This Football Blog

Here’s something I can tell you for absolute certain: There’s gonna be at least one and maybe two stunning upsets this week. How do I know that? Well, because there hasn’t been a true shocker in a good while now, so we’re due. Also, there’s usually some kind of upset every week (week nine notwithstanding) and stunning is about the only kind of upset we can get in this week of enormous point spreads. Plus, since most of last week’s much more even matchups went to the favorites, there’s gotta be some kind of upheaval this week to even things out. (And you know, we haven’t had upside-down week yet, so maybe this is it. It’d be one hell of an upside-down week.)

I can also tell you this: Beginning this week, one some that got a rough start to its season will begin an amazing run to December. Maybe it won’t be enough to get that team into the playoffs (depending on how rough a start the team got, what division it’s in, that sort of thing), but it’s gonna be fun to watch and it’s gonna have everyone talking by week 15. Also, beginning this week or next, some team that’s got off to a very strong start is gonna go into an outright tailspin, a collapse so extreme players and coaches (not to mention sportswriters and fans) will still be trying to figure out what hit them come week 17. How do I know this stuff? Because it happens every single year. It’s really as simple as that. Just watch.

Now, as for picking this week’s games, well, it’s pretty simple really. Straight up, anyhow. You mostly pick the favorites, because they’re heavy favorites for a reason. You’re gonna end up thinking you should have seen an upset coming somewhere, and knowing you’d pick some other game the same way if you had it to do all over again despite the upset, but you can’t go guessing at this shit, because you just get hurt that way. Betting? I don’t know. I don’t bet on pro games with giant spreads, and I’d advise you not to either. So take a look at the closer matchups (except the awful-off in Detroit) and find something comfortable in there. Or go for broke and tease both of the double-digit spreads (you pick the direction) and hope for the best. It’s your call. And chances are you’re gonna lose money either way. So you might as well have fun.

Here’s how I see things happening.

Arizona (+3.5) at Detroit
Ah, shit. Do I really have to make a pick in this game? The Kurt Warner-led Cardinals at the Joey Harrington-led Lions? This is fucking football hell, plain and simple. I can’t even think about this mess. I’m just going with the home team straight up and the underdog versus the spread. That’s it. That’s all I’ve got to say about this game. Seriously.

Baltimore (+6) at Jacksonville
Kyle Boller returns to the starting lineup for Baltimore, which could pose more problems for Jacksonville than one would imagine. It’s hard to game plan against a quarterback you can’t watch recent film of. I don’t how the hell Boller’s gonna perform or exactly how healthy he is, or what the current Baltimore offense is gonna do differently with him in the game, and neither does anyone but Brian Billick (Yeah, you can guess, but you might be wrong.) So there’s a chance Boller catches the Jacksonville D off guard. Still, Boller’s got little to nothing around him. There are a couple of guys who can catch balls, sure, but no one on the Ravens has had any success running this season, which should allow the Jacksonville D to key up on Todd Heap and Derrick Mason and make it really hard for Boller to get anything accomplished. I don’t expect Baltimore’s D to give up a whole lot of points, especially with Fred Taylor on the sidelines, but I don’t expect their O to score very many either. So I’m thinking Jacksonville wins, but maybe by a score of 10-6.

Houston (+17) at Indianapolis
Look, obviously you’ve gotta take the Colts to win this thing. That’s a given. But the last thing you wanna do is bet on this game. Because it’s gonna go one of two ways. Either the Colts offense is gonna score every time it gets the ball (and the Colts defense is gonna score once or twice, too) and Indy’s gonna win by more like 35 than 17, or the Colts are gonna have a hard time getting up for a game against the worst team in the league following a major emotional victory at New England and they’re gonna come out flat and end up winning by nine or 10. Think you know which it’s gonna be? Then go ahead and risk your money. But don’t say I didn’t tell you so. (For the record, if I were somehow required to put a bet on this mess, I’d give the damned points, because I just can’t imagine Indy will need to try very hard to score repeatedly on the Houston D. But, really, it’s totally a crapshoot and best avoided.)

Kansas City (+2) at Buffalo
This is maybe the toughest match of the week to suss. On defense, Buffalo stops the pass better than any other team in the league, while the only team worse at pass defense than Kansas City is San Francisco. The Chiefs D, meanwhile, has fared much better against the run than the Bills, who can’t stop anyone. Both teams have run the ball very well, and I don’t expect that to change much with Priest Holmes gone for the season, since Larry Johnson has certainly come on of late. But the Chiefs pass well, while the Bills can’t throw the ball for shit (no matter who’s under center). So the Chiefs have a definite advantage talent-wise. But I still feel like home-field means something here. And all told, that leaves me torn. I can see this game going either way. So I’m gonna pick the team that looked like it was playing to win it all in its last game, and that team’s the Chiefs. I’ll take them with the points, and I’ll take them to win it outright.

