This Football Blog

What a great day of football Saturday was. Well, Saturday afternoon, anyhow. And half of Saturday night — the half before the Bills did their usual crumble. (If ya wanna know what I had to say in advance of those games, you’ve gotta scroll down to Week Fifteen, Part One from yesterday.) Should be some great games ahead today, too. This is why I love December. This is what I see happening today (oh, yeah, and in tomorrow night’s yawn-fest):

Arizona (-1) at Houston
Maybe what you do if you’re the new coach of the Houston Texans come draft time is trade down. I mean, say you’re content with David Carr under center. And say you figure Domanick Davis is a dandy running back. Well, then what you need to do is address your horrific problems on the offensive line, right? I mean, clearly a huge factor in the Texans’ miserable failure of a 2005 season has been the complete inability of anyone on the line to block. So if that’s what you’re thinking, and you’ve got the first overall pick in the draft, my guess is that there are gonna be plenty of teams that want Reggie Bush or Matt Leinart enough to give away lots of picks in order to move up. So you trade down, pick up as many solid O linemen as you can (or as many as you need after you’ve had a go at a few in free agency) and take it from there. Now, me, I’d take Reggie Bush at number one and figure I can find line help in later rounds and in the free agent market. I’d think, well, if guys like LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander can make such huge differences for their teams, I want a guy like that. And I’m not entirely sure Davis is one of those guys (I think he’s a fine running back, who’d do really well on a lot of teams, but I’m not sure he’s an L.T. type). But, ah, that’s all a matter for another day. Another year, really. For now, I see a big week on tap for Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as the Cards cruise to victory by a touchdown or better.

Carolina (-9) vs. New Orleans at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
It’s not like I’m a huge Aaron Brooks fan or anything — the guy’s a stat machine, sure, but he just doesn’t seem to have that added whatever it is (leadership, toughness, competitive edge, eye of the fucking tiger bullshit) that you’ve gotta have to succeed as a quarterback in the NFL — but it seems to me that switching to Todd Bouman at quarterback is unlikely to make the Saints a better team. Of course, I’m not sure what would make the Saints a better team at this point, short of sweeping changes in personnel, coaching, management and ownership. And most of that stuff isn’t about to happen. So of course I like the Panthers to get back on track here and retake the lead in the NFC south. Giving nine on the road? I’m not so sure. But I guess, given that neither team’s truly at home and we are talking about the Saints, if I had to make a bet, I’d go ahead and give the points.

Dallas (+3) at Washington
The Redskins have to win out to have any shot at making the post-season. That means beating the Cowboys here, the Giants in Washington next week and the Eagles in Philadelphia in week 17. So that’s not gonna happen. And, inc fact, it’s gonna not happen starting right here. The Skins are in collapse. The ‘Boys are on the ascent. The proof is in the playing, and the Cowboys take this one by four.

NY Jets (+9) at Miami
So it looks for all the world like the AFC East is gonna be a bit more interesting next season. Nick Saban, in his first year as head coach, has already begun to turn the Dolphins around. He’s a quarterback and a few defensive tweaks away from having a dangerous team, and there’s no reason to expect he won’t fit those pieces into the puzzle in the off-season. Right now, though, the Dolphins are one loss, or one Patriots win, away from playoff elimination. And my guess is the Pats win will have come before the Fins get a chance to keep their minor hopes alive by taking one from the hapless Jets. Of course, the Dolphins still should beat the Jets, though I don’t’ see them winning by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Minnesota
Fred Smoot has gotta be a complete dipshit. Insists he had nothing to do with the whole so-called Love Boat scandal, then it turns out the boats were reserved with his credit card. (Someone in the locker room swipe your wallet there, Fred?) Then, when he’s one of four guys — along with Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams and Bryant McKinnie — who get hit with criminal charges as a result of the whole mess (indecent conduct, disorderly conduct, and lewd or lascivious conduct) his biggest concern is finding out which of his teammates sold him down the river. Way to start repairing your image, there, Freddy. But that’s the theme of this Vikings team, I guess. It’s just top-to-bottom dipshits from the coach on down. And, you know, this ought to be the week that the dipshit squad’s run of good luck hits an end. The Steelers certainly aren’t gonna give away a victory like the Giants, the only good team the Vikings have beaten in their recent charge back to playoff contention. The Vikes are gonna have to earn this one. And given the way Pittsburgh played a week ago, it appears earning a win isn’t gonna be easy for Minnesota. Still, I like the Vikings chances to get it done here. I think Brad Johnson will find a way to move the ball against the Steelers D, taking advantage of the Pittsburgh secondary’s at times over-aggressive pursuit of the ball. And I think the Vikings D, which seems to be improving on a weekly basis, will find a way to get to Ben Roethlisberger (shhh, Bill Cowher doesn’t want anyone talking about his bad thumb) and force him to make some ill-advised throws for a guy with his (shhh) injury. So I’m taking Minnesota to pull off the upset.

