and the Dolphins (not to mention the Steelers), the Bengals have an offense that has been running in high gear since week one; they can take away the run by forcing you to play catch-up with them on the scoreboard. And the trouble for Pittsburgh comes from the fact that Ben Roethlisberger’s poor performance Monday night wasn’t simply a function of lingering tenderness from his recent appendectomy or of the Jags’ crushing D (though clearly both were factors); it was, at least in part, a result of the fact that Big Ben is a young, slightly better than average quarterback who tends to make mistakes when he’s forced to throw the ball more than 30 times in a game. So what happens here? Well, unless Pittsburgh’s defense comes up very, very big (and the unit indubitably has a propensity to turn games) and keeps Cincinnati from scoring more than, say, 24 points, Roethlisberger is going to be put in a position where he has to throw very often and very accurately. That means picks. Most NFL games are won and lost in the trenches. I expect that fact to be more clearly evident here than it is in many contests. And the outcome is likely going to turn on whether the Bengals’ second-year backup center Eric Ghiaciuc is able to anchor the line well in starter Eric Braham’s absence. I expect Ghiaciuc, who played well against the Jaguars last season in his only NFL start to date, to perform just as well against the Steelers. So I’m taking Cincinnati. And holding my breath.

Green Bay (+6.5) at Detroit
Matt Millen reportedly inquired into the possibility of a trade for disgruntled Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jerry Porter this week. Yeah, Matt, that’s your team’s problem: not enough wide receivers with bad attitudes. What a fuckin’ dolt. The Lions are lucky as hell that they’ve got the awful, awful, awful Green Bay Packers coming into town. Because with the Oakland Raiders on a bye, the Pack is the surest bet to get it’s ass kicked this week no matter what team they’re playing, or where (but especially when Brett Favre is playing on turf; Brett couldn’t play on turf even when he was good). Give the points? I don’t know. Sure. Why not?

Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis
If I’m right about the way this season is heading, this game could be the point at which it starts to become clear that Indy is in for a rough ride. Yeah, as I predicted, the Colts’ running game appeared to kick in last week in Houston, when Indianapolis racked up 125 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. But, as I noted heading into that game, the Texans appear to be entirely powerless to stop the run. And it’s notable that while Philadelphia averaged 4.3 yards per carry against the Texans in week one (that’s 130 yards on 30 carries), Indy only managed 3.6 (125 yards on 35 carries), this despite the fact that Philly, playing on the road, trailed the Texans for a good part of the first half while Indy, playing at home, took a seven-point lead two minutes into the first quarter and never looked back. That is, facing the same opponent Indy had more opportunities to run, ran more often and came up with fewer yards overall and fewer yards per carry. Interestingly enough, the Colts and Eagles have swapped opponents in the first two weeks of this season, each facing the Giants as well as the Texans. So, just to test whether the results vs. Houston may have been a fluke, let’s look at how each team fared on the ground vs. New York. In week one, the Colts managed 55 yards on 23 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per. In week two, the Eagles got 107 yards on 30 carries for 3.6 per. Even considering the fact that Indianapolis had to travel to the Meadowlands while the Eagles got the Giants at home, 1.2 yards per carry is a hell of a gap. Now, with that in mind what do you conclude is gonna happen with the Colts face a Jaguars’ defense that has allowed just 57 rushing yards per game, and 3.2 per carry, in matchups with Dallas and Pittsburgh, teams that are known for their run-first approach to offense? I’m thinking it’s not gonna be pretty. And, as you may have read in this space before, the problem for Indy is that if you can’t run the ball, you can’t sell the play fake. And when Peyton Manning loses the play fake, he becomes a much less effective quarterback. Look, I’m not expecting the Colts to completely fold here, but I am expecting them to have a tougher time of things offensively than they did against the Giants in week one, and that was a game they could easily have lost (some would say should have lost, but that’s nonsense — they won, so no one else should have won). The question, then, is can the Jags’ offense be more effective than it was against Pittsburgh on Monday night? I say of course it can; it’s up against a far less potent D. Though much has been said about what a solid unit it is this season, Indy’s defense still is only truly effective when protecting big leads. The Colts have given up 22.5 points per game so far in a season that included a home game against Houston, that’s not what I call impressive. More to the point, let’s just say that defensively speaking the Colts ain’t the Steelers. Nor, frankly, are they the Cowboys, who are giving up an average of 17 points per game, but allowed the Jags 24 in week one. So, yeah, I like the Jacksonville offense to come alive here. And I like the Jags to pull off the upset. The experts say I’m wrong, but I’ll wait and see for myself if you don’t mind.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Buffalo
Lemme get this straight. I’m supposed to be impressed with the way the Jets offense “came alive” after the Patriots’ defense stopped playing midway through the third quarter last weekend in the Meadowlands. Really? ‘Cause the thing is, I’m not impressed. Not even a little. What I am at least mildly impressed with is the fact that Buffalo actually managed to play the Patriots tough in Foxborough on opening weekend, then went into Miami and manhandled the Dolphins. And, sure, the Fins were clearly grossly overrated heading into the season, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Bills are playing are playing hard and tough for new head coach Dick Jauron. I still don’t expect the Bills to be playing come January, but I’ll take them to stomp on the Jets right now. And I expect them to do it by 10 or more.

