NFL 2021 Week Four Picks
I can only assume at this point that if there’s anyone here, it’s to find out how not to pick this week’s games.
I had yet another miserable showing in week three, wrapping up 9-7 straight up and 5-11 against the spread. I’m pretty sure I’m never climbing out of the hole I’ve dug this season. Through the first three weeks, I stand at 24-24 (.500) straight up and 18-29-1 (.385) with the points. And I’m heading into the weekend 1-0 and 0-1. So it looks like more of the same.
Here’s what not to expect through Monday night.
Washington (-1.5) at Atlanta
Wasn’t Brand X supposed to be headed in the right direction this season? The Falcons, at least, are pretty much what we thought they were. Not good. Washington by three.
Houston (+17.5) at Buffalo
The thing about huge spreads in the NFL is that there are just too many factors that can get in the way. The good team slows down the game. The bad one picks up meaningless points in garbage time. The Bills could probably win this game by 35 if they wanted to. But I’m not giving three scores. I’ll say Buffalo by 16.
Detroit (+3) at Chicago
I don’t think the Bears are one bit better than the Lions. But the Bears are at home. So I suppose there’s that. Chicago by a point.
Carolina (+4) at Dallas
I’m fairly confident the Panthers D can slow down the Cowboys offense. But stop them? In Dallas? Not so much. Cowboys by a field goal.
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Miami
Neither of these teams is going much of anywhere. But the Dolphins at least look like they’e prepared to play professional football some of the time. That’s got to be some kind of advantage. Miami by four.
Cleveland (-1) at Minnesota
I don’t know that there’s much of a difference between these two teams. So I’m taking the one that’s playing at home. Vikings by three.
NY Giants (+7) at New Orleans
I keep thinking the Giants have to be better than they look on paper. And then I keep having to ask myself why they hell I insist on thinking that while all evidence suggests the opposite. Saints by 10.
Tennessee (-6) at NY Jets
The Jets have scored 20 total points through three games. Titans by 14.
Kansas City (-6.6) at Philadelphia
Kansas City may struggle through the entire season. Or they may come around at some point. In either scenario, they should be able to win this game. KC by seven.
Arizona (+4) at LA Rams
If the Rams could make the Buccaneers offense one dimensional, they ought to be able to do the same to the Cardinals. Los Angeles by three.
Seattle (+2.5) at San Francisco
It might be time to stop believing the 2021 Seahawks are bound to find their groove. San Francisco by four.
Baltimore (-1) at Denver
The Broncos to date have played no one. Ravens by six.
Pittsburgh (-6) at Green Bay
More often than not, this is the way great NFL careers end. Packers by a touchdown.
Tampa Bay (-7) at New England
What you may have missed if you spent the week thinking about Brady vs. Belichick is that this game involves two complete football teams. The fact that the Patriots are better coached than the Buccaneers could be a factor, sure. The fact that the Bucs offense is led by the greatest quarterback of all time should be a factor. But the biggest factor is likely to be that the Patriots, as of week four, are not ready to challenge the defending Super Bowl champions. That’s the long and short of it. Buccaneers by six.
Las Vegas (+3) at LA Chargers
The Chargers are ever so slightly more impressive at 2-1 than the Raiders are at 3-0. Los Angeles by a point.
