Week Nine Picks
I think I need to stop guessing at when the Bengals’ inevitable collapse will come. I’m still as sure as anyone that it’s gonna happen. But it’s starting to seem like maybe not until January. And in the meantime, I’m doing myself no favors picking against Cincinnati simply because I think they shouldn’t be playing as well as they are.
That said, picking Cincy to beat Pittsburgh is about the only thing I’d fix from week eight. With the other three straight-up picks I got wrong, I can at least say take comfort in the fact that they were based on rational (if errant) analysis rather than pure gut. And in the end, 10-4 straight up feels pretty good. Can’t really say the same for my 6-7-1 week picking against the spread. But so it goes. As usual, it only underscores the greater wisdom of my refusal to gamble on football.
On the season, I’m now 76-43 (.639) straight up, 51-65-3 (.411) against the spread.
Let’s see how I can mess things up in week nine. Here’s what not to expect.
Cleveland (+11) at Cincinnati
I suspect it will be everything the Browns can do to keep Johnny Manziel sober past 8:30 on a Thursday night. Bengals by halftime. Uh, I mean Bengals by … oh, let’s go with 17.
Oakland (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
Derek Carr and the Oakland offense are for real. But the Oakland D is still a work in progress. And even without Le’Veon Bell, I suspect the Steelers will be able to manage enough offense to finish just ahead of the visitors. Pittsburgh by a field goal.
Jacksonville (+6) at NY Jets
For a team that needs desperately to get off the schneid, there’s really nothing better than a visit from the Jaguars. But since the Jets apparently will be starting a quarterback with half the usual number of functional hands, I’m only willing to give half the spread. New Jersey by three.
St. Louis (+2.5) at Minnesota
This game comes down to which team does a better job of taking away it’s opponent’s run game. And I think that’s likely to be the Rams. St. Louis wins a tough, defensive battle by a point.
Miami (+3) at Buffalo
The Dolphins aren’t losing this game because of a hangover from their Thursday night beatdown at the hands of the Patriots. They’re losing it because they’re a worse team than the Bills. And because they can’t stop the run. Buffalo by six.
Tennessee (+8) at New Orleans
Um, I think it’s safe to say that the Titans and Saints are headed in very different directions. Don’t you? New Orleans by 14.
Washington (+14) at New England
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Racists get DeSean Jackson back. That’s nice and all, but it’s hardly going to solve all of Washington’s problems. Certainly one player doesn’t fix the enormous imbalance between these two teams. Scoring differential: New England, +9.7. Passer rating differential: New England, +21.8 (this is a huge number). Turnover differential: New England, +9.
And, you know:
Vs:
I guess what I’m trying to say is, Patriots by 24.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Carolina
Having watched, on successive evenings in week eight, the Packers put up very little fight in a crushing loss to a Broncos team that I still consider suspect, and the Panthers narrowly escape in overtime after blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead to a Colts squad that hasn’t been able to get out of its own way all season, I find myself at almost a complete loss to assess this matchup. In the end, I think a second straight road game paired with an inability to stop the run dooms Green Bay to a second straight loss. But I’m not exactly going to be floored if it turns out I got it wrong. Carolina by four.
Atlanta (-7) at San Francisco
If the 49ers think Blaine Gabbert is the answer, I’m guessing the question must have been, “Could we possibly start a quarterback who could make Colin Kaepernick look good by comparison?” The Falcons may be frauds, but fake contenders still beat authentic garbage. Atlanta by 10.
NY Giants (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
I suspect it’s going to take the Giants a few weeks to recover completely from last week’s loss in the epic battle of New Orleans. (They fired Eli’s cannon, and the Saints kept a-comin’.) Playing a second straight road game isn’t going to speed up that process any, either. Accordingly, I think maybe New Jersey only wins this game by a point or two.
Denver (-4.5) at Indianapolis
In which even the reanimated corpse of their former quarterback proves to be more than the Colts can handle. Broncos by nine.
Philadelphia (-2.5) at Dallas
The only real difference between these two teams is that … well, it’s that the Cowboys are in worse shape than the Eagles, isn’t it? Philly by six.
Chicago (+4) at San Diego
Many teams in the NFL choose to field defenses. Neither the Bears nor the Chargers are among them. San Diego by three.
