Divisional Round Picks
Ugh. That’s about all I can say about my performance picking the wildcard games. After finishing the regular season on a high note, and coming in at a respectable 170-86 (.664) straight up, and a not-so-respectable but entirely predictable 118-134-4 (.469) against the spread, I took a beating in the first week of the playoffs: 1-3 (.250) straight up and ATS. Ugh. So what happened? I thought too little of Carolina. I thought too much of Pittsburgh. And the coin landed wrong side up on Cincinnati-Indianapolis. So why bother picking this week’s games. I don’t know, really. Because I’m in this deep. That’s part of it. And, you know, given that I rode effectively the same winning percentages through the regular season, you’ve gotta figure I’m in for a correction. That would mean a perfect week straight up, and at least a 2-2, maybe 3-1 finish against the spread. So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice. Or, you know, I guess I could conceivably go 0-4, 0-4 this week. We’ll see. Here’s what not to expect.
Baltimore (+7) at New England
I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but apparently Joe Flacco is a different quarterback in the postseason. He goes from being mostly solid and respectable to completely unbeatable. It’s true. I mean, that’s what I’ve read anyhow. And it’s certainly true that Flacco’s Ravens have won five straight playoff games, including a Super Bowl, and that Flacco looked really good against the Steelers last week. You can’t take any of that away from them. Neither, however, should you leave out that the latest game of the Ravens’ postseason win streak is separated from the other four by a 2013 season in which Baltimore finished 8-8 and missed the tournament. Or that the current iteration of the Ravens doesn’t bear much resemblance to the one that snagged the Lombardi Trophy two years ago. But maybe that doesn’t matter, because the other thing I keep hearing about with this game is that the Ravens have the Patriots number in the playoffs. They’ve won two out of three games against New England in Foxborough during the tenures of Flacco and head coach John Harbaugh. The numbers there are not in dispute. One of those wins was the 2012 AFC Championship, the game that sent Baltimore to Super Bowl XLVII. Flacco had a good day in that game, too. For the other Ravens playoffs win in New England, you have to go back to the Wild Card round of 2009. Flacco wasn’t a Factor that day (he went 4 of 10 for 34 yards — and, yes, he played the whole game). The Ravens were carried by a crushing defense and a running back whose name isn’t suitable for print (not because he beat the Patriots in 2009; because he beat his fiancée in 2014). They don’t have either of those things to lean on in this game. The loss came in the AFC Championship of 2011. Flacco was pretty good in that game, too. In fact, what I keep hearing is that the Ravens should have won that game. Lost it because of a well defended pass in the end zone (it wasn’t a drop; not by any definition; watch the tape) and a missed attempt to tie the score with a field goal in the closing seconds. Neither of those things was Flacco’s fault, of course. But, you know, I’m not big on talk about how a team “could have” or “should have” won a game. They didn’t. That was the Ravens last loss in the playoffs, by the way. But it wasn’t their last loss to the Patriots. That came in December 2013, when the Patriots went into Baltimore and beat the living bejesus out of the Ravens. No one’s been talking about that this week. And fair enough; it has little to no bearing on this meeting between these two teams. Just like the 2009 Wild Card game, the 2011 AFC Championship and the 2012 AFC Championship. But shhhhhhhhhhhh. Here’s what does have some bearing on this game. The 2014 Patriots are a balanced team. The 2014 Ravens are not. The Patriots are better overall on both sides of the ball and they’ve achieved more this season against tougher opposition.
