This Football Blog

John Riggins thinks it’s upset week. He said so yesterday on Sirius NFL Radio’s “Afternoon Blitz” and picked a bunch of upsets accordingly. I don’t know what that means (Riggins isn’t nearly as good a prognosticator as he once was a running back), but I figured I’d make note of it, because, hell, it could happen. We haven’t had what I call upside-down week yet (I call it that because when a bunch of teams that are seven-, eight- and nine-point underdogs win all in one week, you can’t just talk about upsets, you’ve got to figure the football world somehow got flipped over), and they always come, so, hell, it could happen. Riggins could be right. I kinda hope he is (so long as the Saints don’t benefit from it), because I’d like to get the damned thing out of the way so I can get back to picking, and betting, without worrying about when it’s gonna hit. But while I’m certainly looking for a few upsets this week, I’m not gonna start picking teams like the Niners and the Jets. So, as usual, take this stuff as you will. Don’t make bets based on my predictions. And don’t do anything based on what I told you Riggins had to say. Here goes.

Arizona (+9) at St. Louis
Well, I’ll give old Kurt Warner his due. Kurt managed to throw for 359 yards and a touchdown in last week’s Cardinals loss to the Detroit Lions. All-in-all, that ain’t a bad day (statistically speaking, of course; his team still lost, which is what really matters). Hell, if Joey Harrington hadn’t posted a career day, the Cards might actually have won the game. And that’s gotta count for something, right? Or maybe not. The fact of the matter is, while the Rams aren’t terribly good, they’re probably a tougher matchup for the Cards than the Lions were. In the end, it all boils down to an irrelevant meeting of teams that aren’t going anywhere — or even anywhere near anywhere. I expect both offenses to do OK, and I expect final score that’s a good bit closer than nine points, but I still expect the Rams to come out on top.

Carolina (-3) at Chicago
The Panthers are the team favored by many (including me) to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XL (though I’m starting to believe Dallas could get there too). The Bears, meanwhile, though they lead the (awful) NFC North and have the best defense in the league, haven’t yet managed to beat a team with a winning record. The Panthers are a balanced team. The Bears are all D (which does not simply reflect the fact that they’ve got a rookie starting under center). So, yeah, while this game is being played in Chicago, Carolina should be able to win it by about the three points the oddsmakers predict. But I don’t think they will. I’m looking for interception-prone Jake Delhomme to put a few balls in the hands of interception-happy Chicago DBs and for the giveaway/takeaway ratio to decide the game in favor of the Bears.

Detroit (+7.5) at Dallas
In a weird way (that wouldn’t stand up to any kind of close analysis), this year’s Cowboys remind me of the 2001 Patriots. They’ve been winning most of their games, but typically not by convincing margins. And they’ve pulled a few wins (like the one over the Eagles Monday night) directly out of their asses. That’s why I think they’ve got a chance of winning the NFC this season. (And much as I hate the Cowboys and Bill Parcells, I’d kind of like to see that happen. Why? Well, because I like Drew Bledsoe and I’d like to see him get another chance to win a championship, especially after the way he was discarded by Buffalo in the off-season. And because while I don’t think Indy will make it to the big show — they won’t get past Denver — if by some chance they do, I’d love to see them get there and lose to a team like Dallas, with its personnel and playing-style links to New England). Not a bit of this has anything to do with Sunday’s game, which I don’t think the Boys should have any difficulty winning by a decent margin, so long as they’re not looking past this game in anticipation of their Thanksgiving matchup with Denver. I’m taking the Cowboys and giving the points.

Jacksonville (-4) at Tennessee
I don’t know what the hell to say about this game. If I were setting the odds, Jacksonville, a much, much better team than Tennessee, would be giving something more like eight. And I’d expect the Jags to cover.

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland
My guess is that if these two teams end up meeting around this same time next year (it’s possible, since both seem likely to finish third in their division, which would ensure a meeting, though not at any particular point in the season), it’ll be a game to watch. Both teams are rebuilding. Both clearly have coaches that have it in them to get their teams into contention by next season (though Miami’s Nick Saban obviously has more in place in terms of player personnel than Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel, a reflection, in both cases, of what was there when the coaches arrived). Both should at least be fun to watch next season. This season, it’s still a close matchup, and one worth watching if you have the chance. It doesn’t really mean anything (Cleveland is officially done, Miami most of the way there), but it still could be a good game. I honestly don’t know which way it’s gonna go, so I’ll invoke two rules of thumb: When in doubt, pick the home team. And when in doubt pick the team not quarterbacked by Sage Rosenfels. In both cases here, that happens to be the Browns. So I’m taking them and giving the pair. Why not?

New Orleans (+9) at New England
I’m starting to think that rather than pick the games, I should predict which Patriots starters’ seasons will end with an injury each week. Yes, that’s right. It’s that bad. The Pats are starting to look like the 2004 Carolina Panthers, except that the Patriots went into this season a better team than the Panthers did last year, and likely will make the playoffs despite all the players placed on injured reserve (though it’s hard to imagine they’ll get past the divisional round). I’m not gonna start picking injuries, of course. I’d hate to be right. So I’m just gonna pick the game, and there, I’m sticking with the trends. I’ve picked the Patriots every week this season so far. That’s worked out OK for me. I’ve picked against the Saints virtually every week this season so far. That’s worked out very well for me. So I’ll take the Pats, though I can’t put any faith in a team playing defense as poorly as New England has been to win by more than a touchdown.

