Conference Championship Picks, Part Two
I can’t say I’ve spent as much time thinking about this game as I have about the AFC Championship. I can’t say I’ve felt as if I needed to, either.
Atlanta (+5) at Philadelphia
You don’t need a weatherman to know which way this game goes. OK, seriously, even with the threat of a winter storm removed (if looks like the snow will stop falling and the field will be cleared long before kickoff), and star wide receiver Terrell Owens out of the game with his leg in a cast, I can’t for the life of me see how Philadelphia can fail to win this game. Of course, the Eagles have managed to blow three straight NFC Championship games going into this weekend, and weird things can happen with Michael Vick in the game, so one never knows for absolute certain. But still … .
Since we looked at the numbers on the AFC game (see below), let’s look at the numbers here as well. (These are regular season stats. I’m thinking let’s just go ahead and throw out last weeks Divisional Playoff results entirely, since clearly neither St. Louis nor Minnesota ever belonged in the playoffs to begin with; the NFC has been a two-team conference for months now.)
The Eagles offense was ranked ninth in the league in terms of average total yards, having averaged 351.1 per game, eighth in scoring, with an average of 24.1 points per game. It faces an Atlanta defense that ranked 14th overall, allowing 325.4 yards per game, and in points allowed, with an average of 21.1.
The Falcons offense, by comparison, was 20th in overall yardage, averaging 317.7 per game and 16th in points scored, with an average of 21.3. It will be up against a Philadelphia D that was 10th overall, allowing 319.7 yards a game, and, most important, tied New England for second in points allowed, giving up an average of only 16.3 points per game.
The Eagles offense matches up very well against Atlanta in the passing game. Philadelphia was sixth in the league in passing (albeit with T.O. in the lineup), averaging 263 yards per game and putting up 32 passing touchdowns while giving up only 11 interceptions. Atlanta’s D was ranked 24th against the pass, having given up 239.9 yards per game and 19 touchdowns, though with 19 picks.
The Falcons passing offense was one of the worst in the league. The team averaged only 138.2 yards per game in the air, throwing 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Eagles pass D, meanwhile, was the league’s 12th best, allowing just 217.2 yards per game on average, giving up 16 touchdowns and logging 17 picks.
Atlanta comes out ahead in comparison only in the run game. And even there, there’s reason to like the Eagles. The Falcons had the league’s best rushing offense, with an average of 167 per game (and an astounding 5.1 yards per carry) and scoring 20 touchdowns on the ground. Philadelphia’s run D while often portrayed as bad, was truly no worse than average. The Eagles 16th-ranked run defense gave up 118.9 yards per game on the ground. They gave up only 13 rushing touchdowns, though. And here’s the big thing: the Falcons have a very bad habit of dropping the ball on running plays, while the Eagles have a very good habit of stripping the ball on run defense. That bodes ill indeed for Atlanta.
There’s something else about Atlanta’s rushing numbers, too. They have more to do with the fact that Vick is the best rushing quarterback the league has ever seen than with success in a traditional running game. In fact, Atlanta has a fairly small offensive line, which can have trouble opening holes for the run, and should have some difficulty handling Philadelphia’s aggressive defensive lineman, particularly Jevon Kearse, one of the best and most versatile defensive ends in the league.
The Eagles know that what they have to do to win this game is keep Vick under control. They’ll probably do that by employing Kearse more like a linebacker than an end in an attempt to keep Vick in the pocket, where he has trouble. They’ll also try to do it in much the same way that New England controlled Peyton Manning and the Colts offense last week: by keeping Atlanta’s offense off the field. And while the Eagles probably don’t match up well enough in the running game to mount long, smashmouth drives, they do have the talent to keep drives going with short, high-percentage passing plays. The Eagles will need to get the cold side of Atlanta’s hot-and-cold defense, which they can probably expect given that the Falcons are a dome team that will be playing on grass.
I think the challenges here for the Falcons will prove to be too much. And while I still believe the Eagles are a team that can’t win the big game, I’m fairly certain they’ll get another chance to prove that in two weeks. I’m taking Philly and giving the points.
