Week Three Picks
It’ll be about two more weeks before we really start to know anything about the identities of NFL teams in 2017. And then I won’t have any excuse for picking games so terribly.
For the nonce, I’m gonna keep on blaming uncertainty for my failures. Which is to say, hey, it’s not my fault I stunk up the field again in week two. I went 10-6 straight up, 7-9 against the spread. For the season, that gets me to 19-12 (.613) straight up, 15-16 (.484).
Sure, it could have been worse. But then again, it probably will be.
Here’s what not to expect in week three.
LA Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco
The Rams are probably the better team in this match. Better by enough to win on the road on short rest? Don’t know. Don’t think so. Niners by a point.
Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium, London
The Ravens have started this season doing one of the things a team needs to do in order to position itself for success over the long haul, winning the games it’s supposed to win. Things get a bit more challenging next week when Baltimore hosts the Pittsburgh. But that’s next week. The only major difference between this game and the Ravens’ first two is setting. Let’s deduct a touchdown from Baltimore’s average margin of victory in those games to account for jetlag and call it Ravens by 10.
Cleveland (-1) at Indianapolis
You know things are bad when you’re getting a point from the Browns in your own building. But I’m not convinced the Colts are quite that awful. Indianapolis by a field goal.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Chicago
The Bears are pretty much exactly that awful. Pittsburgh by 13.
Miami (-6) at NY Jets
And so are the Jets. Even adjusting for division rival familiarity, I like the visitors to come out ahead here by at least seven.
Denver (-3) at Buffalo
The Bills might actually have a solid defense. The Broncos certainly do. Denver by four.
Houston (+13.5) at New England
You know, I’m totally aware of the thing with rookie quarterbacks vs. Bill Belichick-coached teams. And I know the Texans are one of about 16 NFL teams that have struggled with offensive line play so far this season. But I’m also aware of the fact that the Houston Texans have a strong defense. So, yeah, I’m taking the Patriots here. And I won’t be surprised if they win by 10. But I’m not giving most of two touchdowns.
New Orleans (+6) at Carolina
The Panthers might not have enough offense to overcome the Saints. Or they might have just enough to get by, which would spell doom for New Orleans in 2017. Carolina by three.
Tampa Bay (+1) at Minnesota
The Bucs are a better team than most realize. That’ll change soon enough. Tampa Bay by four.
Atlanta (-3) at Detroit
Maybe I’ve been wrong all along. Maybe there will be no Super Bowl hangover for the Falcons. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing coming out of this game. Atlanta by one.
NY Giants (+6) at Philadelphia
If New Jersey doesn’t solve its offensive line issues soon, they’re going to end up out of the running by midseason. It would be sad to see a team squander all that potential. But it happens sometimes. Eagles by three.
Seattle (+2.5) at Tennessee
The Seahawks appear to have some things they need to work out. Titans by six.
Kansas City (-3) at LA Chargers
The Chiefs so far have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chargers may be among the worst. Kansas City by seven.
Cincinnati (+9) at Green Bay
The Packers have a few things to work on. The Bengals have everything to work on. Green Bay by 13.
Oakland (-3) at Washington
The Racists haven’t been able to so much as slow down an opponents’ passing attack so far this season. I don’t expect them to start here. Oakland by 10.
Dallas (-3) at Arizona
The Cowboys can’t afford to drop a second straight game. I suspect they won’t. Dallas by one.
