Week Seventeen Picks
Yes, that’s right, I’m late. What’s it matter? We all know where this week’s games are headed, don’t we? Actually we don’t. Not against the spreads, anyhow. But, you know what? There’s no amount of insight anyone can offer there.
Seven of 12 playoff seeds are locked in. Four AFC teams — Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis and San Diego — and three NFC teams — Philadelphia, Atlanta and Green Bay — go into this weekend knowing exactly where they’re seeded for the postseason, which is to say with no incentive to play hard or risk injuries to key starters. Another 15 teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. That leaves 10 teams that aren’t either looking forward to next week or looking forward to next year.
The New York Jets, Denver, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Baltimore, all have some kind of hope (though it’s slim for those last two) of sneaking into one of the AFC wild card slots. And in the NFC, Seattle, which is in the playoffs, is looking to sew up a division title and a home game while St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina and New Orleans are all seeking some way into the post-season. Trouble is, only four of the teams that are still in contention are playing each other. Far more of this week’s games pit superior teams with no incentive to play against inferior teams that either downright desperate or at least interested enough in winning that they ought to come out ahead. But by how many points? Dunno. Every one of these things could be decided by 20. Or by three.
Looking for a smart wager? Stay the fuck away from professional football this week. Put the money aside and make an extra bet on the playoffs next week.
For whatever little it’s worth, though, here’s what I see:
Cincinnati (-3) at Philadelphia
The Bengals will look like the Bengals in the first half, when they’re up against the Eagles starters. Then in the second half, they’ll start to look more like the Bills. It won’t matter, but only because it doesn’t. Take Cincinnati and go on ahead and give those points.
Cleveland (+9.5)at Houston
No one’s going anywhere this season, but maybe the Texans will next year. Of course, that’s what people said about the Browns a year ago and look at how well that worked out. Take Houston and give the points.
Detroit (-3) at Tennessee
Another game with no implications for anyone. Except, you know, maybe Lions quarterback Joey Harrington, who needs very badly to end his season with a stellar performance. I’ve got a feeling he’ll get one and that the Tennessee offense, with an injured Billy Volek under center, will have a hard time keeping up.
Green Bay (+3) at Chicago
No team needs to keep up its momentum more than the Packers, who are in the playoffs after a mediocre season only because the Vikings organization doesn’t realize its got a shitty coach. I bet they play hard and find a way to pull off the upset even if their starters do end up on the bench by halftime.
Miami (+11) at Baltimore
The Ravens still have an outside chance of finding their way into the playoffs — if they win and every other AFC team in contention loses, they’re in, baby — so they’ll play their asses off for nothing. The Dolphins, who have found some kind of soul of late, will manage to make them sweat. And since both of these teams are D oriented, what you have to do here is take the Ravens straight up, but the Dolphins with the points.
Minnesota (-3.5) at Washington
The Vikings make it into the playoffs either by winning this game or by benefiting from a Jets victory over the Rams. They’ll get in the cheap way, not because the Redskins are a good team (they’re not; and without running back Clinton Portis, they’re less of a good team than usual), but because that’s the kind of football team the Vikings are. Take the Redskins to win it outright.
New Orleans (+8) at Carolina
In an ideal world this would be a slugfest, a battle to the finish between a home team that has battled its way back from an awful start to its post-Super Bowl season — and made a late push for the playoffs in spite of being burdened with major injuries — and a visitor that has had an up-and-down season but is determined to go somewhere for a change. But this is the real world. And in the real world, the Panthers put a major beating on the Saints. Take Carolina and give the points.
NY Jets (-3) at St. Louis
Two teams looking for a way into the playoffs. One of them belongs there. The other one should get the opportunity to start shopping for a new coach by the end of the day tomorrow (if they ‘re smart, which they usually aren’t). Take the Jets and give the points.
Pittsburgh (+9) at Buffalo
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has bruised ribs. Running back Jerome Bettis has a sprained ankle. And wide receiver Plaxico Burress is still nursing a hamstring injury. None of those guys will see the field this week in this game that means nothing to Pittsburgh. Add the fact that the Bills are hotter than hot and playing for a playoff spot (which, sadly, it appears they won’t get — they need a win and a loss by either Denver or the Jets, which ain’t gonna happen) and you get the formula for a Buffalo win. Take the Bills, but don’t give the damned points. Pittsburgh’s D has too much pride to let it get out of hand.
San Francisco (+13.5) at New England
The worst team the league goes to Foxborough to face the defending champions. It’s hard to imagine the Pats will do anything but win, second team or not. But two touchdowns is way too much to give in this situation.
Atlanta (+5) at Seattle
A win here, or a St. Louis loss to the Jets (see above) gives the Seahawks (who would be 9-7) the NFC West championship and the conference four seed, which illustrates just how sad the NFC is. Fortunately for Seattle, the Falcons have nothing to play for here. Not that it matters, really, since the Rams have no chance of beating the Jets anyhow. One way or the other, the Seahawks are a guaranteed first- or second-round casualty in the playoffs. Take the Hawks and … I don’t know, give the points? Who cares?
Tampa Bay (+3) at Arizona
No one goes anywhere no matter what happens here. And Buccaneers quarterback Brian Griese is hurt, so I guess you’ve gotta like the home team. I guess. Maybe Arizona wins it by exactly three. Yawn.
Indianapolis (+9) at Denver
Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy would have to be dumber than paint to let his starters anywhere near the field in this game. Not only do the Colts know they’ll be hosting a game next weekend, but they also know that if they lose this game, they’ll likely end up facing the Broncos again, whereas if they win this one, they might end up playing Buffalo. There’s no question which team they’d rather have, so my guess is they’ll find a way to lose to the Broncos here only to eat them for lunch in a week. Still, give nine to Indy? Are you insane?
Jacksonville (pick ’em) at Oakland
Chances are beyond good the Jaguars’ fading playoff hopes will have gone to black before this game kicks off. The Jags need a win plus losses by both Denver and Buffalo. That’s not in the cards. But I still expect Jacksonville to come out and play hard. They should have no trouble winning against an Oakland team that has a busy off-season ahead, because it desperately needs a new … well a new everything.
Kansas City (-3) at San Diego
It was obvious this game would have little meaning five months ago. You knew one team would be headed for the playoffs, probably as AFC West champs, and the other would be headed into a long off-season. It’s just weird which team turned out to be in which position. What does any of that mean. Nothing. Just like this game. Take the Chiefs and go on ahead and give the points.
Dallas (+3) at NY Giants
What a way to wrap up a season. Two once-great teams that have no chance of going anywhere facing each other to answer the question of which has fallen farther. Oh, and there’s the drama of Giants quarterback Eli Manning, at the beginning of his career, facing Cowboys quarterback Vinny Testaverde, who’s about three seasons past what should have been the end of his, but who’s nonetheless contemplating playing another. Oh, my, oh, my. This is pro football at its finest. Take the home team and give the points. Or go the other way. I don’t know.
Please, please get here soon, playoffs.