Minnesota (+9.5) at NY Giants
Somehow I get the feeling Jon Gruden is looking at what Brad Johnson did at quarterback for Minnesota last week and wishing he’d held onto the guy with whom he won Super Bowl XXXVII. Yeah, Johnson’s never been the best quarterback in the league, but he’s better by leaps and bounds than anyone on Tampa Bay’s current roster. Of course, that’s neither here nor there as far as this game (or any other) is concerned. Johnson’s under center for the Vikes now, and something tells me his second start of the season is gonna prove a tad more difficult than his first. Facing the Lions (with Joey Harrington at QB) at home is one thing; going into the Meadowlands to face the division-leading Giants is quite another. The Giants defense runs hot and cold, so assuming someone’s able to carry the ball effectively for Minnesota (Mewelde Moore will probably get the start despite a sprained wrist, and Michael Bennett remains uneven despite his strong performance last week), Johnson could conceivably complete some passes and put up some points. But my guess is that Johnson and the rest of the Minnesota offense simply won’t get many chances to make anything happen. The Vikings D has been pretty miserable this season. And the Giants offense has seemed virtually unstoppable of late. That, and playing on the road, aren’t good for teams like the Vikes. So I’m looking for a Giants win, and probably another decisive one, which is to say I’m gonna go ahead and give the points.

New England (-3) at Miami
It used to be you’d say the Patriots would probably find a way to win this game. The Pats, after all, are most dangerous after they suffer a bad loss, as they did Monday night when the Colts visited Foxborough. So even though they Patriots can’t seem to stop much of anything on defense, and even though New England has no healthy running backs (well, except Mike Cloud, I guess), you’d figure Tom Brady and the Pats ninth-ranked offense would find a way to put a hurting on a Fins team that, though it may be challenging for the division, is really still rebuilding. But right now I’m not so sure. I mean, I know the Pats can and should knock off the Dolphins, I’m just not sure they want to. There’s been a lot of talk about New England’s lack of passion for the game this week, and it reflects something that’s been fairly evident on the field. That needs to change, and quick, or it’s gonna continue to be a rough season. You can’t win when you’ve got the kind of injuries the Pats do unless you want the hell out of it, and up until now, the Pats haven’t looked like they want it much at all. Now, all of that said, I still like the Pats to win this one, if only by about a field goal, because even if Brady weren’t playing amazing football, and even if the Dolphins D could shut down the Patriots’ passing game, and even though I expect Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both to have good days on the ground, the Dolphins still have Gus Frerotte under center, and Frerotte, who has a 65.3 passer rating and has thrown nine interceptions and only eight touchdowns this season, should find a way to make the Pats’ inconsistent secondary look pretty decent. All of which is to say that while I don’t necessarily expect the Pats to find a way to win, I do expect the Dolphins to find a way to lose.

San Francisco (+13) at Chicago
Look, I don’t’ want to pick on Cody Pickett. I really don’t. First of all, it’s just too damned easy, too obvious. Second, it seems like he’s probably a nice kid and all. And he didn’t create the situation he’s in. Injuries to #1 draft pick Alex Smith and backup QB Ken Dorsey, and the Niners ill-timed trade of Tim Rattay to Tampa Bay (where he’ll probably be starting by week 11 or 12), thrust Pickett into an impossible situation, playing quarterback for a team that would be considered possibly the worst in the league if it weren’t for the fact that Houston is so damned terrible. But what am I supposed to do? Should I ignore the fact that Pickett is 13 of 22 for 112 yards, no TDs and an interception since replacing Dorsey near the end of San Fran’s shocking win over Tampa Bay two weeks ago? Should I pretend his passer rating isn’t an abysmal 53.6? And should I act like he’s not going into Chicago to face one of the best defenses in the league, a unit tied for second in interceptions with 13 on the season? You know, I don’t think that’s picking on Cody. I think it’s just stating the facts. And the facts tell me that Cody is in for big trouble in the Windy City. Given that the Bears defense is bound to score at least once, I can’t see how Chicago fails to win this one by two touchdowns.

Denver (-3) at Oakland
This game is big, giant trouble for me. There’s something inside me that says the Raiders are gonna pull off the upset, that maybe Oakland is the team that turns its season around starting this weekend with a big win against a tough and hated division rival. After all, the Raiders do have big, big potential on offense. And they’ve been really close in a few key losses. So there’s no question they could do a lot better in the second half of the season than they did in the first. But I have no way of knowing whether all that stuff telling me to take the upset here is coming from my gut or my heart. And I suspect it’s my heart. And what I know for certain is that the Broncos look Super Bowl bound to me (though it hurts like hell to say it). I don’t think there’s a team in the league that’s got what it’s gonna take to stop Denver from collecting a Lombardi Trophy this season. I also know that Denver coach Mike Shannahan hates Al Davis and the Raiders with all his heart, and almost always finds a way to motivate his guys to beat Oakland, even in seasons when Denver doesn’t look like probably league champs. So my head tells me Denver’s a three-point favorite for a reason. Here’s how I’m gonna reconcile it, I think. I’m taking the Broncos to win it straight up, and hoping I’m wrong. And I’m putting some cash in the Raiders to keep it to within three and hoping they do better than that. Seems reasonable, right? No? Completely ridiculous? Well, fuck it. I’m doing it anyhow.

