Week One Picks
So I thought about doing predictions for the entire season. More than thought about it, actually. I went through the schedule and ticked off winners all the way to week 17. Then I counted up projected records and made playoff predictions. Then I started writing about each team. And that’s when I realized that what I was doing was totally pointless.
Wanna know what I think is gonna happen this season? Some of it’s in this week’s rundowns. Like the fact that I think New England’s gonna win a third straight Super Bowl, beating Carolina. And the fact that I think Chicago and Tennessee are gonna battle it out for the rights to Matt Leinart. Some isn’t, because what do you care anyhow?
So what about this week? Well, here’s how I see it. Of course, I’m usually wrong. So don’t take my word for anything, especially if there’s money on the line.
Oakland (+7.5) at New England
The way I see it, the Raiders can’t lose here. Oh, I mean, they’ll lose the game. That’s almost a given (except for the whole any given Sunday — Thursday, whatever — thing); there’s just no beating the champs in their home opener. And I suspect — concerns about coordinators and run defense aside — there’s gonna be very little beating the Pats anywhere in the league this season. But as long as they can sort of keep up, which is what I expect to see, the Raiders are gonna have to come out of this game feeling pretty good. Kerry Collins, who started to click at the end of last season, should have a great year throwing the ball to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter. And LaMont Jordan is a guy who only needed to get out of the shadow of the great Curtis Martin to succeed. So there’s your high-powered offense. Still, I expect to see the Patriots O have an amazing season, too, starting tonight. I expect Corey Dillon to put up even better numbers than he did last season, partially because I think this team is on track to blow out more than a few opponents, and when you’re way ahead, you hand the ball off play after play. And to whatever extent there are questions on the Pats D, I expect many of them to be answered by the O putting teams on their heels. Getting back to the game at hand, though, what I expect tonight is a big showing from both offenses, as both Ds struggle to get going (as NFL defenses always do until around week four). I’m looking for a 34-30 Patriots win. And the way I see it, the Raiders can’t ask for anything more, and the Pats, who begin their run for what ought to be an unprecedented third straight championship season, don’t need anything more. Call this win one of 15 ahead for the Pats. Oh, and bet the over.
Chicago (+6) at Washington
Hoo boy. Will the Chicago Bears ever solve their quarterback issues? I expect they will. And I expect the solution will go something like this: “With the first pick in the 2006 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears select Matt Leinart, quarterback, University of Southern California. ” As for tonight, the Bears roll into Washington with a rookie under center. Something tells me it’s gonna be a long night for Kyle Orton and company — and the start of a very long campaign for the Bears. Take the Skins and give the points.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Cleveland
Yep, the Bengals are getting better and better (though they’ll still fall apart before the season ends) and the Browns are just beginning to rebuild under new head coach Romeo Crennel. And it’s impossible to imagine the Browns are good for more than four or five wins this season. But something tells me one of them is coming by way of a home-opener upset over their hated divisional rivals. It’s just a feeling. Don’t bet it. But I think the Browns take it by a point with a late kick.
Denver (-4.5) at Miami
If things go Nick Saban’s way, the Dolphins should be in good shape to make a run at the playoffs — in 2006 or ’07. This season, not so much. Of course, the Broncos aren’t going all that far this season either (they’ll miss the playoffs by a game). Still, in this one, you’ve gotta like the team that’s already got it together. Take the Broncos and give the points.
Houston (+5.5) at Buffalo
If I had more faith (which would be any at all) in J.P. Losman, I might understand the spread on this game. Of if I had less faith in my own belief that the Texans are gonna surprise people this season by posting 10 wins. Do I think Houston pulls off the upset here? Not straight up, no. But against the spread with an unproven QB on the other side of the ball, you bet your sweet patoot.
New Orleans (+7) at Carolina
Look, I know everyone wants the Saints to put up a good showing here. I know there’s this idea that they’ll rally and take one for a city that’s taken a major beating this week. And I wish it were true, because New Orleans could probably use some kind of victory, no matter how meaningless (in the grand scale of things) the event might be. But it’s not gonna happen. Carolina’s healthy. Carolina’s headed for the Super Bowl (where they’ll lose to New England again). And they’re headed for a 10-point margin of victory in this game.
