This Football Blog

Not an easy week to pick. Not by any stretch. You’ve got division matchups. You’ve got quarterbacks with bad thumbs starting, quarterbacks with bad knees maybe starting, quarterbacks with bad quarterbacking ability starting all over the place, rookies and backups stepping in. It’s entirely possible every single game will go exactly as I don’t expect. Dunno. Here’s what I expect to happen, or possibly not:

Atlanta (+3) at Carolina
Yes, I’m aware of how Atlanta has had Carolina’s number for the past few years. And I’m aware of how poorly the Carolina offense has played over the last two weeks in Chicago and Buffalo. But I’m also aware of the fact that the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, a unit that’s particularly strong against the run (giving up only 82.4 yards a game and 3.4 per carry). And given that Atlanta’s offense relies heavily on the ground game (the Falcons have the best rushing offense in the league, whereas their passing game is ranked 28th in yards per game and 23rd in yards per attempt), one has to expect they’ll struggle to make things happen against that Carolina D. Something else I’m aware of is the fact that the Falcons have a habit of coughing the ball up. They’ve given away 11 fumbles this season whereas the Panthers have taken 13 fumbles away from opponents. Most important, however, is that I’m acutely aware of the fact that the Falcons have been unable to beat good teams all season long. And since the Panthers, while maybe not as good as they appeared to be a few weeks back, are unquestionably a good team, I have to like their chances. I’m taking Carolina and expecting them to win it by about a touchdown.

Buffalo (+5) at Miami
I love that this game is being sold as a battle of teams that maybe could salvage their seasons and make a bid for the playoffs. After all, the argument says, with the Patriots playing relatively poorly and lots of divisional games still to be played, it’s conceivable that either of these 4-7 squads could steal the division if they win out. What? Come on, now. Let’s be serious. Putting all else aside (like the fact that the Patriots’ schedule gets really soft starting this week), neither of these teams is winning out. After this week, Buffalo hosts New England and Denver and travels to Cincinnati (before closing versus the Jets in New Jersey). I guarantee the Bills are losing two and quite possibly all three of those games. The Dolphins’ chances are slightly better, since they host the Jets and Titans in weeks 15 and 16. But they have to travel to San Diego next week and to Foxboro in week 17. Those are both losses. Does that mean there’s nothing exciting about this game? Hardly. This is a good matchup that pits a team on the ascent (Miami) against a team on the decline (Buffalo) at the exact moment when they’re passing each on the way up and down the rankings. At least on paper, the teams are very evenly matched on defense, right in the middle of the NFL pack (though it’s worth noting here that Buffalo’s D has been amazing at home and terrible on the road). Both allow about 323 yards and 20 points per game. Miami’s been stronger on offense, however, logging 315 yards and nearly 18 points per game to Buffalo’s 244 and not quite 15. And it’s notable that the better part of Miami’s offense is its ground game, while Buffalo’s D has struggle terribly against the run. The Bills allow 4.7 yards per carry, 146 yards per game and have given up 15 rushing touchdowns; the Dolphins’ running backs average 4.5 yards per carry and 117 yards per game. The Fins have only rushed for seven touchdowns this season, but, as noted here previously, Miami offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a habit of calling pass play after pass play on the goal line (which is one of the reasons Miami is 4-7 right now instead of 5-6 or 6-5). I expect Miami to be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s weakness against the run, and while I expect the game to stay fairly competitive through the first two or two and a half quarters, I think Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and the Fins will eventually run away with this one, winning by about 10 points.

Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh
So let me get this straight: I’m supposed to believe that Pittsburgh’s poor showing Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts indicates that the Steelers are headed for a loss to the Bengals? Sorry, folks, but I’m just not buying it. To begin with the obvious, the Bengals are, um, not the Colts. Not even a little. And more to the point, the Steelers are most decidedly not the Baltimore Ravens. Why does that matter? Well, does my memory fail me or didn’t the Bengals D just give up 29 points to a Ravens offense that had been scoring all of 11.6 points per game heading into last week? And didn’t they do that in the Bengals’ home stadium? And, wait, hasn’t Pittsburgh been putting up roughly double the points per game Baltimore has? And giving up three fewer points per game than Baltimore, too boot? And didn’t the Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season? And hasn’t Cincinnati managed to lose pretty much every time it’s faced a good opponent all season long? So where is it again that so many people are getting the notion that an upset is brewing here? It isn’t. I’m taking the Steelers straight up and looking for a push versus the spread.

