Week Seven Picks
It just keeps getting worse.
Actually, scratch that. The problem’s nothing to do with any it. The truth is, I keep getting worse.
I had my most miserable showing yet in week six, finishing the week a sorry 8-7 straight up, and a much sorrier still 6-8-1 against the spread. I’m not sure what to say other than ugh. For the season, that brings me to 55-37 (.598) straight up and, ulp, 42-49-1 (.462) against the spread.
And yet, I will continue to roll this same rock up this same hill ad infinitum. You can’t fix stupid.
So let’s waste no more time getting my drive for failure underway for the slate of games ahead.
Here’s what not to expect.
Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay
I don’t believe for a second that Aaron Rodgers‘ ongoing struggles indicate that he’s in an irreversible decline. But neither do I believe Rodgers is likely to have an opportunity to address whatever issues are dogging him while quarterbacking a team with no real running game. None of what’s wrong with Rodgers or the rest of the offense should pose a real problem as the Packers host the Bears on a short week. But I’m sure as hell not giving a touchdown plus. Green Bay by four.
NY Giants (-3) vs Los Angeles at Twickenham Stadium, London
The Giants probably shouldn’t expect to win a lot of games in which they end up a -3 in giveaway/takeaway. I mean, obviously, it can happen. But it’s not something you want to let yourself feel too sure about. New Jersey by a point.
Minnesota (-2.5) at Philadelphia
And then, of course, there are the teams that know how to hold on to the ball. These two squads have three giveaways between them. On the season. That’s one lost fumble each, plus a pick for the Eagles. I’ve got a feeling the Eagles stop their two-game skid in this homecoming game. Philadelphia by a field goal.
New Orleans (+6.5) at Kansas City
I don’t like the idea of picking New Orleans on the road, but I just don’t know that Kansas City has the juice to win a shootout. Saints by two.
Washington (+1) at Detroit
I’m still not ready to buy into the Racists. But this week, against an opponent with no ground game, I’m on board. Washington by three.
Cleveland (+10) at Cincinnati
I wonder if anyone in Cleveland even cares that this game is being played. Bengals by a touchdown.
Buffalo (-3) at Miami
The Bills rush for 166 yards yards a game. The Dolphins allow 147 rushing yards per game. This game may be on the books by 2:30. Buffalo by 21.
Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville
Since neither team has a defense, I’m taking the one with the better offense. That’s the Raiders. Oakland by six.
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee
Good news for Andrew Luck: Given the state of the Colts run D, he’s unlikely to spend enough time on the field this week to take his customary four sacks. So that’s something. I think. Titans by four.
Baltimore (+1) at NY Jets
The Ravens close their two-week residency in the Meadowlands with a decisive victory over the weaker of the New Jersey teams. Baltimore by 10.
San Diego (+6.5) at Atlanta
Welcome to the air show. Falcons by five.
Tampa Bay (-2) at San Francisco
I don’t know which of these teams is less interested in winning football games. So I’m going with the favorite. Tampa by a field goal.
New England (-7) at Pittsburgh
Here’s are your big three predictive stats, all based on results achieved by the Patriots playing four of six games without Tom Brady and the Steelers playing all but one series of six games with Ben Roethlisberger: Scoring differential, Patriots +2.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +8.8; takeaway/giveaway differential, Patriots +6. And, you know, it’s Brady and Landry Jones under center for their respective teams this weekend. New England by 13
Seattle (+1.5) at Arizona
The Seahawks’ home win against the Falcons last week is the only victory either of these teams has managed over a strong opponent this season. That’s nice for Seattle. But I have no reason to believe it travels. Cardinals by three.
Houston (+7.5) at Denver
The last time Brock Osweiler played a football game in Denver, he was the better choice over a broken down Peyton Manning. That wasn’t such a great accomplishment, as Osweiler’s performance with the Texans this season has made abundantly clear. The Texans are a very different 4-2 than the Broncos. That’ll show in this game. Denver by seven.
