Week Four Picks
Well, week three was decidedly less awful for me than weeks one and two. I actually managed to finish a semi-respectable 11-5 straight up and a very respectable 10-6 against the spread. That success boosted my season results to 28-20 (.583) straight up, 21-26-1 (.448) ATS. Maybe that means I’m finally starting to get a feel for what teams are really about. Stats and trends never start to make sense until after week four, but matchup issues become a bit easier to ID once teams have played a couple of games. Or maybe I just got lucky for a week and the only thing that’s gonna stop me from finishing week four 0-16 is the fact that, with byes beginning, there are only 15 games (OK, well, that and the abject awfulness of the Lions).
Here’s what not to expect.
Baltimore (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
The Ravens’ season ended just before the two-minute warning in week three. But they don’t know it yet. Pair that blissful ignorance with a visit to a quarterbackless opponent, and I think you get a narrow win. No way I’m giving two and a half, though. Baltimore by a point.
NY Jets (-1.5) vs Miami (Wembley Stadium, London)
The only arena on the planet in which the Dolphins could hope to compete with the Jets is the one they agreed to move this game away from. New Jersey by at least four.
Jacksonville (+9.5) at Indianapolis
The good news for the Jaguars, I suppose, is that the Colts aren’t in a position to hang 51 points on anyone. So it will at least look like Jacksonville has taken a step in the right direction. Maybe. At the very least, we’ll get to hear all next week about how the Colts have righted the ship. They won’t have. But it might be week six before that fact is made manifest on the field (and your television). Indy by 17.
Houston (+6.5) at Atlanta
Heading into the season, I thought Houston was ready to make the leap to competitiveness in the AFC South. I was wrong. I mean, the Texans may actually still win the division. But if they do, it won’t be because they got markedly better, but because the Colts got markedly worse. Turns out Houston doesn’t have a quarterback. That’s a problem. The Falcons, meanwhile, may be better than I expected. I thought they could compete in the NFC South, but probably nowhere else. That may yet prove true. But my guess at the moment is that the Falcons, at the very least, could easily win the AFC South. As it is, they appear to stand a solid chance of sweeping that division. Still, I suspect the Texans will make this game appear competitive even if it really isn’t. Atlanta by a field goal.
Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay
Maybe playing at home keeps the Bucs in this one. Maybe. But I don’t think so. I think we’re looking at a very long afternoon for Tampa Bay. Carolina by 11.
NY Giants (+5.5) at Buffalo
In which Eli Manning throws his first interception of the 2015 season. And his second. Bills by a touchdown.
Oakland (-3) at Chicago
Before last Sunday, the Raiders hadn’t won a road game since November of 2013. That adds up to 11 straight road losses. In that light, it’s hard to imagine picking them to win a second straight away from home. Except that the Raiders are much better than anyone expected. And, you know, the Bears are a disaster. Oakland by six.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Quick: Which is the worst team in the NFC East? Yeah, I don’t know either. But until I do, I’m not picking any of them to win back-to-back road games. Washington by a field goal.
Kansas City (+4) at Cincinnati
The beatdown the Chiefs experienced in Green Bay on Monday night was largely attributable to the fact that the Packers are a great football team. But one shouldn’t allow that to mask the fact that the Chiefs we’ve seen on the field this season may be capable of competing in most of their games, but ultimately don’t have what it takes to overcome tough opposition. The trend continues here. Bengals by six.
Cleveland (+7.5) at San Diego
Quarterback play may not mean very much in this game, since there’s likely to be little need for either offense to go to the air. But I’m still taking the team with the quarterback. Chargers by four.
Green Bay (-8.5) at San Francisco
The Niners aren’t going to beat many teams this season. They’re certainly not going to beat the good ones. And the Packers are one of the best. Green Bay by 14.
Minnesota (+6.5) at Denver
I keep reading and hearing about how the Minnesota defense is going to give Peyton Manning the the Broncos O all they can handle. That may be true. The Denver offense hasn’t been particularly impressive so far this season. But I’m not sold on Minnesota’s unbalanced offense, either, particularly not when it has to go up against a D like Denver’s, which isn’t terribly susceptible to the run. I see the Vikings D spending an awful lot of time on the field, and wearing down. Maybe it’s a game into the fourth quarter, but I still see Denver coming out ahead by at least a touchdown.
St. Louis (+7) at Arizona
If the Cardinals offensive line can continue to protect Carson Palmer as well as it has over the team’s first three games, we’ll have to look at Arizona as the most dangerous team in the NFC. This game should present a good test. The Rams aren’t a great team by any stretch, but they know how to get to the passer. St. Louis is tied with New England for the league lead in sacks at 13. I expect the Rams to make things difficult on Palmer, and to make this Arizona’s most competitive game of the season in the process. I’m still expecting a Cards win, and I think they cover. But I’ll be surprised if the difference is greater than high single digits. Let’s just say nine.
Dallas (+4) at New Orleans
Kinda weird to think about what a dog this matchup is, right? And yet … . The Ain’ts finally get a win. The difference is a field goal.
Detroit (+9.5) at Seattle
The Lions are just completely terrible. Seahawks by 17.