Dallas (+3) at NY Giants
This is one of those games where I have to pick what I think is going to happen rather than what I hope will happen. I don’t like the Cowboys. Never have, going back to the days when they billed themselves as America’s Team (says who, assholes?). And I’ve picked up more reasons to dislike them over the years. I think their owner will probably hurt the game over the long term (I worry about how his short-sighted, self-serving approach will manifest itself as league-first, long-view owners like Wellington Mara continue to pass on or leave the league). And I hate their coach’s fucking guts. (I used to just think Parcells was just a jerk, but then he pulled the rug out from under his then-team, the Patriots, on the eve of Super Bowl XXXI, and I’ve wished him nothing but failure and misery since.) My continuing affection for Drew Bledsoe has softened me on the Boys a bit (if they win the Super Bowl, which I think could happen, I’ll be happy for Drew), but it hasn’t made me a Cowboys fan. Nothing ever will. On the other hand, I like the Giants. Always have. Even when that asshole Bill Parcells was coaching them (partially because I didn’t know what an asshole he was at the time). I like the Giants even though I found Eli Manning’s little prima donna bullshit act around the 2004 NFL draft offensive. (I never quite respected John Elway after he pulled that kind of crap and I’ll never quite respect Eli, either. Plus, I kind of find the whole Manning clan a bit self-satisfied and whiny.) So what I’d like to see is a Giants win by three times the spread. But what I expect to see is a Cowboys victory. Why? Well, I haven’t been overly impressed with the Giants of late. Their play has been sloppy. They’ve let games they should have won get away from them. The Cowboys, meanwhile, impress me more with each passing week. I think Dallas will have some success running the ball early in the game, which should slow down the Giants’ impressive pass rush just enough to let Bledsoe complete some big passes. And I think the Cowboys young but quite good, and ever-improving, defense will find a way to exploit some mistakes by Manning. Add those things together and you get Dallas winning the game and putting an effective stranglehold on the NFC East.

Green Bay (+7) at Chicago
The Bears score 16.5 points a game and allow fewer than 11. The Packers score about 21 and allow about 20 (and yet, they’re 2-9). These teams aren’t as far apart as their records would indicate, but they are exactly as far about as their stats indicate. So I’m taking the Bears straight up, the Pack with the points. ‘Cause that’s what the numbers tell me to do.

Houston (+8.5) at Baltimore
Is there a team in football that like losing as much as the Houston Texans? Here’s a team that last week took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter at home against a team being quarterbacked by a rookie out of Harvard (yes, the birthplace of American football, but not exactly a modern day pro prospect factory) and still managed to lose the goddamned game. Baltimore, meanwhile, put up 29 second-half points last week at Cincinnati after falling behind by 34. The Ravens still lost, of course, but at least they showed they’re gonna stay competitive no matter what. And with that in mind, how do you think this game is gonna turn out? My money’s on the Ravens. And while I don’t even trust Baltimore to score eight and a half points total most weeks, I’ll go ahead and give that many this time out.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Cleveland
You know what? I like Dave Garrard. I don’t think he’s Byron Leftwich or anything, but I do think he’s a way better quarterback than the starters for at least half a dozen and maybe 10 or 12, teams in the league. And I like his chances against Cleveland’s 13th-ranked pass D a lot better than I like rookie Charlie Frye’s chances facing Jacksonville’s second-ranked pass D in what will be his first NFL start (if he starts, that is; it appears he will given Trent Dilfer’s knee injury, but Romeo Crennel isn’t saying for sure). Indeed, I like Garrard so much I’m starting him over that useless bum Kerry Collins for one of my fantasy teams. So there. Take that, Kerry. Oh, right, the game. I’m taking Jacksonville and giving the points.

