Week Five Picks
This is why I don’t gamble. Or, really, this is one of the reasons I don’t gamble.
I finished week four a solid 12-3 picking straight up. Against the spread, I was a dismal 6-9. For the season, I’m now 40-23 (.635) straight up, 27-35-1 (.437) against the spread. And having bet exactly zero dollars, I can feel good about my improving record picking them straight and laugh off my complete failure as a handicapper. And also continue to buy groceries, which is kind of nice.
Just 14 games this week, roughly half of which look like outright gimmes to me. But that comes with a minor hedge. You have to figure at least one of the six remaining undefeated teams is going to take its first loss this week, but I’ll be damned if I can figure out which. I know it won’t be the Panthers, who have the week off. The Packers and Falcons both are heavy favorites at home. The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road. The Broncos, also on the road, are solidly favored. And the Bengals, while favored only by a field goal, are hosting a Seahawks squad that’s traveling across the country and that, more important, has looked shaky this season, including in a narrow Monday night victory at home over the rather unimpressive Detroit Lions. So you tell me: Where’s the upset coming? Because even though I sort of know it’s on the way, I just can’t seem to spot it.
On to the picks. Or, what not to expect.
Indianapolis (-1) at Houston
Here it is at last. The opportunity the red-hot Texans have been waiting for to wrest control of the AFC South from the sinking Colts. And I have little doubt that … um, hold on a minute, would you? … Oh, I see. … Heh. … OK. So it turns out Houston somehow is even more of a mess than Indianapolis. Guess I’ll take the Colts, then. By a field goal. (Which should get Colts fans and the Indianapolis media fired up about the team and talking Super Bowl — I wonder who’ll be first to proclaim that Indy’s “gone 3-0 following their 0-2 start” — just in time for next Sunday night’s visit from the hated Patriots.)
Jacksonville (+3) at Tampa Bay
These are some pretty awful teams. But I suspect the Jaguars are slightly less awful than the Buccaneers. And I expect T.J. Yeldon to have a big day against a highly suspect Tampa Bay run defense. Jaguars by six.
Buffalo (-3) at Tennessee
I’m really tempted to take the home team in the upset here. These teams are fairly evenly matched. I suspect both will spend the season hovering around the point of mediocrity. And by one standard, the smart play in an evenly matched game is to take the home team. But by another, it’s to take the team most likely to benefit from turnovers. I’ve got a hunch this plays out by the latter rule. So I’m taking Buffalo straight up, though I think the margin is likely to be a single point.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore
Venue is all you really need to know about this game. Because no matter where it’s played, this match ends in a narrow victory by the home team. Baltimore. By a field goal.
Washington (+7.5) at Atlanta
It’s hard to run the ball against the Racists defense. But, man, you can throw it all day long. Falcons by two touchdowns.
Chicago (+9.5) at Kansas City
Neither of these teams has an offense you’d describe as efficient. Or a defense you’d describe as effective. But the Bears have experienced considerably more difficulty than the Chiefs in finding the end zone. And while each D has surrendered a league worst 31.3 points per game so far this season, Bears opponents have needed to exert far less effort than Chiefs opponents to achieve their elevated scores. So, sure, I’ll take the Chiefs. But no way am I giving more than a touchdown.
New Orleans (+5) at Philadelphia
The disappointment bowl. I’d say the loser gets to start planning for 2016, but that’s not accurate. The Saints are done win or lose. And the NFC East is such a complete mess that the 1-3 Eagles conceivably could drop this game and get right back in the mix with a win over the Giants next week. But the Eagles aren’t losing this game. (Then again, they probably aren’t beating the Giants next week. So there’s that.) Philly by four.
St. Louis (+9.5) at Green Bay
I think the Rams defense is going to find a way to make this a game. Not a game St. Louis wins, mind you. But more of a game than anyone expects. Packers by six.
