This Football Blog

You know, as it turns out, I’m not sure I have a whole lot to say about this week’s games. Seems to me those big spreads are there for pretty good reasons (well, most of them, anyhow). And when you see college spreads on professional games this late in the season, it’s kinda hard to say, well, this team’s O is just starting to come on or that team’s D is finally beginning to click. Yeah, there are some teams that are better now than they were a month ago, but the oddsmakers have figured it all out. And while there’s never really any accurate way to say how any team is gonna do in relation to a 16-point spread, it’s pretty clear that most of these games are gonna be won by the favorites. Except for one or two. I think I know what one of the upsets will be. The other is anyone’s guess. Here’s what I see:

Chicago (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
Here’s your upset. Right out of the box. Look, I’m sorry but I don’t give half a damn about the fact that Chicago doesn’t score a lot of points. It hasn’t mattered much so far this season. And I’m not exactly expecting a big scoring day for Pittsburgh. Setting aside the fact that the Bears’ D just doesn’t give up points (10.6 per game, kids), consider the fact that the Steelers are being quarterbacked by a guy who’s probably gonna need surgery in the off-season to fix a severe thumb injury on his throwing hand. So the guy who threw three picks playing with his thumb in a splint last week is now gonna try to get it done against a defense that’s tops in the league, that has 18 interceptions on the season and that has allowed only four rushing touchdowns all season? And he’s gonna lead his team to victory by a margin of greater than five and a half points? Not on this planet, my friends. Not on this planet. The Bears win this one 10-3.

Cleveland (+11.5) at Cincinnati
So maybe Cincinnati’s not gonna collapse this season after all. Or at least not until they get to the playoffs. Good for them. I hope they get to the Super Bowl (if only because I’d rather they went than Indianapolis or Denver). I also hope Romeo Crennel’s squad makes it tough for the Bengals to put the division away. So I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover and hope it’s closer than that.

Houston (+6.5) at Tennessee
So if you’re Houston’s next coach do you give David Carr another shot at making it work and take Reggie Bush with the number one pick in the draft? Or do you just go ahead and figure Carr’s a lost cause and take Matt Leinart. And that, folks, sums up about the only remotely interesting thing one can possibly say about either of these teams. Sad but true. As for the game, look for the relatively less awful Titans to win and cover.

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville
You’re right, Jacksonville does have a history of playing Indy tough. And, yes, Jacksonville is definitely fighting for a wild card slot (which they’re probably gonna get no matter what happens here). And, yes, that’s true, too. The Jags are playing at home. So, sure, I can see why it’s tempting to pick an upset here. I hope it goes that way. But it isn’t going to. Indianapolis clinches home field advantage through the playoffs with a win here, and that’s all the motivation the Colts should need. Indy will lose one or two of their final three games, but that’s a story for another day. (Note to Tony Dungy: If you clinch home field and you decide to play for a record instead of for a championship, you are courting a disaster of incredible proportion.) Today, it’s all about getting a step closer to what the Colts have been working for all season. Jacksonville fights hard and stays in the game, but Indianapolis wins this one by a touchdown.

New England (-4) at Buffalo
Are the Bills unraveling? Does Eric Moulds’ one-game suspension point to fatal discord within the Buffalo organization? I don’t know, and I mostly don’t care. (I’ll be interested, though, to see whether Mike Mularkey and Tom Donahoe still have jobs come February.) Are the Pats kicking into gear just in time to make a big run into the post-season? I hope so, but I don’t know. What I do know is what I told you two weeks ago: the Patriots are going to win their last five games of the season. This is one of those. And they’ll win the game by three.

Oakland (-3) at NY Jets
Two things I’m excited about regarding this game. First, LaMont Jordan gets his chance to show his old team what he’s capable of. (It’s not that I think Jordan should have started for the Jets in front of Curtis Martin. Curtis has been one of the best running backs in the game for a good long while. You can’t take anything away from him. It’s just, well, you know, Jordan’s a damned fine rusher in his own right who never got a chance in New York, much to Oakland’s ongoing benefit.) Second, Marques Tuiasosopo finally gets a real chance to start under center. I’ve been waiting to see that for a long time. And I’m counting on him to light it up against my least favorite team in the league. I think he will. I’m taking Oakland and expecting them to win by two touchdowns.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Minnesota
Why, oh, why do I have to endure so-called professional sports broadcasters (by which I mean members of what Howard Cosell called the jockocracy) going on about how Mike fucking Tice “has to be” considered a coach of the year candidate if the Vikings are able to salvage their season? Tice? Tice? What is Tice, guys, your fucking hook? You’ve gotta say nice things about him or he doesn’t set you up with whatever it is he’s got a line on? Or is it just that he didn’t sell everyone he’d ever met down the river when he got tagged for scalping Super Bowl tickets, something every damned one of you has probably done at some point? It’s gotta be something like that. Because the truth of the matter is that Mike Tice is the main reason the Vikings ended up in a 2-5 hole to begin with. Outside of Matt Millen, Tice is the most incompetent individual in the NFL. Coach of the year, indeed. As noted here previously, the Vikings, thanks to Brad Johnson’s solid decision making on the field, should win just enough games to buy Tice, the non-leader (read: “players coach”) another season on the sidelines. And mark my words, whatever the Vikes finish at this season, (9-7? 10-6?), they’ll finish the 2006 season with two fewer wins. And it’ll keep going that way until Zygi Wilf recognizes he’s got a loser at the helm and makes a change. For now, look for the winning streak to go to 6 as the Rams lose this game by 10 or so.