NY Jets (+8.5) at Carolina
The team I expect Denver to beat in the Super Bowl? Carolina. The team I expect the Jets to beat at any point this season? None. Certainly not the Panthers. Brooks Bollinger struggles against the Carolina D, while the Jets D works hard to keep it close through three quarters, then falls apart from exhaustion, as New York loses by nine.

Green Bay (+9) at Atlanta
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Green Bay, the Pack is forced to travel to Atlanta to take on the league’s top rushing offense. I expect this game to go very quickly as Atlanta runs on down after down after down (and Mike Vick completes what few passes he does have to throw), while the Green Bay offense goes three and out every time it gets the ball. I hate taking nine-point favorites to cover, but I just don’t see where I have a choice.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Seattle
Yeah, it’s hard to pull off the season sweep. And yeah, the Rams are playing much better ball under Joe Vitt than they were under Mike Martz. And yeah, I still sort of expect Seattle to collapse at some point. But I just don’t see the Rams pulling off the upset here. I just don’t. I do think they’ll keep it closer than six and a half, though. So there’s that.

Washington (-1) at Tampa Bay
You know who really sucks? Chris Simms. The Bucs’ current starting quarterback is 52 for 86 for 592 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions (that’s twice as many INTs as TDs, in case you don’t feel like doing the math yourself) and a passer rating of 69.5. And so, OK, that means Simms doesn’t suck as much as, say, Joey Harrington, but that’s a bit like saying a guy hits better than Mario Mendoza (and maybe not even that). Plus, you know, give him time. I don’t know whether Jon Gruden has quite figured that out yet, but I’m thinking he’d better figure it out soon or he’s gonna have the opportunity to start figuring out what to do about it over the long term (hint: it ain’t hope Brian Griese gets and stays healthy) come the first week in January. As for this week, I’m guessing the Redskins’ pass rushers are gonna have a field day with Simms. And while the Buccaneers certainly can play defense themselves, it’s hard to imagine them faring as well against Mark Brunell, who’s playing the best football of his career, as the Redskins will against Simms (who, in fairness, is probably playing the best football of his career, too). I’m taking the Skins and giving the point.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
Romeo Crennel knows how to scheme against the Pittsburgh offense. That’s a given. And if he had the personnel to carry out his schemes, I’d be sorely tempted to pick the upset here. But Crennel, who’s in his first year as head coach, hasn’t had a chance to build his defense yet. And Pittsburgh, while vulnerable (especially with Charlie Batch under center and two out of three running backs ailing), should be able to get just enough done to win this game, if only by three points or so.

Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens. Oh, wait, you mean there’s a game? The Eagles are playing an actual game? OK, then, let’s maybe talk about that a bit. It looks as close to me as it does to the oddsmakers (who have Philly giving the default three) so let’s break it down. Dallas, like every other team in the league, runs the ball better than Philadelphia. Or at least they run the ball more often. Both teams get about three and a half yards per carry on the ground, but Dallas runs a good two and a half times as often as Philly, netting 122.4 yards per game to Philadelphia’s 58.6. The Cowboys also stop the run better than the Eagles. Or, again, they’re better at run defense by certain standards. The Eagles have allowed 118 yards per game on the ground as opposed to the Cowboys’ 89, but both teams have been giving up about four yards per carry. Philly’s offense comes out ahead in the air if you look at yards per game (295 vs. 235) but not if you go by yards per attempt (where Dallas gets 8.24 to Philadelphia’s 7.32 — and even if you break it down to yards per completion, Dallas comes out looking slightly better, with 12 to Philly’s 11.5), and to my mind that’s the measure that really matters since Philly does nothing but throw while Dallas has a balanced offensive attack. The Dallas pass defense, on the other hand, comes out way ahead in the mix, allowing just 193.5 yards per game (6.64 per attempt; 11 per completion) to Philadelphia’s 230 (7.47; 11.6). So the Cowboys’ slightly better record would appear to be the result of the fact that they do pretty much everything slightly better than the Eagles. Of course, the game is still taking place in the Eagles’ stadium, and there is an advantage to that. But my guess is that advantage has been mostly wiped away by the whole T.O. dustup. So me, I’m taking the Boys to win it outright.