Seattle (+3) at Cincinnati
I continue to believe that Andy Dalton is in for a significant statistical correction. Check it out:
And, sure, it could be that Andy’s figured something out. Come into his own. Got better weapons around him. Something. Or maybe this is what he always could have done with better protection. (The fact that he’s tracking just eight sacks on the season has to mean something, right?) On the other hand, it could all relate to the fact that he’s yet to face an opponent with a better than middling pass defense. Just a thought. Of course, the Seahawks may not be in much of a position to change that. Seattle hasn’t got off to a great start against the pass. Notably, four games into a season in which they’ve faced Matthew Stafford, who can’t stop throwing picks this season, and Jimmy Clausen, who never could, the Seahawks have yet to log a single interception. (Maybe Seattle has mysteriously developed an institutional aversion to the very concept of interceptions.) Neither have the Seahawks had much success with sacks. They’ve recorded just six so far in 2015, which ties them for sixth fewest in the league. More telling, I think, is this: In each of the past two seasons, the Seahawks D allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL, 172 in 2013, 186 in 2014. Seattle also finished the last two seasons ranked near top in defensive passer rating, 63.4 in 2013 (first), 80.4 in 2014 (fifth). But the 2015 Seahawks currently are tied for fifth in passing yards per game, 190, only by the grace of Mr. Clausen, who managed just nine completions for 63 yards when the Bears visited Seattle two weeks ago. In their other three games, Seattle has allowed an average of 238 yards through the air, which would qualify them for 15th in the league. And their defensive passer rating stands at 97.8 (21st). That number, too, arguably skews artificially downward as a result of the 61.6 posted by Jimmy C. So, yeah, I’m not anticipating that the Seahawks will be the team to bring Dalton’s numbers back to earth. The Bengals pass D, on the other hand, could make things seriously difficult on Russell Wilson, who’s been taking some very hard hits en route to his league-leading, record-threatening 18 sacks. The Cincy D has been averaging close to three sacks a game, tied for the sixth best pace in the NFL. The Bengals pass defense is hardly stifling — they give up 279 yards a game and have allowed opposing passers a collective rating of 94.9 — but it’s considerably better than the Lions pass D that put Wilson on his back six times and held him to a single TD pass in Seattle Monday night. I guess that’s all a long way of saying that while I still don’t really believe in the Bengals, I certainly believe they’re good enough to hold off the flawed Seahawks in Cincinnati. I’ll take the home team to win it by six.
Arizona (-3) at Detroit
I’m convinced the closeness of the Monday night game told us a lot more about the Seahawks than it did about the Lions. And I’m certain that the Cardinals, who can’t be happy about any aspect of their own performance in week four, will drive that point home by delivering a decisive win over the home team. Arizona by 17.
New England (-9) at Dallas
The Patriots are rested after their early bye week. Tom Brady is doing this:
And the better part of a Cowboys team that probably couldn’t have beat New England at full strength has been sidelined by an unending string of injuries. Also, while Brandon Weeden has put up the best numbers of his career since he stepped in for the injured Tony Romo in the Cowboys’ week two match with the Eagles, he’s done it against some of the league’s least effective pass rushes. (Plus, um, Weeden really didn’t have anywhere to go but up.) The Patriots should present some challenges Weeden and the Dallas offensive line haven’t seen to date. Not sure there’s much more I need to say. Patriots by 14.
Denver (-5.5) at Oakland
If this were about offense, I’d take the Raiders. Strange as it is to say, Oakland brings in a more balanced attack led by the better performing quarterback. But this isn’t about offense. It’s about defense. Denver’s D has been one of the best in the league, which is virtually the sole reason the Broncos are 4-0. Oakland’s D has been … eh, I’ll go with absentee. That becomes a bigger problem here than it’s been thus far this season. The Broncos may put up “only” 24, but that should be a good 11 more than they need to win.
San Francisco (+7) at NY Giants
The Giants may not be a great football team, but they’re better than they’re credited for being. And they have the potential to become increasingly dangerous as the season wears on. The 49ers are an unmitigated disaster. I’d give triple the spread.
Pittsburgh (+3) at San Diego
In which the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers suffer the second of five straight losses (maybe six). San Diego by a touchdown.
