Week Twelve Picks
My amazing run of mediocrity continues!
I went 9-4 picking straight up in week 11, 8-4-1 picking against the spread.
For the season, I’m now at 100-59-2 (.627) straight up, 74-79-8 (.484) with the points.
Lots of games to get wrong this week. Here’s what not to expect.
Chicago (-4) at Detroit
This is the second meeting in a span of 11 days for these two teams. Let’s figure the difficulties of traveling on short rest cut the margin of victory from their previous match in half. Bears by six.
Washington (+7.5) at Dallas
I think the Racists could have kept this close if they had a quarterback. But they don’t. Dallas by 10.
Atlanta (+13) at New Orleans
Back in April, this looked like a great way to cap Thanksgiving. Now? Well, you can probably expect to see two or three Saints TDs before the red wine and tryptophan do their thing. So there’s that. New Orleans by 20.
Jacksonville (-3) at Buffalo
It’s hard to imagine that even the Jaguars can find a way to lose this game. (For the record, if there were a way, it would be turnovers. But I don’t see it.) Jacksonville by four.
Oakland (+11) at Baltimore
There’s nothing worth saying about this game. Ravens by two TDs.
San Francisco (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
How’s that Buccaneers defense shaping up? 49ers by a point.
NY Giants (+6) at Philadelphia
Who cares? Home team by a field goal.
Cleveland (+3) at Cincinnati
The Browns are abysmal. The Bengals are supposedly in the wild card hunt. And yet in Cincinnati, the Bengals are only giving three. And the Browns are going to cover. (Also, when these teams meet again four weeks from now in Cleveland, the Browns are going to win.) Bengals by two.
New England (-9.5) at NY Jets
Not that they’re in legitimate contention anyhow, but with a loss here the Jets would be officially eliminated in the AFC East. That’s not good news. This is bad news: scoring differential, Patriots +4.5; passer rating differential, Patriots +14.7, takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +11. That’s a bloodbath in the making, folks. New England by 13.
Seattle (+3.5) at Carolina
The outcome of this game may determine which team lands as the five seed and which as the six (which will likely be the difference between starting the postseason in Dallas or Chicago). Or it could determine which team is the six seed and which gets January off. It’s ultimately a pretty even matchup. So I’m taking the home team to win it by a field goal.
Arizona (+12) at LA Chargers
Chargers by 4:15 eastern. And no less than three touchdowns.
Miami (+9) at Indianapolis
Another game with the potential to shape the wild card field. The Colts are the better team and the team with the better trajectory. Indianapolis by seven.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver
The Steelers, who have been looking all over for an opponent that can expose them, stand a pretty good chance of going 2-3 over their last five games. If they want to hold on to the AFC North, and compete for a bye week, they need to win games like this one. And they should. Steelers by four.
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
This game really could go either way. But since the Vikings battled to a tie in Green Bay back in week two, I guess I have to give them the benefit of the doubt in their own building. Minnesota by three.
Tennessee (+6) at Houston
If Marcus Mariota plays, the Titans should be able to keep the margin here to a field goal, maybe less. But I’ve got a strong sense he won’t end up playing (or he’ll play, but not terribly well). So I’ll say Texans by seven.
