Week Fourteen Picks
I didn’t do so bad in week thirteen. And that worries me.
I finished 11-5 straight up, 9-6-1 against the spread, which means that for the season, I’m 121-69-2 (.635) straight up, and 94-89-9 (.513) with the points.
That’s all fine. Except for how it makes a second straight week of decent results across the board for me. And that means something has to break. Probably this week.
Here’s what not to expect.
Jacksonville (+4.5) at Tennessee
The Titans might be better than the Jaguars. (That certainly appeared to be the case the … yawn … last time around.) The Titans might still have an outside chance of qualifying for the postseason (though not really). But the Titans are definitely the home team in a Thursday night game. I’m gonna lean on that last thing. Tennessee by a field goal (again).
Baltimore (+7.5) at Kansas City
The Ravens can’t afford to lose this game. They can’t afford a loss in the AFC North race with the Steelers. And they can’t afford a loss in the wild card chase. But the Ravens are taking a loss just the same. Because the home team really can’t afford a loss either with the Chargers lurking in the AFC West and the Patriots waiting for a chance to steal home field through the playoffs. I expect the Ravens to give the Chiefs a scare, but to come up just short of pulling off a big road upset. Kansas City by four.
Indianapolis (+4.5) at Houston
The Texans began their turnaround from an 0-3 start with an overtime win over the Colts in Indianapolis back in week four. They’ll take a huge step toward clinching the AFC South title with another narrow victory over Indy. Texans by three.
Carolina (-1) at Cleveland
A win here coupled with a Vikings loss in Seattle would put the Panthers in position to capture the final spot in the NFC playoffs. Now, Carolina won’t stick in that spot even if they get there, what with two games against New Orleans remaining on their schedule. But for the moment, it gives the Panthers something to play for this weekend. Look for the Panthers to keep the ball on the ground and come out ahead by a field goal.
Atlanta (+6) at Green Bay
Joe Philbin is a genius! I’m not even joking. How, you ask, do I justify such a statement? It’s like this: Philbin takes over the Packers with a career record as a head coach of 24-28 (.462). The last time his career winning percentage saw the plus side of .500 was at the end of September 2013, when his Dolphins’ 3-0 start catapulted him to 10-9. Still, by the time his term as interim coach in Green Bay is over, Philbin will be viewed as the guy who led a Packers team that had been failing badly under Mike McCarthy to a 3-1 record in the final quarter of the 2018 season. (That would make Philbin’s Packers undefeated except for the loss.) Might even open the door to another head coaching gig somewhere. And that’s pretty damned genius if you ask me. Oh, also, the Falcons are awful everywhere, but especially on the road. Packers by a touchdown.
New Orleans (-8) at Tampa Bay
I feel like there may be some unfinished business between these two teams. Saints by 20.
NY Jets (+3.5) at Buffalo
Well … I mean … I don’t know. You know? Bills by six.
New England (-8) at Miami
Ready? Scoring differential, Patriots +5.3; passer rating differential, Patriots +3.4; takeaway-giveaway differential, Dolphins +2. Those numbers, along with location, point to a close game that could go either way. But, you know, I just don’t see it. The Dolphins’ complete inability to stop the run was a problem the last time these two teams met. It’s been a problem in virtually every game the Dolphins have played this year (the only team they’ve limited on the ground has been the Jets). And I see very little reason to anticipate it won’t be a problem for Miami again on Sunday. I expect a huge day for Sony Michel, and a 14-point victory, plus a 10th straight AFC East championship, for the Patriots.
NY Giants (+1.5) at Washington
Mark Sanchez last threw a touchdown in November 2015. He’s made two meaningful appearances since then, during which he’s gone 22 for 38 and thrown 3 picks for a passer rating of 37.7. I doubt even the Giants can figure out how to lose this game. New Jersey by four.
Denver (-6) at San Francisco
The Broncos have an outside shot at a wild card berth. The 49ers are a pointless Thursday night win over the Raiders removed from the first overall pick in the 2019 draft. Denver by eight.
Cincinnati (+14) at LA Chargers
This game will be a lot easier for the Chargers to dominate if Melvin Gordon is indeed back on the field. But it’s a win for the home team either way. And I’m thinking by a good 17 even if Gordon isn’t available.
Detroit (-2.5) at Arizona
Oh, goodness. This is an actual thing that’s happening, isn’t it? Lions by four. I guess.
Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
The Eagles could come out of this one as the first place team in the (unimpressive) NFC East. Or they could come out of it with little to no shot of qualifying for the postseason. I’m thinking it’s the latter. The Cowboys beat the Eagles by a touchdown in Philadelphia four weeks ago. Let’s figure they do at least that well in Dallas.
Pittsburgh (-11) at Oakland
The Steelers, who have dropped two straight, close their season with a pair of tough games bookended by a pair of easy games. The good news for Pittsburgh is that as long as they win the easy ones, they should be able to drop one or both of the tough ones and still win the AFC North. This is one of the easy ones. If they can just hold on to the ball, the Steelers should have little difficulty winning by at least 13.
LA Rams (-3) at Chicago
The Rams already have clinched the NFC West title. With a win here, they would sew up a first-round bye and position themselves to shore up home field by week 16. The Bears, meanwhile, need a win to hold their lead in the NFC North and to hold on to the three seed and a shot (albeit a tiny one) at the two seed and a first-round bye of their own. And from a distance, it looks like the Bears actually might have a shot, particularly if they can slow down the Rams’ ground game. But when you get up close, you can see that the Chicago D is wildly uneven. That’s not going to be sufficient vs. Los Angeles. Rams by five.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Seattle
I don’t buy into the whole Seattle is “the team no one in the NFC playoffs wants to face” narrative. But I do think the Seahawks are good enough to make things interesting in the wild card round. I also think the Vikings are playing a tough opponent on the road for the second straight week. And I’ve got a feeling this game’s going to look similar to last week’s in some important ways. Seattle by 10.
