Week Seven Picks
Just when I thought I was getting the hang of this football game picking thing.
Week six was brutal. For me, I mean. I finished 7-7 straight up, which is awful, but nothing compared to my 3-10-1 against the spread. That brilliant effort brings my season totals to 57-34 (.626) straight up and a dismal 37-52-2 (.452) against the spread. That feels not very good.
Speaking of not very good, have you seen this week’s slate of games? Not much to get excited about here. But I’ll see if I can spice it up by picking more than half of them wrong. Sound’s fun, right?
Here’s what not to expect.
Seattle (-6.5) at San Francisco
The NFL’s most sacked quarterback, Russell Wilson, gets a reprieve as his O line takes on a San Francisco pass rush that has managed just nine sacks through six games. And the Seahawks keep their dwindling postseason hopes alive while bringing their division rivals’ season to an early end. Seattle by a field goal.
Buffalo (-4.5) vs. Jacksonville, Wembley Stadium, London
There are some not very good NFL teams that I’d actually take to beat the hobbled Bills this week. They’re the teams that, records aside, at least have one or two things they do well. The Jaguars are not one of those teams. Buffalo by four.
Cleveland (+6) at St. Louis
You know that thing where the Browns defense can’t stop the run? That’s gonna be a problem here. Rams by six. (Also, bet the under. These two teams aren’t getting anywhere near 42.)
Pittsburgh (-2) at Kansas City
In other news, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs are still dead. Steelers by three.
Houston (+4.5) at Miami
It’s going to take more than a win over the Jaguars to make me believe in the Texans. Then again, it’s going to take more than a win over the Titans to make me believe in the Dolphins. Smart money goes with the home team. But my gut tells me the changes the Texans have made over the last couple of weeks are more sound than the changes made by the Dolphins. So I’m going with Houston in a close contest. The difference may be as little as a single point.
NY Jets (+9) at New England
The Jets are probably the second best team in the AFC East. But I don’t think they’re a close second. Certainly not as close as their record suggests. And I’ll give you that New Jersey appears to have a stout defense. That’s neither new nor shocking. But how stout that D may be is still, to my mind, very much in question. Here are some numbers to consider.
And, OK, so maybe you look at that and figure, “Yeah, those combined numbers don’t look so great, but I bet there are a couple of bums dragging down the field.” Not so much. The reality is that the Jets have yet to face a QB who’s having anything better than an average season. In fact, overall, the numbers posted through week six by the two QBs who took snaps for the Browns when they faced the Jets in New Jersey back in week one are the top end of the mix. That’s right, Josh McCown (passer rating, 94.6) and Johnny Manziel (99.7) are pulling up the stats of the other four. In order of best to worst passer rating, those four are, Ryan Tannehill (80.1), Sam Bradford (80.0), Kirk Cousins, (77.4), and Andrew Luck, (75.0). All of which is to say that the Jets pass defense hasn’t been tested in the way it’s likely to be tested by, you know, this guy.
Keep in mind, too, while the narrative about how different Todd Bowles is from Rex Ryan is largely accurate, one place it falls flat is the assertion (assumption, really) that Bowles is less inclined than Ryan to dial up blitzes. He isn’t. While the Jets D hasn’t been piling up sacks, it has made regular use of extra pass rushers to put pressure on opposing QBs. And though things may be different this week given the injury issues plaguing the Patriots offensive line, blitzing Brady typically hasn’t amounted to good strategy. (Yes, you need to disrupt Brady. But the teams that have done that successfully in the past have been teams that were able to bring pressure up the middle with three or four pass rushers.) I don’t have any data that suggests the Jets can’t succeed against a Brady-led offense. But there’s nothing I’ve seen that suggests strongly that they can succeed. And there’s lots of evidence to suggest that Brady and the Patriots offense are going to be tough to stop.
So what about the New England D vs. the Jets offense? Certainly it’s no secret that the key matchup there is a Patriots run D that has an awful lot to prove against Chris Ivory, one of the best running backs in the league — if not the best, and certainly the most bruising. (Nothing against Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s having a nice enough season, and who has had some success throwing the ball in his previous seven meetings with the Patriots, his 1-6 record in those games notwithstanding. But Fitz is not powering the Jets to a win here. It’s Ivory or bust for New Jersey.) New England is going to have to find a way to slow Ivory down early and hope that they can put enough points on the board to force New Jersey to move away from the run game late. What you can’t have if you’re the Patriots is Ivory running the ball up the gut all afternoon. And this, I think is where recent addition Akiem Hicks has to start earning his keep for the Patriots. Hicks has the strength and straight-ahead speed to help New England’s defensive front get after Ivory, disrupt his running lanes and force him outside. (Not that I expect Hicks to do this by himself. He’s got pretty good company in the Pats front four. But this is the piece I think he needs to add to the puzzle.) If that works out, and the Patriots can force the game into Fitz’s hands, they should be able to take advantage and win fairly handily. Otherwise, it’s a tight one that could easily turn on the bounce of the ball.
I like New England to come out ahead in either case. And I certainly think the Patriots have the firepower to cover the nine-point spread at home. But I’m not counting on that happening in a divisional match with a tough opponent. So I’ll go with the Patriots by four.
Minnesota (-2.5) at Detroit
I’m not sure very much has changed since these teams met in week two. But to the extent that change has occurred, none of it would seem to favor the Lions. Let’s figure home field offsets that, though, and go with the same result: Vikings by 10.
Atlanta (-4) at Tennessee
I don’t know about you, but I kinda like Davonta Freeman‘s chances against a Titans run D that allows 130 yards a game and 4.7 a carry. But, you know, that’s just a hunch. Falcons by two TDs.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Washington
Ugh. Why would I — how could I — conceivably care? Home team by three.
New Orleans (+4.5) at Indianapolis
Even Chuck Pagano‘s Colts can’t find a way to lose this one, right? Well, I mean, I guess they could, but they probably won’t. Not at home against a team that’s every bit as disappointing and one-dimensional as they are. Probably. But you never know. Indy by a field goal.
Oakland (+4) at San Diego
With a pair of offenses that can move the ball and a pair of Ds that can’t stop much of anything, I’d set the over/under on punts in this game at one. I think Latavius Murray is the difference here. Raiders come out of a high-scoring affair with a three-point victory.
Dallas (+3.5) at NY Giants
It’s reached the point where I think the only sensible thing for me to do is pick against the Giants when I think they’re likely to win and pick the Giants when I think they’re likely to lose. And the Giants absolutely should win this game. So, yeah, Cowboys by four.
Philadelphia (+3) at Carolina
I’m still trying to figure out how a team can play as poorly as the Eagles did on Monday night and come away with a 20-point victory. I’m not trying real hard, mind you. But I’m trying. And I can tell you this much: It’s not likely to happen again. Certainly not against the Panthers. Carolina by seven.
Baltimore (+7.5) at Arizona
It’s hard to get a win playing a second straight road game, especially for a team that couldn’t get a win playing it’s first straight road game. The Ravens are done. Cardinals by 10.