Tampa Bay (+5) at Carolina
This game is, for all intents and purposes, the match to decide the NFC South, Atlanta having proven itself to be a non-factor. Could be a great game, too. You’ve got two of the league’s best defensive squads facing two of its most consistently inconsistent offenses. The Panthers pass better. The Bucs run better. The Panthers stop the run better. The Bucs stop the pass better. Both Ds allow just better than 16 points a game. But the Panthers do outscore the Bucs by just a little more five points per game (24.2 on average as compared to 18.8). And, of course, the Panthers are at home. And there, I think, is the difference. I like Carolina to outlast Tampa Bay by a field goal.

NY Giants (-9) at Philadelphia
So I guess all those questions about whether Philly’s era of dominance in the NFC East have been answered, eh? Getting nine points at home. Man, that’s gotta smart. And even though the Giants don’t play their best football on the road, it seems like with the way the Eagles have been playing of late all you can really do is take New York and give the points.

San Francisco (+16) at Seattle
Seattle, another team that apparently isn’t going to collapse in the regular season this year (curiouser and curiouser) moves a step closer to securing home field through the playoffs (and with the only tough game left on their schedule a week 16 showdown with the Colts, who’ll be resting starters if Tony Dungy has half a brain, you’ve gotta expect Seattle will manage to get home field, though it’ll be in question right up until week 17). San Francisco, meanwhile, keeps itself in serious contention for the rights to Reggie Bush. Do you give the points? I don’t know. Sixteen is an awful lot in an NFL game. Toss a coin. Mine came down no.

Washington (-4) at Arizona
I don’t wanna talk about this game. Can I not talk about this game? I don’t think the Redskins are worth a damn at this point in the season, but the fact of the matter is that neither are the Cardinals. And while both teams play pretty consistently average to below average on offense, the Skins have had a fairly less poor D. So, OK, I’ll take Washington straight up, but I don’t see them beating anyone by more than four on the road.

Baltimore (+14.5) at Denver
The Broncos take an easy step toward a bye week and a home game in January. Denver averages about 13 points a game more than Baltimore, but, you know, I’ve gotta think they can pad that average by three or so here.

Kansas City (+3) at Dallas
So I guess I was wrong about Kansas City losing its last five games, huh? Maybe its last four? Or maybe the Chiefs are better than I gave them credit for being. Looks like I’ve also been wrong in my contention that the Cowboys were the team to beat in the NFC East, and possibly a Super Bowl contender. Oh, well, I can live with Dallas being worse than I’d expected. I’m not so sure I’m comfortable with the idea of Kansas City being better than I expected, though. And that’s OK, because I’m still not sure they’re all that much better. Scoring averages put this one about even. Kansas City scores four more points per game, and allows four more points per game. But this one’s in Dallas. And unlike the Giants, who made the Cowboys look foolish last week, the Chiefs don’t have a great pass rush. And that, I think, makes the difference. Look for Drew Bledsoe to have a much better day this week, while the Cowboys find a way to slow down Larry Johnson (not stop him, mind you, just slow him down a bit). Take Dallas straight up and expect a push against the spread.

Miami (+13) at San Diego
The Chargers are coming on strong as the playoffs approach, disproving my theory early on that they’d fall apart as the season wore on and their blocking schemes broke down. (Oh, well, maybe next year.) San Diego has what could be a brutal schedule ahead. They travel to Indianapolis next week (though the Colts, having clinched home field through the playoffs this week, will be resting starters if Tony Dungy has half a brain), then to Kansas City (for a showdown that could decide who gets the AFC six seed) and then go home to host the Broncos, who could still be fighting for a playoff bye. So the Chargers know they’ve gotta win this one, and I expect them to run all over a Dolphins team that is, after all, still rebuilding. Big spreads still make me nervous, but I’ll go ahead and give the damned points.

Detroit (+6) at Green Bay
Another gem of a Sunday night matchup. Man, these TV guys sure know how to put together the great prime time entertainment, don’t’ they? I think I’ve got holiday baking to do or something. Shit, which team will lose this game? Hmmm. Take the Pack. Give the points. And plan to turn in early, because it’s just never gonna turn into a good game.

New Orleans (+10.5) at Atlanta
Another gem of a Monday night matchup. Man, these TV guys sure know how to put together the great prime time entertainment, don’t’ they? Atlanta keeps its playoff fantasies alive for another week (or two) by temporarily pulling even with Tampa Bay. I don’t know about the points. Give ’em if you want. It’s all the same to me.