Week Eleven Picks
My excuse, and I think it’s a good one, is that week 10 was upset week. The favorites finished 3-11 straight up. So how was I supposed to operate under those conditions? Exactly. In that context, I think my record of 5-9 straight up and 6-8 against the spread looks pretty good. Or, you know, maybe less awful. Doesn’t it?
I came away from that disaster 89-57 (.610) straight up, 65-78-3 (.455) against the spread.
But wait. I think things may be about to get worse. Because here’s the deal. I’ve got a job. Like, one that pays me money. This blog does not. (Shocking, right?) Plus it’s a job I like. And a job that keeps me busy. Thus, normally I do my picks writing in the evenings. But not this week. Because this week, I’ve had an obligation every evening. So this week, the time I’ve had for writing has come between 4 and 5:30 a.m. Wednesday and Thursday. Now, I’m always up at this time, but I wouldn’t say my brain is fully operational. So take that into account as you consider whatever nonsense I put forth below.
Here’s really, really, really what not to expect.
Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville
It’s hard to imagine a more fascinating way to spend a Thursday night than watching part one of the struggle to determine which is the worst team in the NFL’s worst division. Since these two teams don’t have a complete run offense between them, I’ve got to figure this one goes to the squad that’s least awful in the passing game. Taking both sides of the ball into account, that’s Tennessee. So let’s say Titans by a point.
Washington (+7) at Carolina
When a 9-0 team with one of the NFL’s best run offenses hosts a 4-5 team with one of the league’s worst run Ds, I figure I can limit the amount of time I spend thinking about matchups. Right? Panthers by 10.
Oakland (-2) at Detroit
I know the Lions are coming off a big, emotional win at Green Bay. And maybe it would be wise to expect that to carry Detroit in a game against a visiting team that doesn’t bring much to the field by way of a defense. But I still look at the Lions and see a team that can’t hold on to the ball. I think that becomes more of a problem than usual when you’re trying to keep up with an offense that can pile on the points. The home team will keep it fairly tight, but the visiting Raiders come out ahead by six.
Dallas (even) at Miami
The Cowpies get Tony Romo back. So I guess that’s exciting. I mean, to the extent anyone can get excited about a 2-7 team that has much bigger problems than quarterback play. Dolphins by a field goal.
Indianapolis (+6) at Atlanta
The win over the ghost of Peyton Manning and the Broncos right before the bye week will certainly be remembered as a high point in this season for the Colts. It may also end up being remembered as the last time during the 2015 season when the Colts and their fans had anything they could truly feel good about. Falcons by nine.
St. Louis (+2) at Baltimore
You know, I’m just not sure Case Keenum is going to save the Rams. But I suspect the St. Louis defense might make Keenum look good by carrying the team in this game. Rams by a field goal.
NY Jets (-2) at Houston
Four weeks ago, the Texans defense allowed five touchdowns in the first half of blowout loss on the road in Miami. They haven’t allowed a single TD in the 10 quarters of football they’ve played since. And on Monday night in Cincinnati, they made the previously undefeated Bengals look pedestrian. If Brian Hoyer were playing, I’d hitch my wagon to that and pick the Texans. But he isn’t. And I just don’t believe the Texans will be able to muster much offense behind T.J. Yates. I like the Jets to win a very low scoring game by a single point.
Green Bay (even) at Minnesota
A month ago, you could make the argument that Green Bay had the best team in the NFL. And even after they suffered back-to-back road losses to the Broncos and Panthers, it seemed reasonable to assume the Packers would turn it around and assert their usual position as one of the NFC’s elite teams. Following last week’s collapse at home against the Lions, however, it’s become hard to envision the Packers as a serious wild card contender. Maybe this is where that changes. Maybe this is where Green Bay seizes control of the NFC North and begins a push to the Super Bowl. Or maybe it’s where the Vikings, with their powerful run offense and stout pass D, send a definitive message that the old order of the division has changed. Minnesota by three.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Philadelphia
You know, on one hand I look at a matchup between two insanely up-and-down teams and figure Philadelphia is on schedule for a win and Tampa Bay is on schedule for a loss — and that should be the story. On the other hand, Mark Sanchez. Buccaneers by a point.
Denver (+1) at Chicago
Weird to say, but this game would be easier to pick if Fadin’ Manning were starting for Denver. In that case, I’d feel I could confidently take Chicago. With Brock Osweiler under center for the Broncos, on the other hand, I’m not so sure. Because if the Denver D could carry the team to seven victories with Manning disintegrating in front of our eyes, shouldn’t the key for Osweiler be simply not to throw an interception every fifth time he drops back? With all due respect to a Chicago team that I’m supposed to be excited about because they’ve won two straight, I think Osweiler gets his career as a starter going with a win. Broncos by four.
Cincinnati (+4) at Arizona
Carson Palmer’s revenge? Nah. Just the better team winning. Cardinals by six.
Kansas City (-3) at San Diego
The Chiefs have looked good in winning their last three games, but I’ll still be shocked if it turns out they can consistently beat good teams. Of course, this week Kansas City only needs to beat a bad team. I know they can handle that. Chiefs by eight.
San Francisco (+12.5) at Seattle
The Seahawks may be going nowhere fast, but when they arrive they’ll find the 49ers have been there for weeks. Seattle by 20.
Buffalo (+7) at New England
Even after that incredible comeback victory in New Jersey on Sunday, I still don’t believe the Patriots have any real hope of running the table. That’s not because of injuries. It’s just because I know some week some opponent is going to come up big. But not this week. Not this opponent. Passer rating differential: Patriots +5.8. Scoring differential: Patriots +6.2. Turnover differential: Patriots +1. New England by 10.