NY Jets (+3) at Kansas City
Sending Santana Moss to Washington in order to bring back Laveraneus Coles, who is ultimately a much better receiver than Moss, was probably a good idea on the part of the Jets. But that’s not gonna patch the gaping hole on the right side of the offensive line, or make Chad Pennington a more accurate passer. Bringing in Ty Law to try to shore up a secondary that was questionable at best was a good idea, too. But it’s not gonna turn the whole unit around. Chiefs additions Kendrell Bell and Patrick Surtain, on the other hand, should improve Kansas City’s defense just enough to protect some of the leads it’s big bad O can build. Watch. Kansas City wins by a touchdown.
Seattle (+3) at Jacksonville
I’m expecting a huge defensive battle here, one that could set the stage for a … you’re not really buying this, are you? See, the joke is that while a lot of people seem to be expecting a lot out of both of these teams this season, one of them (Seattle) has a defense that’s sits somewhere on the sucky side of average, and the other (Jacksonville) has a defense that could be quite good if the offense ever held onto the ball for five minutes at a time. But since they don’t, it isn’t. I don’t expect the Jags’ porous O line to pose that much of an issue here, since none of the Seahawks’ defensive linemen would know what to do if they spotted a hole, but I do expect Seattle’s superior offense to keep the team in the game, right up until the end, when they’ll lose by exactly a field goal.
Tampa Bay (+6) at Minnesota
I’m kind of expecting Jon Gruden to get his team going and save his job this season. I’m kind of expecting Brian Griese to finally have a season that doesn’t embarrass his dad. But I’m also kind of expecting the Vikings to win their division and maybe even a playoff game this season. And I’m totally expecting the Vikes to win their home opener by a touchdown.
Tennessee (+7) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has a better than average chance of turning the AFC North over to the Baltimore Ravens this season, if only by a game. But Tennessee has an average chance of stealing Matt Leinart from the Chicago Bears. If the Steelers don’t win this one by at least 10 points, I’ll be flabbergasted.
Arizona (+2.5) at N.Y. Giants
Yes, well, one of these teams is almost certainly going to win this game. Chances are, it’ll be the one I don’t pick. So I’ll take the home team to win it straight up, the visitor to cover. That way, I’ve gotta be right once.
Dallas (+4.5) at San Diego
Sometime around mid-season, the Chargers blocking schemes are gonna start to break down, which is what happens when you let the best O-line coach in the game (Hudson Houck) walk away, and then San Diego’s gonna have some trouble. And sometime much earlier in the season, Bill Parcells system is finally gonna kick in for real in Dallas, making the Cowboys dangerous. But neither thing is gonna happen this week. Take the Chargers and give the points.
Green Bay (+3) at Detroit
You see that line? You see that? Fucking Detroit is favored to beat Green Bay. This is wrong. Except for how it’s right. Take the Lions, but don’t make a bet, because a) it’s a push; and b) it’s just wrong.
St. Louis (-5) at San Francisco
The countdown to Alex Smith begins in San Francisco. Take the Rams and give the points.
Indianapolis (-3) at Baltimore
The temptation here, of course, is to take the home dog. Baltimore’s offense should be in decent shape this season (assuming Kyle Boller doesn’t manage to lose games all by himself, which is always a possibility). Todd Heap is back, which should make a difference. And Jamal Lewis mostly only disappoints when he’s in court or prison rather than on the field. Plus, the always great defense is promising to mimic the ’85 Bears, arguably the best defensive squad in NFL history, by working the 46 defense into their schemes. That’s lovely. It should be fun to watch. And it’ll certainly give a lot of teams fits. But the 46 is a run-stopping D, and the Colts, Edgerrin James or no Edgerrin James, have a pass-oriented offense. And 20 years later, every coach in the league knows that the way you beat the 46 is to throw to the weak side. You know who the Colts’ weak-side receiver is? Reggie Wayne. So I predict a lot of the Colts coming out of the huddle in a run formation, spotting the 46, audibling to a pass play and getting the ball to Wayne. And unless the Ravens can switch up quick and get a pass rush on, they’re gonna end up watching their secondary get burned bigtime out of those zones. And given the fact that defenses take time to gel, I’m going with the Colts to win and cover.
Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta
What a way to bookend opening weekend. Raiders at Pats to kick it off; this game to wrap it up. Holy moly. It’s just too bad the only Falcon who can catch the ball worth a damn is the tight end. That don’t win football games. Not even at home. Take the conference champions and give the stinkin’ point.
