This Football Blog

Yeah. I don’t know. I don’t have any idea how week one went the way it did. Three shutouts? In the NFL? Eleven games going to the road teams? Seven upsets? I don’t get it. So that’s one more reason you shouldn’t take my advice. Got it? Good. Now here’s what I’m looking forward to (probably not) happening in week two.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Miami
Got Randy McMichael on your fantasy team? Start him. Start him twice if you can. The Bills put Troy Vincent on IR (or something like IR; they’re gonna waive him once he’s healthy, a move that’s gonna cost them something on the order of $2.6 million in real dollars andcap money, apparently — the folks at ProFootballTalk do a good job of explaining how all that works, and assigning blame for the error, if you’re interested in that sort of thing). And since Vincent was pretty much the only guy on their squad who’s got it in him to shut down a tight end like McMichael, Randy seems like a pretty safe bet to have a big day here. As for the rest of the action in this game, I don’t know, I’m kind of expecting a fairly one-sided affair, though I should note that division matchups rarely go that way. Sure, the Bills played at least a solid half of football in New England last week, and damned near pulled off what would have been a giant upset. But Buffalo’s offense only scored one of the team’s two touchdowns that day. And while the other one certainly still counted, it’s the kind of thing that you can’t expect to happen too often. The Bills D caught New England’s O-line napping on the first play of the game and turned it into a seven-point lead with 14:48 remaining in the first quarter. My guess is the Dolphins coaching staff and players noticed that play and won’t put themselves in a position to make a similar mistake. And while Miami certainly didn’t look like a playoff team in it’s loss to Pittsburgh opening night, the Fins have will have had 10 days to rebound from that loss, figure out what they need to do better and work on it. I do expect Miami’s young DBs to continue to make some mental errors, at least for the next few weeks, but I don’t expect those errors to hurt them against the Bills the way they did against the Steelers. I think if Daunte Culpepper can resist the temptation to throw into tight coverage (those Bills DBs are very good) and find his tight end for some nice short gains, and if the Fins can run the ball half as productively against Buffalo as New England did last week, Miami should be able to control the game and put it away by midway through the third. I’m taking the Dolphins straight up. And if I were gonna bet on this game, I’d give the points. But the reason I’m not gonna bet on this game (the big reason, anyhow) is that you simply never can tell what’s gonna happen in these division games.

Carolina (-1.5) at Minnesota
Man, the Panthers didn’t look good at all in that 20-6 home loss to Atlanta last week, did they? I mean, this is supposed to be a Super Bowl contender and they didn’t manage to do one thing well. At home. Minnesota, meanwhile, did a lot of things well. Enough, in fact, to surprise the Washington Redskins on the road Monday night. That’s not so bad. Maybe the Vikings are the real contender here. Still, I’ll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, I’m taking Carolina and giving the point and a half.

Cleveland (+10) at Cincinnati
Man, it’s one thing when big-mouthed NFL players make guarantees they can’t back up for themselves, entirely another when they do it for their teammates. Browns tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., having successfully made it through an NFL game without suffering a season-ending injury, this week guaranteed that his “boy,” cornerback Leigh Bodden, would shut down Bengals receiver Chad Johnson. And while it’s true that Bodden did a remarkable job of covering Johnson last time the teams met, holding Johnson to a season-low 22 yards on two catches, there’s no way to ensure that anyone will ever be able to stop Johnson twice. And it’s certainly not Winslow’s place to make promises for someone else. It’s also worth noting that Johnson’s off-day aside, the Bengals won that December 11 game 23-20. I’m guessing Chad was OK with getting the win even if he didn’t have huge stats. I’m thinking he’ll probably feel pretty good about his team’s win in this game, too, even if he doesn’t have a big day, and even if the victory comes by a margin of somewhat less than 10 points.

Detroit (+9) at Chicago
More guarantees. Roy Williams, who caught three passes for 36 yards at home against the Seahawks last week, has guaranteed a victory for the Lions. I’m not sure why, but I’m not quite ready to put my faith in Roy. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and take the team with the big, crushing defense. You know, the one that hasn’t allowed a point so far this season. And, hell, I’ll give the nine. Sorry, Roy.

Houston (+13) at Indianapolis
Following this game, you’ll probably hear a lot about how the Colts, who couldn’t run the ball to save their lives last weekend in the Meadowlands (Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai combined for 55 yards on 23 attempts — that’s an average of like 2.4 yards per carry — in what, for their team, really was the Manning Bowl), got their running game going against the Texans. Don’t believe it. Or at least keep in mind that these are the same Texans who in week one allowed 130 yards on the ground to the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, a team that prior to that game hadn’t so much as attempted a run play in something on the order of 100 years. All of which is to say that I’ll believe the Colts have found their running game when the crank out some yards against Jacksonville in week three or Denver in week eight and not a minute sooner. All that said, I’m taking the Colts here and giving the points, because, really, who needs a ground game to beat up on the Texans?

