Week Two Picks
I haven’t had much time to write about football picks this week, but I’ve had way too much time to think about them. Here, in short, is how I see things breaking down. Don’t let my brevity fool you. I’ve overthought these games exactly as much as I always do, so I’m almost certainly gonna be wrong about pretty much all of them.
Baltimore (-4) at Tennessee
I don’t care who’s under center for Baltimore (Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright are virtually interchangeable anyhow). What matters is that the Titans defense won’t be able to stop Jamal Lewis, and the Ravens D should be able to stop pretty much anything the Tennessee offense attempts to do. Take the visitors and give the points.
Buffalo (+2) at Tampa Bay
Since you can’t know for sure which team’s impressive opening week outing was for real, this one becomes a coin toss. I’ll take the Bucs run defense to slow down Willis McGahee just enough for the Bills to have to put the game in the hands of still untested quarterback J.P. Losman, which gives a slight edge to Tampa. Take the Bucs straight up and the Bills to keep it to within a point.
Detroit (-2) at Chicago
I may have said this before (I have): With the first pick in the 2006 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears select Matt Leinart, quarterback of USC. Take the Lions and give the points.
Jacksonville (+9) at Indianapolis
Don’t talk to me about the Jaguars keeping up in this game. The Jaguars aren’t keeping up in this game. I don’t care how well they did in the RCA Dome last season. The Jags D isn’t nearly good enough to stop the Colts. And the Colts D should have a decent day given the Jaguars’ offensive line issues (even if those weren’t obvious vs. Seattle last week). Take the Colts and stay the hell away from betting an NFL game with a nine-point spread.
Minnesota (+3) at Cincinnati
If Koren Robinson is able to keep the bong in the back of the closet for a few months, and if the Vikings running backs can get healthy enough to compete at some point, the Vikings should be able to salvage their season. And, strong start or none, the Bengals are still the Bengals, so a collapse is coming eventually. But none of that stuff matters this week. Minnesota’s weak run defense spells a big day for Rudi Johnson, which means the Bengals cruise here. Take Cinci and give the field goal.
New England (-3) at Carolina
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch? OK, sure. If you wanna look at it that way. (I don’t think the Pats are thinking that, and probably the Panthers aren’t either, but you do what you like.) Revenge for the Panthers? Mmmm, probably not. These Pats are a better team still than the one that beat Carolina in the Super Bowl. The once-again banged-up Panthers, meanwhile, are maybe just as good, maybe not. New England wins by a touchdown.
Pittsburgh (-6) at Houston
I’d love to see Houston rise up and make good for what happened last week in Buffalo by putting a hurting on the Steelers. But I don’t mistake what I’d like to see for what I expect to see. Whether it’s Ben Roethlisberger or Tommy Maddox under center, I expect the Steelers offensive leader in this game to be Willie Parker once again. I can’t encourage anyone to give up six points to a home team, but I definitely see the Steelers winning straight up.
San Francisco (+13) at Philadelphia
Don’t give or take 13 points in an NFL game. Ever. No matter how horrible the mismatch seems on paper. But certainly take the Eagles straight up, ’cause that’s a gimme.
Atlanta (+1) at Seattle
Monday night jinx? That’s the only reason I can imagine for the Falcons to come into this game as underdogs. Because the Seahawks looked pretty shoddy at Jacksonville last week, and the Falcons looked pretty damned impressive against the Eagles Monday night. I like a D that held Philly to 10 points to keep Seattle under that mark, especially given the fact that Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t practiced much. Take the Falcons and by all means give the point. They’ll win by at least three times that margin.
St. Louis (+1) at Arizona
You’re the suckiest team in the NFL’s suckiest division. No, you’re the suckiest team in the NFL’s suckiest division. Have fun, guys. Take the Cards. Give the point. Ugh.
Cleveland (+6) at Green Bay
Romeo Crennel’s got some work to do in Cleveland. The Packers have some big shoes to fill at wide receiver. I’ll take the team with Ahman Green (to win, not to cover).
Miami (+6) at NY Jets
Man, would I love to see the Dolphins take it to the Jets. But, whatever may be up with Chad Pennington’s arm, it’s not gonna be enough. Unless the temperature in New Jersey gets up to 110 degrees, the Jets win this one. But I wouldn’t trust them to cover a six-point spread.
San Diego (+3) at Denver
The Broncos need very badly to rebound from their defeat in Miami last week. The Chargers need very badly to rebound from a defeat at home by the Cowboys. And divisional rivalries always make for intense games. That ought to favor the home team, but you know what, I like a team that got beat by Dallas better than a team that got beat by the Fins. So I’m going with the Chargers to win it straight up.
Kansas City (-1) at Oakland
Larry Johnson likes things in twos I guess. Two touchdowns a game. Two times accused of beating his girlfriend. Lovely, Larry. Just lovely. I think Larry’s gonna find the Oakland run defense a good bit tougher than his girlfriend, though. I think he misses tying John Riggins’ record of two TDs in seven straight games. And I think the Chief’s still not quite tough enough D gives up enough points for the Raiders to win and cover, if only barely.
New Orleans (+3) at NY Giants
Here’s why this game should not have been moved to New York. Forget the fact that had it been played in the Superdome as originally scheduled, this thing would have been a straight-out gimme, because obviously, it can’t be played in New Orleans. But this would have been all Saints even if it had been played in a neutral stadium. But the fact that it’s in the Meadowlands gives the Giants a slight edge. It also gives the Giants nine home games this season (however you decorate the end zones, it’s still Giants Stadium, folks), which is just plain old wrong. I think the Saints make it academic by pulling off an tough second straight road game. Take New Orleans and the points.
Washington (+6) at Dallas
And the game of musical quarterbacks in Washington begins. Joe Gibbs should have stayed on the racing circuit, where getting passed by is expected. Dallas wins this one by a touchdown, minimum.
