Week Fourteen Picks
My week thirteen results aren’t anything I’m likely to thump my chest about, but they were certainly respectable.
I pegged 12 out of 16 game winners straight up and went 9-6-1 against the spread. I can live with that.
The football gods, on the other hand, probably aren’t terribly thrilled. I’m sure they don’t care for seeing me feeling somewhat comfortable with myself at 131-61 (.682) straight up and 94-89-9 (.513) against the spread three quarters of the way through the season. Accordingly, I’m also sure they’ve got some awful fate in store for me.
Here then is what to expect the exact opposite of in week fourteen.
New Orleans (-1.5) at Atlanta
One can say, as many have, that they Falcons absolutely have to win this game if they want to keep pace with the other NFC teams jockeying for a postseason berth. And it’s certainly true. A loss here, among other things, would all but officially put the NFC South out of reach and reduce the Falcons’ hopes to landing the six seed, maybe the five. But I would posit that this game is considerably bigger than that. The Falcons have to know that if they can’t win with the Saints traveling to Atlanta on short rest, there’s little hope they’re going to reverse that outcome in New Orleans two weeks from now. And that’s to say that a loss here would put the Falcons on track for a 9-7 finish at best. With the Panthers and Seahawks both headed for 10-6, nine wins means an early start to the off-season. So Atlanta has home field on a Thursday night, which is big, plus whatever edge may actually come from needing the win more. Is that going to be enough? I don’t know. But if the Falcons are able to avoid committing turnovers in big spots (or maybe in any spots), I think it just might be. The Saints are the better team, but the Falcons find a way to win this game by three.
Detroit (-1) at Tampa Bay
Neither of these teams is very good. But the Lions are at least pretty average, and I sort of suspect that gives them the edge here. Detroit by four.
Chicago (+6) at Cincinnati
There’s at least an outside chance that these two teams spend the entire afternoon fumbling the ball back and forth to each other and the entire thing is played within 20 yards (on either side) of midfield. Truly compelling stuff. Unless it’s a 0-0 tie, the Bengals win it by a field goal.
Indianapolis (+4) at Buffalo
The Bills might yet make the playoffs at 9-7. But probably not. That has almost nothing to do with this game. But, you know, I want nothing to do with this game. So there. Buffalo by six.
Dallas (-4.5) at NY Giants
Oh, bloody hell. This week just keeps getting better and better, doesn’t it? Cowboys by a touchdown.
Oakland (+4) at Kansas City
The Chiefs keep finding new ways to demonstrate that they’re way worse than I think — probably worse than anyone thinks. I guess, I’m ready to embrace that. Kansas City should win, so I anticipate they will lose. Raiders by a point.
Minnesota (-2.5) at Carolina
The could turn out to be the last game the Panthers lose. Or, you know, at least until wild card weekend when they get crushed by the Saints (again). Vikings by three.
Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland
No, this will not be the week when the Browns finally win a game. Stop saying, or even thinking, stupid stuff like that. You’re embarrassing yourself. Packers by a field goal.
San Francisco (+3) at Houston
Can I please ask you to do me a favor? Tune in to this game and let me know if you spot a defense anywhere on the field at any point. Texans by five.
Washington (+6) at LA Chargers
The AFC West belongs to the Chargers. Weird but true. And this game is just another, fairly easy, step on the Chargers’ path to the playoffs. Los Angeles by nine.
NY Jets (-1) at Denver
Getting a point. At home. Against a team that has turned heads only by virtue of its failure thus far to tank the season. That’s gotta feel good. Jets by a touchdown.
Tennessee (-3) at Arizona
I expect the Titans and Jaguars to continue to run neck and neck straight through to their week 17 meeting in Nashville, which will decide which team gets to host the Ravens and which has to travel to the Chargers for the first round of the playoffs. I’ve got the Titans at 10-5 going into that game. In the meantime, I’ve got them 9-4 coming out of this one. Tennessee by four.
Philadelphia (+2.5) at LA Rams
There’s very likely a first-round bye on the line in this game. Bye goes to the home team. Rams by one.
Seattle (+2.5) at Jacksonville
I think the Jaguars right now are the team the Seahawks would like to be. That’s not a bad position to be in. Jags by three.
Baltimore (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
The Ravens defense has picked off a league-best 20 balls this season. One has to wonder whether this is where the Steelers’ recent flirtations with disaster finally lead to a loss. And yet … home field and a chance to wrap up the AFC North championship … mmmmm … I still kinda feel like Pittsburgh finds a way to pull this one out. Steelers turn a 17-19 deficit into a 20-19 advantage as the final seconds tick off the clock.
New England (-11) at Miami
Division games are always tough. And the Patriots are not at full strength. But the Dolphins are just a terrible, terrible football team. And the AFC East title is on the line. New England by 14.