Minnesota (-2) at Detroit
I’ve got an idea. Instead of everyone in the pro-football media engaging in lengthy discussions about whether Matt Millen will still be GM of the Lions come January or February, how about cutting right to the chase and having a discussion of whether anyone in the Ford family has half a brain. Seems like it should be simpler for those who know the Fords to answer. And it answer’s the Millen question. Because if the answer is yes, there is half a brain there someplace, then Millen is gone. He’s about as bad an executive as you’ll find anywhere in the NFL. He makes terrible draft decisions. He’s got the wrong on-field personnel in place for the kind of offense he wants to run. The team is 20-55 under his direction. They’ve gone through coach after coach trying to fix the problem. And no coach who has the potential to bring the team around is going to go anywhere near Detroit as long as Millen remains in place, guaranteeing failure for everyone. So you tell me: Will the Fords be smart enough to dump Millen or won’t they? I don’t know. I also don’t know if new Vikings owner Zygi Wilf will be smart enough to recognize that, despite his team’s recent resurgence, he’s still gotta dump his bum of a head coach, Mike Tice, in the off-season. (Hey, maybe if the Lions keep Millen and the Vikes dump Tice, Matt can hire Mike as his new head coach and potentially bring about the first 0-16 finish in NFL history — but with great parties along the way.) Here’s a couple of things I do know: the Vikings are winning games in spite of their problems; and replacing Steve Mariucci with Dick Jauron (who went 35-45 as head coach of the Chicago Bears) isn’t gonna solve a damned thing for the Lions. So I’m taking Minnesota and giving the pair.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. New Orleans (Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge)
Yes, I still think Chris Simms sucks. But that doesn’t mean I’m stupid enough to pick the New Orleans (or wherever they’re headed) Saints. Not by a long shot. Tampa wins by 14.

Tennessee (+15.5) at Indianapolis
I’ll be honest: I just don’t have a whole lot to say about this game. Hits me as about as much of a foregone conclusion as the oddsmakers think it is. I mean, I know some folks are talking about the possibility of a trap here, but come on. Maybe if the Colts were coming into this one 7-0 rather than 11-0. Or maybe even if they were 10-1. After all, the Colts do have much more important games coming up in weeks 14, 15 and 16, when they’ll face a division rival/likely playoff team, a potential playoff opponent, and a potential Super Bowl opponent. It’d be easy to overlook Tennessee under the circumstances. The trouble with that reasoning, however, is that this Colts team believes its playing for a perfect season (it isn’t gonna get there, and I’ll get to that in a second), and isn’t gonna let up just because its got a soft matchup. Now, as for why the Colts are not gonna go 16-0 in the regular season. OK, let’s let’s assume the Colts manage to find a way to beat Jacksonville next week. They haven’t had great success against the Jags in the past, and they barely managed to win their week-two home game against Jacksonville. But the Jags have a new quarterback, thanks to Byron Leftwich’s season-ending injury a week ago (let’s face it; that’s what it is), so while they should be able to hold the Colts to relatively few points, there’s no knowing right now whether they’ll be able to score many themselves. We’ll have to look at this game next week, of course, but let’s leave it until then. And let’s set aside the Chargers, who are headed to Indianapolis in week 15. There are plenty of folks who see that game as the one the Colts are most likely to lose, but I don’t see it. The Chargers can be dangerous, but they haven’t played spectacular football against really good teams this season, and the Colts should be able to edge them. Let’s look at the week 16 road game in Seattle. If they Colts go into that game at 14-0, they’ll have clinched home field through the playoffs, which is to say they’ll have nothing other than a perfect season to play for. Tony Dungy has already said (on more than one occasion) that he’s after a ring, not a record, and he will rest starters if he gets the opportunity. Now, sure there are players on the team who aren’t gonna like that, and who have said they’ll agitate to play, but they’re not gonna make that decision, Dungy is. And Dungy is also gonna take into consideration the fact that Seattle, at least on paper, has very good chance of getting to the Super Bowl. He’s not gonna go into Seattle and show everything he’s got to a potential rival for the league championship (in a game that will be only six weeks away at the time) to win a match that means absolutely nothing to his team. Indy goes 14-0, Dungy’s sitting his best players. And facing a Seattle team that will very likely be playing to clinch home field through the playoffs at the time, that spells a loss. It’s as simple as that, kids. Now, back to the game at hand. As noted, the Colts win it going away. How far away is anybody’s guess, but I’ve gotta figure 20 points is as reasonable an estimate as any other, so I’m giving the fifteen and a half.

