Week Eleven Picks
Week ten was rough enough that I can’t really get worked up about my 9-5 finish picking straight up.
What about 5-8-1 against the spread? Yeah. Ugh.
I’m now 91-55-2 (.622) straight up, 66-75-7 (.470) against the spread for the season.
Let’s see if I can’t make it worse. Here’s what not to expect in week eleven.
Green Bay (+3) at Seattle
I can’t for the life of me figure out how the Packers are getting points from the lowly Seahawks here. I mean, I keep hearing/reading about how Aaron Rodgers’ team still has a great shot not only of getting to but winning the Super Bowl. And, you know, if you don’t count their four losses, the Packers are undefeated. Think about that for a minute. Meanwhile Seattle is a mere 4-5. And since Aaron Rodgers isn’t their quarterback, all of the Seahawks’ losses count. So, yeah, I for one believe firmly that the 4-0(4)-1 Packers can travel to Seattle on short rest, figure out how to play run defense on the way, and beat a home team that has effectively lost its division and has its back against the wall in the wild card chase. Totally. Either that or I figure the Seahawks win this one by roughly six points. Um, let’s just go with that last thing.
Carolina (-4) at Detroit
The Panthers have had a lot to think about over the last week, none of it pleasant. I’m sure they’re about ready to take out some of their angrier thoughts on someone. And, well, there’s that thing where the Lions have given up on the season. Carolina by a touchdown.
Dallas (+3) at Atlanta
I’m beginning to get the sense that the postseason may need to happen without either of these teams. Unbalanced home team beats unbalanced road team. By a point.
Cincinnati (+4) at Baltimore
The Bengals can lose this game and still fool themselves into believing they can recover and make a run at a wild card slot. The Ravens can’t. So whatever quarterback Baltimore puts on the field needs to take advantage of Cincinnati’s disaster of a defense. I suspect he will. Ravens by a field goal.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars haven’t won a game since week four. They’ve beaten exactly one good team all season. And that was in week two. It’s hard to see anything but a brutal outcome here. Steelers by 14.
Tennessee (+2) at Indianapolis
The Colts have no defense. The Titans have nothing but defense. Indy by three, I guess.
Houston (-3) at Washington
The Texans have gone from 0-3 to 6-3, which is pretty nice for them. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when they next run into a good opponent. But that may not be until January. Unless it’s here. I still have no idea what to make of the Racists. Maybe they’re actually a decent football team. If they are, they win this one. If not … Texans by one.
Tampa Bay (+1.5) at NY Giants
Are the 2018 Giants actually capable of winning two straight? If it costs them draft position, yeah, I’m quite sure they are. New Jersey by four.
Denver (+7) at LA Chargers
The Chargers continue to over-inflate their reputation by beating up on also-rans. Los Angeles by 10.
Oakland (+5) at Arizona
I could have this wrong, but I suspect that when you’re getting five points from a team that averages less than two touchdowns per game it’s a sign either that you’re in serious trouble or that maybe, just maybe, the handicappers have it in their heads that you secretly want to lose. Cardinals by six.
Philadelphia (+8.5) at New Orleans
If there’s anyone out there today who still believes the Eagles can repeat as champions, one suspects they’ll be disabused of that notion by the time this game is halfway over. Saints by 17.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago
If the Bears win here, they likely won’t need to worry about the week 17 rematch in Minnesota. (They should be locked in as the NFC three seed by that point.) Chicago by five.
Kansas City (+3.5) at LA Rams
Neither team will be seen in Mexico City. Neither defense will be seen in Los Angeles. Rams by a field goal.