Oakland (+6) at Washington
I’m taking the Raiders to win this one outright. Why? Is it because I like the way the Raiders match up against the Redskins? Well, I don’t dislike the matchup, but it’s not really that. Is it because I think the Raiders are about to turn their season around? Not so much. Is it because I suspect the Redskins have begun an outright collapse? A little bit. Is it because I think Norv Turner wants this so bad he can taste it? Well, I do believe that, though I’m not sure I think it will make the difference. Is it that I expect the “good” Kerry Collins to show up and punish the Redskins’ secondary? Not really. You never know what Kerry you’re gonna get until it’s too damned late to do anything about it. Truth is, I’m picking Oakland mostly on gut. I think the Raiders will win, because I think the Raiders will win. That’s a stupid way to pick football games, though, so I suggest ignoring me on this even more than you ignore me on everything else.

Philadelphia (+7) at NY Giants
Which team’s collapse in week ten was more meaningful? The Giants held the Minnesota Vikings to next to no yards on offense and still managed to lose their game at the last minute (with special teams and Eli Manning contributing equally to the loss). Then on Monday night, the Eagles outplayed the Dallas Cowboys for 56 minutes and still managed to lose at the end (with one of the worst bits of play calling of the week — after Miami offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s decision to throw on four straight plays after achieving first and goal at the New England five yard line — setting up a game-winning defensive touchdown, and bringing about a likely end to Donovan McNabb’s season). I don’t know which of those losses was worse. I do know that the Eagles’ loss was far more disastrous. Philly’s season is over, and its long reign over the NFC with it. The Giants, meanwhile, are still working toward a playoff berth, and possibly a division championship (though I suspect they’ll lose the latter to Dallas). And as far as I know, Giants coach Tom Coughlin didn’t lose valuable prep time this week sitting in a hotel room trying to convince an arbitrator to accept the obvious fact that Terrell Owens is an asshole. So I’m taking New York and giving the points.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Baltimore
You know when you’re in real trouble as a football team? When the news that Tommy Maddox will be starting at quarterback for a visiting opponent leads oddsmakers to rate you a three and a half point underdog. That can only hurt like hell. Brian Billick’s farewell tour in Baltimore takes another difficult turn as the Steelers run the ball down the Ravens’ throats and walk away winners by a field goal.

Tampa Bay (+6) at Atlanta
Just when I say Chris Simms sucks and shouldn’t be starting for an NFL team (see my week ten picks), the kid comes up with an amazing day, throwing three touchdown passes and leading his team to a key last-minute win over Washington. Guess I owe Chris an apology. Except that I still think he sucks. And I expect him to prove it this week. The Falcons run, run, run, run, run. DeAngelo Hall picks off a Simms pass. And Atlanta walks away with a win by a touchdown.

Seattle (-12.5) at San Francisco
The Seahawks are another team that could end up in the Super Bowl. Except for how they’re the Seattle Seahawks and doomed to collapse, Shaun Alexander or no Shaun Alexander. But not this week. Not against the 49ers. This week, Alexander finds the end zone another four times and the Seahawks win and cover.

Buffalo (+11) at San Diego
Hey, J.P. Losman’s back and looking good. Hey, the Bills just might get it together and challenge New England for the AFC East title. Or, hey, maybe not. The Chiefs, who managed only three points at Buffalo last week, simply aren’t that good a team. And neither are the Bills. I’m taking LaDainian Tomlinson … um, I mean the Chargers, and giving the points.

Indianapolis (-5.5) at Cincinnati
I’ve been sorely tempted to pick the upset in this game all week. Straight up, that is. There’s little question but that Indianapolis is due for a loss. The Colts are 9-0 and since you can’t go undefeated through a modern NFL season, they’ve gotta find one or two to drop somewhere in the next seven games. This one would seem a likely choice. The Colts are on the road. It’s supposed to be cold in Cincinnati. The Bengals, though tied with Pittsburgh for the AFC North lead at 7-2, need to make a statement that they can indeed beat good teams. It all says upset. But the stats say different. And they say different in a big way. The Colts do virtually everything better than the Bengals (except pass the ball, believe it or not; the Bengals average seven more yards per game than the Colts in the air). And, most tellingly, the Colts stop the run a good bit better than the Bengals, allowing just 97.4 yards per game to the Bengals’ 124.2. (It’s worth noting here, however, that in yards per carry, there’s only a half-yard difference. The Colts allow 4.2, the Bengals 4.7, neither of which is very good.) The contest here, to my mind, isn’t between Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer; it’s between Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson. And I’ve gotta think the edge there goes to, well, Edge. I like the Colts by about a field goal.

NY Jets (+13.5) at Denver
Oh, boy, am I glad my local CBS station is showing this game. I can’t wait to see this. What a game. What a matchup. What a rivalry. What a … complete fucking crock. The Broncos do everything well (except stop the pass). The Jets do nothing well (especially pass the ball). The game is already over, and the Broncos have won it by 20.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Houston
Yeah, I know I said just a couple of picks ago that the Chiefs aren’t that good. I meant it. But no team is worse than the Texans. None. So I’m taking Kansas City and giving the points.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Green Bay
I know a lot of folks are picking the Vikings in the upset here. I’m not one of them. Yes, Minnesota did manage to beat the Giants last week. And yes, the Giants are a much better team than the Packers. But I don’t see the Vikes scoring twice on special teams two weeks in a row. And while the Minnesota defense very well might put up seven for the second straight week, I don’t see the offense adding much to that. I think Green Bay finds a way to squeeze out a three-point victory.