Arizona (-3) at San Francisco
This game was a lot easier to pick before the Cardinals lost their kicker, Neil Rackers, who’s been responsible for 110 of the team’s 222 points this season. Still, Arizona’s opponent this week is still San Francisco, so I still like the Cards to come out on top. And I’m guessing they’ll take it by about four.

Washington (-3) at St. Louis
Ryan Fitzpatrick did look pretty good coming in at quarterback for the Rams last week. I’ll give him that. Of course, that was against the Houston Texans, a team that gives up 130 more yards per game against the pass than the Redskins. So, you know, while I still believe Washington’s in a skid that’ll last through the end of the season, they can hardly help but win this one. Against the spread, though, it’s a push at best.

Denver (-1) at Kansas City
I said last week that the game against the Patriots would be the last one the Chiefs would win this season. I still believe that. Sure, Kansas City won decisively in that match. And, sure, Larry Johnson had another big day on the ground. But the Patriots don’t stop the run so good. And the Broncos do. Denver’s D is the best in the league against the ground game, in fact, giving up just 79 yards per game on the ground (roughly two thirds New England’s 119). Kansas City’s run defense is pretty good, too, but not as good as Denver’s. And the Chiefs’ passing D is slightly more awful than the Broncos’. So, difficulties of winning at Arrowhead in December aside, I’m taking the Super Bowl-bound Broncos (oof, it hurts to say that) and, of course, giving the stinking point.

NY Jets (+10) at New England
Mark my words: the Patriots have lost for the last time in the regular season. They won’t lose to the Bills in Buffalo next week, as many people believe. They won’t lose at home to the Buccaneers two weeks from now. They won’t lose to the Jets in New Jersey, or the Dolphins in Foxboro. And they sure as hell won’t lose to one of the worst teams in the league at home this weekend. Whether they’ll win by more than 10 without Corey Dillon in the game is another matter — I expect they will, but you can never tell with this Pats team — but they’ll certainly take it straight up.

Oakland (+11) at San Diego
Can we get Kerry Collins off the damned field? Would that be possible? Probably not, huh. Because while it’s clear that Kerry is not the future of the franchise, it’s also clear that Norv Turner is more concerned with his own future than the team’s. He’s not gonna take a look at his options, because he knows the only way he’s gonna preserve his job is by finding a way to come out of this awful season on a strong note. He’s shooting for 7-9, I think. And the awful news for Raiders fans is that he just might get it. Are all the Raiders problems Turner’s fault? Hardly. Nor Collins’, frankly. But Kerry’s not helping any, and at this point neither is Norv. So what does all this have to do with the game at hand. Nothing at all. It’s just that there’s very little worth saying about the game at hand. LaDainian Tomlinson is gonna rush for about 700 yards and 23 touchdowns. Kerry’s gonna take 40 sacks and throw a dozen picks. And the Chargers are gonna win by 787 points. (Or at the very least by two touchdowns.)

Seattle (-4) at Philadelphia
After further review … nobody knows what the hell happened. Maybe the New York Giants scored the two controversial touchdowns they got credit for in last week’s near-upset of the Seahawks, and maybe they didn’t. Maybe the game was as close as it was or maybe it wasn’t. Maybe the Seahawks got lucky that veteran kicker Jay Feely suddenly lost all ability to put the football between the uprights, or maybe the Giants never should have been close enough for field goals to matter anyhow. Maybe the league officiating office admitted officials messed up the replay reviews on those two touchdowns, and maybe it didn’t. It’s all a big mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a sub roll and eaten hastily by Mike Holmgren between press conferences. And none of it has anything to do with this matchup. Neither does Terrell Owens, who’s probably still an asshole. Or Senator Arlen Specter. Or, you know, much of anything. So what do I expect here? I expect the Seahawks to play a better game against the Eagles than they did against the Giants. I expect the Eagles to play a worse game against the Seahawks than they did against the Packers. And so I expect the Seahawks to come out ahead by seven to 10.