Tennessee (+11) at Miami
Wow. Looks like Miami finally gets a win, huh? I mean, you never know. Maybe losing alleged liar Billy Volek will prove to be just what the Titans needed to right their ship. But I’m not counting on it. Are you? (Note: I wouldn’t put an actual dime on this game, but if I were forced to bet, I’d probably take Tennessee to keep it slightly closer than 11.)

Washington (-4) at Houston
Well, one of these teams has to come away with a win, right? I mean, assuming either team can keep its quarterback on his feet long enough to take a snap. These teams have allowed 15 sacks between them over the first two weeks of the season, which is to say they’re O lines suck. Yeah, you can blame Mark Brunell for Washington’s offensive woes if you like (and I’m sure as hell not gonna come to Brunell’s defense here, because his performance this season has stunk out loud), but don’t go thinking it begins and ends there for the Redskins. Don’t go buying into the popular notion that everything wrong with Houston can be traced back to the team’s failure to draft apparent long-time professional athlete Reggie Bush, either. The Texans are in the early stages of a rebuilding period (or a building period, I guess, since rebuilding implies there was something there in the past) and those never start smoothly. And, yet, if it weren’t for the fact that Clinton Portis is due to take his place in Washington’s backfield for the first time this season, I’d be tempted to take the home team here. Still, Portis is due back, so I’m doing the sensible thing and taking the Redskins straight up. I will, however, go with the Texans to keep it to within a field goal.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
OK, then. Now that Kellen Winslow Jr. has officially set Romeo Crennel straight on the way a professional football team should be run, I’m looking for the Browns to turn it on like crazy. Either that or get the living bejesus beat out of them by a Ravens team that is, simply put, superior to the Browns in every aspect of the game (except, OK, maybe not at tight end). Baltimore wins this one by a touchdown.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Seattle
You know, I really want to pick the Giants here. I really do. And part of me feels like I should. The Giants have been playing better football than the Seahawks. Tiki Barber is off to a much better start than Shaun Alexander. And there’s simply no way Deion Branch is gonna make much of a difference in his first game in a Seahawks uniform. Still, the Hawks are at home. The Giants are on the road for the second straight week, and have to travel across the country to get to this game. And the fact of the matter is, the Giants got themselves a big old gift last week in Philadelphia. I don’t see Seattle giving anything away, so I’m guessing the Hawks will tough it out and take this game by a point.

Philadelphia (-6) at San Francisco
The 49ers appear to be coming along quite nicely this season. Alex Smith is starting to play like a pro. Frank Gore’s numbers are impressive. And Vernon Davis is obviously going to live up to his billing sometime in the not-too-distant future. Looks to me like the Niners could potentially end up looking like a real football team again as early as 2007. Trouble is, it’s still 2006 and the Eagles have been starting to look like a real football team again already, their complete collapse last week notwithstanding. Losing Jevon Kearse will hurt over the long term, but it won’t be enough to stop Philly from rolling over San Fran this weekend. I’m giving the points.

St. Louis (+4.5) at Arizona
Here’s a little something I picked up that might help Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast with his game plan (if you know Clancy, maybe you could pass it along): the Rams’ new head coach, Scott Linehan, likes to call pass plays when his team is in red zone. Like, a lot. Like, almost all the time. So, you know, maybe don’t worry too much about stopping Steven Jackson when the Rams are in scoring position. Yeah, Jackson’s good. Really, really good. But he ain’t getting the ball. So there’s that. If you’re reading this to mean I have no faith in St. Louis’ offense this season, you’re reading it right. If you’re reading it to mean I like the Cardinals in this game, you’ve got me there, too. And, sure, I’ll give the points.

Denver (+7) at New England
You know what? Just go ahead and ignore anyone who talks about payback in relation to this game. Yeah, it’s true that Denver eliminated New England from the playoffs last season, ending the Patriots hopes of becoming the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. But the thing is, the Patriots aren’t about payback; they’re about winning football games. They don’t need extra motivation. Plus, there’s very little chance the Patriots hold that game against the Broncos. Chances are better that the Pats coaches and players recognize that winning that game was the Broncos’ job, just as it was theirs. Unlike some teams, the Patriots don’t believe they’re entitled to win games. They operate under the belief that it’s their responsibility to find ways to win them. And it seems to work. All that said, don’t think that playoff loss hasn’t been on the minds of the Pats. Tom Brady doesn’t like to play poorly, as he did in that game, and you can bet he’s analyzed what went wrong there a thousand different ways. Bill Belichick, too. You can also bet that both have found ways to make improvements, Brady by eliminating errors, Belichick, primarily, by finding ways to counter those 11-up blitzes that the Broncos ran so well against the Pats in that game (and that both Buffalo and the New York Jets have employed against them this season). What Belichick’s solution will be I don’t know, but I’m assuming he’ll find one, and I’m guessing that whatever it is it will involve Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney logging even more yards on the ground than they did in weeks one and two. I’m also guessing that the Pats D will concentrate on stopping Denver’s run, much as they did in that playoff game, a tactic that could pay even better dividends in this game considering the fact that Jake Plummer hasn’t been on his game at all so far this season. And I’m guessing it all adds up to a Patriots win by precisely the margin of the spread. That won’t be payback, it’ll just be a win.

Atlanta (-4) at New Orleans
Nice story, isn’t it, about the Saints returning to New Orleans for the first time since Hurricane Katrina? Nice that they come into this game 2-0, too. It’s just too bad the Saints can’t stop the run to save their lives, especially since the Falcons have the league’s top rushing offense. This looks like one ugly homecoming to me. Falcons by two touchdowns.