San Diego (+7.5) at Indianapolis
So here’s the deal, Tony: 1) The Patriots have made it clear they’re for real. And chances are, they’re gonna be headed your way in four weeks. 2) You go all out in pursuit of a record and you are tempting fate in a majorly way. You’ve got bigger fish to fry and you know it. 3) You know damned well that the Chargers gonna be bringing everything they’ve got on both sides of the ball, especially given the window that was opened for them in New York on Saturday. So what are you gonna do? You gonna keep your starters in the game from end to end when they’ve got nothing real to play for (I’m sorry, but 16-0 ain’t real enough)? Or are you gonna play it smart and start getting ready for a team you’ve never been able to get past in the playoffs? My guess, Tony, is that, being the smart coach you are, you’re gonna give your fellas a half to stay in shape, telling them not to do anything stupid, then turn it over to the backups. And my gut says the Chargers stay with you through the half, then surge ahead to wrap it up. I say the Colts go to 13-1 this week. And we can all finally stop talking about what if.

Seattle (-7) at Tennessee
The Seahawks can wrap up home field throughout the playoffs with a win here and a Chicago loss to Atlanta on Sunday night. They wrap up a bye week in the playoffs just by winning this game. I think they’re gonna have to settle for the latter (see my pick on Atlanta/Chicago below), which I’m sure they’ll take happily. The Titans, meanwhile, press forward toward a very nice pick in the 2006 draft. If they use it well, they could make their way back into playoff contention by 2008. I’m taking the ‘Hawks and giving the touchdown.

San Francisco (+15.5) at Jacksonville
Jacksonville, with its amazingly soft schedule going forward (the Jags travel to Houston next week, then wrap up at home against the Titans), would appear to be headed for the AFC five seed. The prize? A first round trip to lovely Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on the newly resurgent defending champion New England Patriots. That’s a fine how do you do, isn’t it, Jack? So do I think the Jaguars cover the college spread here? Uh, sure. Why not? But I wouldn’t put money on any NFL team giving those kind of points. Not ever.

Cincinnati (-8) at Detroit
Apparently a bunch of Lions fans who want Matt Millen fired are gonna wear Bengals colors to this game. I understand the sentiment entirely, but, folks, do you really wanna take it that far? Those Bengals colors ain’t pretty. Not one bit. Of course, neither will this game be. I’m taking Cincinnati and expecting them to win by at least ten.

Cleveland (+3) at Oakland
Looks like Romeo Crennel has himself a quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Charlie’s played well against tough opponents in his first two NFL starts. Nice going, Romeo. I expect you guys will prosper together. The Raiders, meanwhile, are taking the back to the future approach at the most important position in the game, putting Kerry Collins back in at quarterback a week after pledging to go with Marques Tuiasosopo through the rest of the season. Norv Turner apparently figures Kerry gives him the best chance of winning games now. And Norv’s gonna need to have as many wins as possible on his record when he’s out looking for a new job in the off-season. I think Norv and Kerry get a win in one of their last games together here, though not an easy win. I think it’s a push against the spread. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Charlie and the Cleveland gang manage to pull off the upset.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at St. Louis
Hey, Eagles, turns out you guys really kinda hurt Terrell Owens’ feelings last season. Maybe that’s why he’s been acting out so much. Ever think of that, ya big bullies? Also, some attention-starved NAACP guy wants everyone to know he doesn’t think Donovan McNabb’s a very good black guy or a very good quarterback. So there. Is it just that no one in Philadelphia can bear to think about football anymore? Is that it? This is one of the only times this season I’ve gone this route, but I’m taking the Rams and giving the points. I just don’t see what other choice I have.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Chicago
So the obvious key matchup here is Atlanta’s extremely productive offense (the best rushing offense in the league) against Chicago’s stingy, league-leading D, a defense that’s given up an average of 3.5 yards per carry and just six touchdowns on the ground this season. But you know what I think? I think the matchup to watch is the Chicago offense, which has been anything but productive (averaging just 16 points a game, which is eight fewer than Atlanta), against Atlanta’s so-so, 18th-ranked D. The Bears run the ball fairly well (4.3 yards per carry, while Atlanta does an exceedingly poor job of stopping the run (giving up 4.6 yards per rush). And while Chicago hasn’t given Kyle Orton a chance to throw deep all that much, I think they might given Atlanta’s hot-and-cold secondary. If the Bears do test the secondary, and the defense is able to do its usual thing, keeping the Falcons out of the end zone and picking off balls at key moments, I think it could be a long night for Atlanta. And that’s just what I see happening. Chicago by six.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Baltimore
Another Monday night gem. Thanks, ABC. Thanks so very much. I’ll take the Packers straight up and the Ravens to cover. And that’s exactly all I have to say about this mess.