The Ravens run the ball a bit better than the Patriots. And Baltimore has a great defensive front. And while I think the idea that Flacco becomes a great quarterback for five weeks as soon as the ball drops on New Years Eve, it’s also true that he’s not exactly a mouse footman. He’s solid in the regular season, sometimes great, sometimes not so great, rarely awful. And taken as a whole, his postseason career also has been solid. What the Ravens don’t have is much of a defensive secondary. That will prove to be a problem as long as the Patriots offensive line can protect Tom Brady (or, you know, assuming Brady still has a quicker release than Ben Roethlisberger and won’t be standing there expecting he can get the ball to his receivers while pass rushers bounce off of him). Neither have they shown much ability this season to deal with tight ends, something that, um, may present a bit of a problem for them on Saturday. It will also be interesting to see how the Ravens running game fares given that Darrelle Revis‘s ability to take away Baltimore’s first receiving option by himself provides the Patriots with the option of moving a safety up into the box on first down. So here’s what it comes down to. Sure, the Ravens might pull into Foxborough and beat the Patriots again. The Ravens are a damned good team; they can beat any of the eight teams still alive in the playoffs if things go the right way. But it’s not going to be easy, no matter what you might have heard about Flacco’s postseason mojo or the Ravens’ New England magic. And I don’t think it’s likely. I think it’s close through halftime (I won’t be at all surprised if the Ravens have a slight lead a the half), but New England takes control in the third quarter. It should, and probably will, be a better game than this implies, but I’m looking for the Patriots to put the other bookend on the Ravens’ postseason win streak, coming out on top by 10.
Carolina (+11) at Seattle
I’m not sold on the idea that the Seattle Seahawks have become some kind of unstoppable force just in time for the playoffs. The defending champions look like a great team. They may actually be a great team. But I’d like to see them beat a respectable opponent — something they haven’t accomplished since week three (nobody believes me when I say this, but it’s true; see for yourself) — before I buy into the idea that they’re destined to repeat as champs. That said, it remains the case that the Carolina Panthers don’t really belong in the playoffs. Look at this.
And don’t know what you focus on, but here’s what grabs me: Five yards per carry. Five. That tells me Beast Mode is gonna be in feast mode. And that’s about all I need to know. Seahawks by 20.
Dallas (+5.5) at Green Bay
I don’t want to pick this game. Really, I don’t. Not without knowing whether Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing on two legs or one, anyhow. Because here’s the deal: Yeah, the Packers don’t lose at home (except that sometimes in the playoffs they do), but the Cowboys have been great on the road this season. And, yeah, the Green Bay defense has been better against the run down the stretch than they were early in the season, but they’ve struggled throughout against good teams with strong ground games. But I think ultimately the way you keep DeMarco Murray from eating you alive is not with your defense (at least not if you’re the Packers) but with your offense. You pile up the points and force the Cowboys to go away from the run in order to keep up. Doing that also put you in a position to take advantage of the critical mistake Tony Romo is destined to make at some point in this postseason. And that strategy should be one Green Bay can execute, even in the face of a very good Dallas D, as long as Rodgers is up to the task. But that’s the question. It’s hard to move on a bad calf. And the more you do it, the harder it gets. So my guess is, the Cowboys, though pass rush is not the strength of their D, are going to look for ways to force Rodgers out of the pocket and see what happens as the game wears on. If Rodgers holds up, the Packers come out ahead by at least a field goal. If he doesn’t, it could be a tough day for the fans at Lambeau. I’m not at all confident in this, but given that the injury has been reported as a tear as well as a strain, I’m going to assume his mobility is going to be a problem. I’m holding my breath and taking Dallas to win it by something like four.
Indianapolis (+7) at Denver
This is a weird thing to say, but the way you beat the Denver Broncos in 2014 is that you take away the run and force Peyton Manning to throw the ball. The Colts simply don’t have the ability to do that. And even if they find a way, it will leave them vulnerable enough that Manning, even in the thick of duck season, will be able to pick their secondary apart. I see exactly one way the Colts can win this game and it’s that Andrew Luck has a near-perfect day. That, plus a few good bounces, could do the job. But you can’t count on either of those things happening. Not with Luck’s iffy track record against top competition. And not when the ball is bouncing on someone else’s field. Which is to say, not in this game. Denver by six.
