Week Nine Picks
Yeah, OK, I’m just not getting any better at this. I don’t have any excuses to offer. I’m just, you know, not making the grade.
Week eight wasn’t a complete disaster for me picking straight up. I came in at 8-4-1 (enough with the ties, already). That probably wouldn’t be good enough to have kept me in the running in your office pool. But I’m not in your office pool, am I? (The other point of good news for me there is that I don’t have to listen to Jeff from accounts receivable talk about his fantasy team. Ever.) That gets me to 71-47-2 (.600) on the season.
Picking against the spread in week eight, I got more evidence that an old college professor (I mean, he wasn’t old; not then, anyhow; he’d be old now, because I’m old and I was a student back then) was probably talking mostly to me when he said, repeatedly, “Gambling is losing.” But here again, my cheapness compensates for my stupidity, as no actual bets were placed to make me truly regret my 6-7 finish. And that brings me to a very impressive record of 54-65-1 (.454) for the season.
Let’s have a look at what not to expect in week nine, shall we?
Atlanta (-4) at Tampa Bay
Predicted kickoff to punt ratio in this game: 12/2. The scoreboard operator gets a workout and Atlanta comes out ahead by six.
Jacksonville (+7.5) at Kansas City
I’m not sure these teams belong in the same league, let alone the same stadium. A defensive touchdown transforms a strong Kansas City victory into a blowout. Chiefs by 23.
Detroit (+6) at Minnesota
Six is a lot to give in a divisional game. Two weeks ago, that might not have seemed like a huge factor to me. The Lions can’t stop the pass. And Detroit hasn’t won a road game since week one. But then the Vikings went and fell apart a little bit. So now here I am, thinking six points is a lot to give in a divisional game. Don’t get me wrong; the Vikings are winning this game. I just think maybe four points makes more sense than six.
Philadelphia (+2.5) at NY Giants
The Giants ought to win this game. They’re coming off a bye. They’re hosting a division rival that’s playing its second straight game on the road, the first of which was a tough loss in OT to another division foe. And if they’re going to stay alive in the wild card race (Dallas is winning the NFC East title), the Giants need to win games like this. Those factors should be enough for New Jersey to get the job done. But, you know, I just don’t see it. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to view the Giants as an incomplete team. Can’t run the ball. Can’t hold on to the ball. Can’t score. That combination’s a problem. Eagles by a field goal.
Dallas (-7) at Cleveland
I feel fairly confident predicting that this game will not go into extra innings. (Neither is either team likely to be up 3-1 at any point.) Dallas by 10.
NY Jets (+3.5) at Miami
The Dolphins may yet turn out to be the second best team in the AFC East. Not a close second, mind you. But second. Miami by three.
Pittsburgh (even) at Baltimore
The Ravens have yet to beat a good team this season. I don’t see that changing here, regardless of whether Ben Roethlisberger plays. Pittsburgh by four.
New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco
The over/under on this game is set at 52.5. I suspect that may be a tad low. Saints 38, 49ers 27.
Carolina (-3) at Los Angeles
I hope the Rams defense is nice to Cam Newton so he doesn’t have to tell the commissioner on them. Or maybe everyone could just play football. Panthers by six.
Indianapolis (+7.5) at Green Bay
Hey, Super Bowl preview right here. Oh, wait. You say the Colts are … what? Terrible? Barely capable of getting by bad teams? The Packers, on the other hand, have proven quite good at getting by bad teams. I’ll go with solidly mediocre (and possibly still capable of more) at home over solidly in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. Packers by nine.
Tennessee (+5) at San Diego
The Chargers aren’t great at anything. In fact, they aren’t even good at many things. But they do pretty OK with stopping the run. San Diego by a touchdown.
Denver (even) at Oakland
The Raiders are legitimately pretty damned good for a change. Or at least they’re pretty damned good on offense. But good enough to overcome the Broncos D? Not so much. And Oakland’s weak enough on the other side of the ball that you can expect Denver to put up some points. Oakland keeps it close, but Denver comes out with a win. By a field goal.
Buffalo (-7) at Seattle
As uneven a season as it’s been for them, the Seahawks have managed to overcome the Dolphins and Jets. One is inclined to anticipate they’ll achieve similar results as they round out their series against the three lesser AFC East teams. (Next week’s opponent may present rather more of a challenge.) Seahawks by six.