New Orleans (-2.5) at Green Bay
You know you’ve passed through the goddamned looking glass when New Orleans is giving two and a half points to the Packers anywhere let alone at Lambeau Field. Still, while it’s mighty tempting to think that Green Bay can’t possibly open its season with two straight losses at home (and equally tempting to look at New Orleans and think about how hard it is to win two straight road games at any point in the season), you can’t assess this game that way. You’ve got to look at things realistically. And what’s real is that the Packers are foundering. They may be the worst team in the league (though that distinction probably belongs to the Oakland Raiders). So, yeah, the Saints are in rebuilding mode and going nowhere. New Orleans’ victory in Cleveland last week probably says more about the state of the Browns than the state of the Saints. But the Packers aren’t even truly rebuilding. Not yet, anyhow. They’ll have officially entered their rebuilding period later in the season when they make the very difficult decision to sit Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers. That move won’t signal that Mike McCarthy believes Rodgers gives the Packers the best chance of winning. It will signal that McCarthy knows he’s gotta see if Rodgers has the stuff to lead his team into the future before he has to decide whether to take Brady Quinn with the number one or number two pick in the 2007 draft (the Raiders likely won’t take Quinn if they end up with the top pick regardless of how badly they need a quarterback, because the Raiders have been shy of drafting QBs in the first round ever since Todd Marinovich’s giant flameout). So, setting the location aside, I see a contest between a team that’s rebuilding on the able shoulders of Reggie Bush and a team that’s collapsing and doesn’t quite know where to turn. I’m taking the guys on the upswing. And if I’m gonna take New Orleans on the road, I guess I might as well give the points.

NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
In week one, the Giants outplayed the Indianapolis Colts in just about every aspect of the game and still came away with a loss. That’s rough, but it happens. The Eagles, meanwhile, victimized the crap out of a Houston Texans team that’s still got a long way to go in its rebuilding process. You take the win, but maybe don’t get too worked up about how it means your team is back on track and poised to storm the very tough NFC East. If the Giants can run the ball nearly as well as they did against the Colts, and take the run away from the Eagles half as well as they took it away from Indy, they own this thing. If they can’t, the Eagles probably come out ahead in a close one (maybe by a point). In the end, I simply have more faith in New York, so I’m looking for the upset.

Oakland (+11.5) at Baltimore
My answers to the two big questions concerning Oakland this week. 1) Was Jerry Porter really cheering as his teammates took a beating at the hands of the San Diego Chargers or was he (as he claims) just goofing around with fans and not paying attention to the game? What the fuck does it matter? One way or the other, you’ve got a very highly paid wide receiver contributing nothing because he’s in a snit over his coach’s demand that he act like a member of a team. Porter’s talented, but he’s a become a problem. 2) What happened to the Raiders’ offense? Here’s what: they hired a guy who’s been running a bed and breakfast for the past decade as coordinator. Why on earth should anyone be surprised that what they produced was a giant bagel? OK, and they’ve got Aaron Brooks at QB. And an offensive line that apparently doesn’t get that it’s job is to stop defensive linemen from getting to their quarterback. (I mean, the Chargers have some terrific pass rushers and all, but nine fucking sacks? You’ve gotta be kidding me, right?) Oh, right, and then there’s the other team playing in this game. The home team. The one lots of people (including me) expected to be much improved with Steve McNair under center. The one some people (including me) expect to make the playoffs this year. The one almost no one, including me, expected to beat, let alone blank, the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last weekend. So how do you think that same team fare’s against the gang that couldn’t shoot straight? Yeah, that’s what I figured. I’m giving the 11 and a half, too.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Atlanta
The Buccaneers have had Atlanta’s number ever since Jon Gruden rolled into Florida, which is nice for the Bucs and has absolutely nothing to do with this game. Until I see otherwise, and until Cadillac Williams’ back problems go away, I’m taking the team not quarterbacked by Chris Simms or the team that shut down the Carolina Panthers last weekend. Look at it however you want. Atlanta by three.

Arizona (+7) at Seattle
My god, am I tempted to put some money on Arizona with the points. I mean, it’s not like I expect Seattle to go another week without scoring a touchdown or anything. And it’s not like I’m not aware of the fact that Shaun Alexander has had some his best games against the Cardinals. So, O-line problems notwithstanding, I’m expecting Seattle to put up some points here. Enough points to win the game, probably. (The Seahawks are at home, after all.) But I’m also gonna go out on a limb and guess that Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James can have some success against Seattle’s D, which is to say I think the Cards can almost keep pace with the Hawks. Actually, now that I think if it, maybe what I’ll do is take Seattle straight up, Arizona with the points on paper, and put my money on the over (the line is 47). Yeah, that sounds like a plan.

