Week Ten Picks
I’d probably be somewhat pleased about having gone 7-6 with my picks against the spread in week nine — if I hadn’t also gone 7-6 straight up.
The former result is still awful, but it’s less awful than usual. The latter is well below even my shabby standards.
I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to say. Oh, except that for the season, I’m now 82-50-2 (.619) straight up, and 61-67-6 (.477) against the spread.
Let’s see if I can flip the weekly results below the .500 threshold this week.
Here’s what not to expect.
Carolina (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m pretty sure the Panthers are the better team in this match. But not by much. Certainly not by enough to move me to take the road team in a Thursday night game. Steelers by a field goal.
Buffalo (+6.5) at NY Jets
I’m not convinced this actually qualifies as a professional football game. Jets win 9-0.
Atlanta (-4) at Cleveland
Wasn’t one of these teams supposed to be good this season? Falcons by a point.
New Orleans (-5.5) at Cincinnati
The 5-3 Bengals are going 4-4 down the stretch. This is the first of two straight losses to start them down that path. Saints by 13.
Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay
Have the Buccaneers sprouted a defense? No? Good to know. Racists by a touchdown.
New England (-6.5) at Tennessee
Big three predictive stats first: Scoring differential, Patriots +4.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +9.8; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +5. That would point to Patriots victory even if the Titans weren’t a significantly unbalanced team. And the Titans are a significantly unbalanced team. New England by 10.
Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis
Imagine going from Super Bowl LII.125 champions in week two to getting three points in the battle for the AFC South basement in week 10. Quite a tumble for the Jaguars, wouldn’t you say? Colts by six.
Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago
I’d say that if the Lions can’t find a way to win this one, they can call it a season if it weren’t for the fact that the Lions already have called it a season. Bears by 14.
Arizona (+16.5) at Kansas City
For one week, it will look like the Chiefs have a defense. Kansas City by three touchdowns.
LA Chargers (-10) at Oakland
It will not look like the Raiders have a defense. It would be almost impossible to make it look like the Raiders have a defense. Chargers keep it on the ground all day, mercifully speeding up the game, but also limiting their margin of victory. Los Angeles by nine.
Miami (+9.5) at Green Bay
The Packers are 0-2 since returning from their bye. They’re 3-4-1 on the season and facing consecutive road games in Seattle and Minnesota in weeks 11 and 12. If they don’t win here, they’re done. The good news for Green Bay (however short-lived it may prove) is that they’re winning here. Packers by seven.
Seattle (+9.5) at LA Rams
The Rams have pretty much sewn up the NFC West. Their win here won’t make it official, but it might as well. Rams by 10.
Dallas (+7) at Philadelphia
The Eagles have had their struggles this season, and I expect those to continue down the stretch. But the Cowboys are in a full-on tailspin. Philadelphia by six.
NY Giants (+3) at San Francisco
Oh, cool. I can go to bed early. 49ers by six.
