Wild Card Picks
Here’s where things get messed up. Or, you know, more messed up. Picking straight up worked out OK for me in the regular season. With an 11-5 finish in week 17, I came in at 170-86 (.664) for the year. That ain’t so bad. Against the spread, on the other hand … . I went 9-7 in the final weekend of the season, which is about as good as I’ve even done. That lifted my season record to a truly laughable 118-134-4 (.469). So I should expect to go maybe 3-1 straight up, 1-3 or 2-2 against the spread in the wild card games, right? Except I won’t. Wild card weekend is always brutal for me. Because there are always upsets. Sometimes three of them. But I can never tell where they’re coming from. So here we go. Here’s what really, really not to expect this weekend.
Arizona (+6.5) at Carolina
This game shouldn’t be as tough to pick as it is. Carolina has no business in the postseason. Not only did the Panthers “win” the awful NFC South with a losing record (7-8-1), but they haven’t logged a victory over a respectable opponent since they topped the Lions back in week two. Carolina’s four-game win streak to end the season came via a game each against the rest of their deplorable division plus a game against a Cleveland Browns squad that had packed it in for the year. Prior to that “strong finish” the Panthers were 3-8-1 and had been winless since week five. So there are your NFC South champs. If the visiting Cardinals weren’t one injury away from having to line up Curly Joe Derita behind center, it would make picking this game incredibly easy. But the fact is, Arizona’s third-sting quarterback Ryan Lindley hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. And one has to wonder how far a defense, however good, and a running back who was on the practice squad a month ago can possibly carry a team. It’s fun to think the Cardinals can keep finding ways to make it work, but the reality is the kind of injury-plagued season Arizona has experienced inevitably and invariably catches up with a team. The question isn’t whether the Cardinals will bow out of the tournament, but when. I suppose when it comes down to it, I have to give the Cardinals another week. I need to pick a winner in this match, and my gut says you take the team that’s got it done with tough play and great coaching over the team that’s fallen ass backward into the least impressive slot in the playoffs. Makes sense, right? Arizona by a field goal.
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are going to need to get Le’Veon Bell back on the field at some point if they’re going to have any chance of advancing deep into the playoffs, but I think they’ll be OK without him this week. Not sure why, but I’ve got this weird hunch Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore through the air. I expect to see a high-scoring affair with a number of lead changes, but I also expect to see the Steelers come out on top. By at least four.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Indianapolis
I’ve been trying all week, without much success, to figure out which of these two teams I think less of. Both teams are paper tigers that have spent their seasons feasting on week opponents while stumbling when faced with stout opposition. The Colts went 2-3 in regular season games against playoff opponents, surrendering 27.6 points a game with a defensive passer rating of 98.3. The Bengals went 3-4-1 against playoff teams in the regular season, giving up 30.5 points a game. They were better than Indy against the pass, but horrifically bad against the run, allowing 130.8 yards per game and 10 rushing TDs in their eight games against contenders. And neither Andrew Luck nor Andy Dalton performed well enough consistently enough in the tough games to make me believe either can carry a team to a conference championship, let alone a Super Bowl. Honestly, I’m not sure either of them would have beat Baltimore or Pittsburgh this week. But they didn’t get the Ravens or Steelers; they got each other. And since it’s the playoffs, one of these teams literally has to win. I think that team is Cincinnati. I think the Bengals have enough of a pass D to slow down the Colts’ air attack and an offense that’s balanced enough to keep the Indianapolis defense on its heels. Unlike these teams’ regular season meeting, back in week seven, I think this one will be close throughout. And unlike that earlier match, I think this one goes to the visitor. Bengals by a point.
Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas
You can spend a lot of time, and many people have, talking about what this game — this postseason, really — means for Tony Romo. And fair enough, I suppose. If Romo is ever going to be anything more than a regular season stats machine who chokes in the playoffs, he’s, you know, going to need to have some success in the playoffs. But I don’t think this game is about Tony Romo any more than I think this Cowboys season has been about Tony Romo. This game, for Dallas, is about DeMarco Murray. For Detroit, it’s about whether the league’s best run D can hold strong against Murray. If the Lions can do that, if they can make the Cowboys offense one dimensional, they’ll give themselves a shot at an upset. But not enough of a shot, I think. I suspect Detroit will make this one tough on Dallas, but will come up just short. Cowboys by three.
