Week Four Picks
Seems like maybe we got upside-down week out of the way early this season.
Or maybe not. Three weeks in, it’s kind of hard to tell whether some of last week’s results — seven underdogs won straight up — were quirky or revealing. Maybe some of the bad teams are better than we thought. Maybe some of the good ones aren’t quite so good.
Until I have solid evidence to the contrary, though, I’m going with the early upside-down week theory. But that’s mostly because it allows me to feel not so terrible about my picking performance.
I went 8-8 straight up in week three, 7-9 against the spread. That’s pretty damned terrible. And it dragged down my performance or the season, which had been solidly on the bad side of average going in. I’m now 27-20 (.574) straight up, 22-25 (.468) against the spread.
Come back next week and see me spin up another excuse for a poor performance. Until then, here’s what not to expect in week four.
Chicago (+7) at Green Bay
It’s hard to imagine the Packers have solved their glaring O line issues over the last four days. Or solved their problems on defense. Maybe they’ll be able to do some of that work as they prepare to host Dallas in week five. In the meantime, Green Bay should still be able to figure out a way to get out of Chicago with a win. Packers by six.
New Orleans (-3) vs. Miami at Wembley Stadium, London
If you can’t control the Jets, do you have any hope of containing the Saints? The answer is no, you really, really don’t. Playing on the soccer pitch at Wembley may slow New Orleans down a bit, I suppose (didn’t seem to be much of a problem for the mighty Jaguars, though). But what does that figure out to? I’m thinking if the Dolphins have a good day, we’re looking at Saints by 10.
Carolina (+9) at New England
The Panthers haven’t shown much on offense this season. But their defense was looking pretty good through two games. Until they ran into an NFL offense for the first time. And, yeah, I do know that the New England D has struggled. But the New Orleans D is no great shakes either, and it managed to hold Carolina to 13 points. Cam Newton and Tom Brady have been sacked 10 times each through three games. That’s a problem in the making for both Carolina and New England. But it’s notable that Brady’s 10 sacks have come on 120 drops back while Newton’s have come on 93. It’s also notable that Brady’s thrown for a league-leading 1,092 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions while Newton’s managed 566 yards, two TDs and four picks. Last week, I was reluctant to give up 13.5 points (and I was right). This week, the idea of giving nine doesn’t trouble me in the least. New England by 13.
LA Rams (+6.5) at Dallas
Neither of these teams has managed a win over an impressive opponent so far this season. (Each is 0-1 against tough competition.) And if the Rams are the team I went into the season thinking they were, my opening statement will still apply come Sunday evening. Cowboys by a touchdown.
Detroit (off) at Minnesota
I feel the same way the oddsmakers do about this game, which is to say that I can’t guess at what’s likely to happen without knowing whether Sam Bradford will play. My hunch is he won’t. So my hunch is the Lions win. Let’s say it’s by a field goal.
Tennessee (-1.5) at Houston
The AFC South is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and entertaining divisions in football, not just this season but potentially for the next several. The Titans are a bit farther along in their development than the Texans at the moment, so I’m looking for them to pull out the win here. But the margin might be just a point.
Jacksonville (-3) at NY Jets
It’s starting to look like the Jags may be for real. Unless the trip back from London took too much out of them, Jacksonville should take this one handily. And even if they’re a bit jetlagged, I’m thinking Jaguars by a touchdown.
Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland
Enjoy your Sunday afternoon, football fans of Ohio. Should be a real barn burner. Bengals by four. Or more than four. Whatever.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Baltimore
Game one of the 2017 AFC North championship series goes to the team with the quarterback who throws more touchdowns than picks. Evidence suggests that should be the visitors. Pittsburgh by six.
Buffalo (+8) at Atlanta
If this game were in Buffalo, I’d … well, I’d still pick the Falcons straight up, but I might take the Bills to cover. Atlanta by 10.
NY Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay
Whichever of these teams I pick to win is gonna lose. Because that’s what they do. You can thank me later, Giants fans. Tampa by seven.
Philadelphia (+1.5) at LA Chargers
Maybe the Chargers are better than they’ve looked. Maybe the Eagles are worse. Maybe the cross-country travel will trip up the Eagles. Or maybe the Eagles win this one by three.
San Francisco (+7) at Arizona
The first of three straight road games for the 49ers. They may win the middle one. Cardinals by four.
Oakland (+3) at Denver
I’m not sure whether to take the team with the quarterback or the team with the defense. So I’m taking the easy way out and going with the home team (also the one with the D). Broncos win it straight up. It’s a push with the points.
Indianapolis (+13) at Seattle
The Seahawks have not looked good so far this season. But the Colts have been downright awful. I’m riding with not awful and looking forward to a riveting Sunday night. Seattle by 12. (See what I did there?)
Washington (+7) at Kansas City
Alex Smith in his career is a 62 percent passer with a TD/INT ratio of 1.8/1 and a passer rating of 86.2. He was better than that in his first four seasons in Kansas City, completing 64.5 percent of this passes, throwing 2.7 TDs for each interception, and earning a passer rating of 92.2. Only once has he ever led the league in any statistical category for a season. That was 2011, when his interception percentage, 1.1, was the high mark. Through his first three games this season, Smith has a league-best completion percentage of 77.4 and a league-best passer rating of 132.7. He’s thrown seven touchdowns, against zero interceptions, second only to Tom Brady (8/0). I’m not saying Smith’s numbers are going to regress toward the mean, but … um, yeah, that’s actually what I’m saying. Maybe starting here. Kansas City still comes out on top by a field goal.