St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco
You know, I thought about using this space to implore Scott Linehan (who doubtless takes time out of his busy coaching schedule to read this blog) to run the damned ball if his team gets inside the 49ers’ 10 yard line, but you know what? Never mind. The Niners gave up three passing touchdowns to the Cardinals from the same distance last week. Just do your thing, Scott. It’ll work like a charm this week. And we can revisit the topic as you prepare to face Arizona (which has a habit of allowing TDs on the ground) in week three. Translation: I’m taking the Rams and giving the points.

Kansas City (+10.5) at Denver
Under normal circumstances, you’d have to believe a team (Denver) that gave up 5.5 yards per carry in week one might run into trouble against a team that features Larry Johnson at running back. But you know what? There’s a reason LJ didn’t do terribly well when the Chiefs hosted Cincinnati last week. Once Trent Green was knocked out (literally) in the middle of the third quarter, Johnson became the only guy on Kansas City’s offense that the Bengals had to worry about, which made it a lot easier to slow him down. Larry’s the whole KC offense for the whole game this weekend, which means you probably shouldn’t expect Denver’s D to repeat its disappointing performance. And since the Chiefs’ D hasn’t managed to stop anything this season, I expect both Jake Plummer and the running Bells (Mike and Tatum) to come up big. I’m not gonna give ten and a half points in a division matchup, but I will take the Broncos straight up.

New England (-6) at NY Jets
I’m not nearly as worried about the Patriots in the wake of last week’s ugly win over Buffalo and Monday’s trade of Deion Branch to Seattle as some folks seem to be. The Pats began to find their way after half time in the season opener. It wasn’t much, but it was all they needed. And 183 yards on the ground looks pretty impressive to me no matter how small the team’s margin of victory. Neither am I nearly as impressed by the Jets and Chad Pennington as some folks seem to be. Yes, Chad had a very nice day throwing short passes against the Tennessee Titans. The team fared far better than I expected them to. So what? What I saw on the highlight reel was Pennington floating an awful lot of passes out there. Some of those balls just seemed to freeze in midair and wait for a receiver to get to them. I hope Chad throws a few of those against the Pats. I’d hope it even more if I had the Patriots’ D on one of my fantasy teams. I don’t. So I’ll settle for watching Tom Brady return to form, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney continue to burn up the turf, and the Pats run away with a victory by two touchdowns.

Tennessee (+11.5) at San Diego
Not to San Diego: don’t expect the Titans to be as easy to victimize as the Raiders were. Note to Tennessee: don’t expect the Chargers to take it as easy on you as the Jets did. Philip Rivers isn’t even a factor here. LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers D make it a long, long, ugly day for the Titans, who lose this one by 20.

Washington (+6) at Dallas
Somewhere in that 700-page playbook of his, Al Saunders probably has a play that will work. He might even find it this week. But it won’t be enough. Expect Terrell Owens to have a huge day against a Redskins’ D that gave up 77 yards to Troy Williamson on Monday night. Washington will keep this one competitive, but they’ll fall by a field goal (assuming there’s someone in Dallas who can kick a field goal).

Pittsburgh (-1) at Jacksonville
There are plenty of people out there who were extremely impressed by Pittsburgh’s performance against Miami September 7. I don’t happen to be one of them. What some people saw was a running back, Willie Parker, who logged 115 yards on 29 carries (for a nifty average of 3.9 yards per run). What I saw was a guy who did an awful lot of running to the outside and very little up the middle. That’ll work against an aged defensive front like Miami’s. Not so much when you’re facing younger, quicker, more athletic guys like the ones Jacksonville has in its front seven. Some folks saw Steelers backup QB Charlie Batch hook up with tight end Heath Miller for a spectacular 87-yard touchdown. I saw Miami’s young DBs so thoroughly messing up a play that no one was anywhere near Miller, then failing to pursue the lumbering TE at anything that approached full speed. Then I saw the officials award a TD to Miller despite the fact that he’d clearly stepped out of bounds at the Miami 5 yard line, and Dolphins coach Nick Saban make the most half-hearted attempt to challenge a call that I’ve ever seen. Some folks also saw Pittsburgh’s defense making spectacular plays late in the game. I saw Daunte Culpepper trying to win a game all by himself and, in the end, putting the ball in the hands of a linebacker. That is, I’m not sure I saw Pittsburgh win so much as I saw Miami lose. I know that what I saw in the Dallas-Jacksonville matchup three days later was a tough, talented young team digging in and finding a way to overcome a 10-point deficit, rattle a veteran quarterback and make a solid second-half performance by the best wide receiver in the league irrelevant. I’m taking the team that did all that good stuff, especially since they’re at home.