Week Thirteen Picks
You might think it would be easy to make your peace with being awful picking against the spread if you were someone who never actually wagered any money on football. Seriously, why should I care? Point spreads are for gamblers. Gambling is for fools. And while I’m certainly a fool, I’m not a fool of that particular variety. So I make the picks, and if I get them wrong, I should be able to laugh it off and walk away.
Not so much.
I made a pretty decent show of it picking straight up in week 12. Finished 12-4, which gets me to 110-65-2 (.627) on the season. That should feel good, I suppose. But all I can focus on is the fact that I went 6-10 against the spread. And that lands me at a dismal 78-96-3 (.449) for the season. I don’t like any of it. Not one little bit.
I don’t expect to get any better, either. Still, somehow, I persist. Because I’m that variety of fool.
Here’s what not to expect as we hit the three-quarter mark of the 2016 season.
Dallas (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Vikings pass defense is sufficiently tough that one has to imagine they’ll be able to slow the Cowboys down a bit. If it weren’t for fact that both teams are playing on a full week’s rest (that is, if Dallas was traveling on a short week), that might be enough to make this a tossup. But I don’t think Minnesota can control the Dallas ground game. And that, I expect, will make all the difference. I think Dallas keeps the Minnesota offense off the field, controls the tempo of the game, and comes out on top by six.
Denver (-5) at Jacksonville
Denver needs a win. Jacksonville needs an actual pro football team. (Or maybe it doesn’t need a football team at all. I don’t know. Don’t really care.) It doesn’t matter much where this game is being played, the Broncos win it by at least double the spread.
Kansas City (+3.5) at Atlanta
Maybe if the Chiefs hadn’t just played a bruising, 75-minute game at Denver … . But, you know, even then Kansas City would be playing its second straight road game against a strong opponent. And they’d probably need to come out ahead by at least two turnovers to be able to pull off the upset, which isn’t likely against the Falcons. So I’m going to say Atlanta by a field goal.
Houston (+6.5) at Green Bay
This may be the Packers’ best remaining opportunity to string two wins together. (No, I don’t think Green Bay can run the table.) It certainly looks like a great opportunity for the Texans to keep the AFC South race tight by extending their losing streak to three games. Green Bay by four.
Philadelphia (-1) at Cincinnati
Neither of these teams is very good. The Eagles are probably a bit less not good than the Bengals. But location may equalize that. I like the underdogs at home here. Cincinnati by a point.
Detroit (+5.5) at New Orleans
The over/under on this game is 53.5. That’s 7.7 points more than the average total scoring in NFL games this season. One of these teams has a D that probably can’t contain the other team’s highly productive offense. The other team has virtually no defense at all. So, yeah, I’m gonna say bet the over. Also, Saints by three.
San Francisco (+1.5) at Chicago
If you’re going to be one of the top prospects in the 2017 NFL draft, it might be a good idea to watch this game. Otherwise, if you’re unfortunate enough to live in a media market where this is your only choice, for god’s sake find something better to do with your time. Go chop down a tree and drag it into your living room. Make a giant baking soda volcano in your bathtub. Watch one of those overlong, pointless Gilmore Girls episodes. Anything. It’s entirely possible these two teams stumble into some previously undiscovered way for both of them to lose. If not, I don’t know, 49ers by a point. (Because that’s where the damned dart stuck, OK? That’s why.)
Los Angeles (+13.5) at New England
If you follow me on social media, you may have seen my rundown of the (somewhat limited) history of the Belichick-Brady era Patriots vs. teams coached by Jeff Fisher. It’s not terribly helpful in terms of predicting the outcome of this game, but I thought it was kind of interesting just the same. Here’s what I’m thinking in regard to Sunday afternoon. Bill Belichick’s got two games worth of film to study on the Rams rookie quarterback. That ought to be sufficient. And, hell, it’s not like opposing coaches having less film to review has proven particularly helpful to young Mr. Goff. So that would seem to put the home team in a fairly comfortable position. And here are your big three predictive stats: scoring differential, Patriots +7.4; passer rating differential, Patriots +18.1; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +7. I think it’s likely to be a long afternoon in Foxborough for the Rams. New England by 17.
Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
The winner of this game stays in the hunt for a spot in the playoffs. The loser not so much. (And neither gets out of the wild card round, anyhow.) I suspect the Ravens defense will be just a bit too much for the Dolphins to overcome. Baltimore by three.
Buffalo (+3) at Oakland
There’s just no way a one-dimensional team like the Bills keeps ups with the Raiders in Oakland. It’s really that simple. Oakland by nine.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at San Diego
If you can beat the Chiefs in Kansas City one week, and you can beat the Seahawks anywhere the next, you ought to be able to follow it up by beating the Chargers in San Diego. I think. At the very least, you can usually count on the Chargers to beat themselves. Bucs by four.
Washington (+2.5) at Arizona
The second of three straight road games losses for the Racists. Cardinals by one.
NY Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh
I think these teams are fairly evenly matched. But I also think the Steelers need a win here a whole lot more than the Giants, who can drop their next two and still finish 11-5 and grab the NFC five seed, which is about their most realistic seeding anyhow (they’re not overtaking the Cowboys). I suspect the need factor, home field, and probably a key takeaway, add up to Steelers win. But not by six. Let’s go with three.
Carolina (+6.5) at Seattle
The last time these two teams met … well, the Panthers were a lot better and the Seahawks were a lot more banged up; and the game was played in Charlotte; and Seattle still very nearly battled back from at 31-point halftime deficit. So I guess what I’m saying is, no, I don’t much like Carolina’s chances here. Seahawks by a touchdown.
Indianapolis (-1) at NY Jets
Last I checked, the Colts still hadn’t figured out how to play run defense. Jets by six.
