Week Eleven Picks
And there goes my run of luck. Finished week 10 with an 8-5 record straight up, 9-4 against the spread (which actually isn’t half bad). For the season, I’m 98-49 straight up, 71-74-2 against the spread. Things can only get worse. Here’s what not to expect in week eleven.
Buffalo (+5.5) at Miami
When you’ve got the better team (even if it isn’t by much) playing at home on a short week … well, that’s about all you need to know. Except that it’s never a great idea to give more than a field goal in a fairly evenly matched divisional game. I like Miami to win, but not by more than three.
Houston (+3) at Cleveland
I don’t want to point out that this game features two former Tom Brady backups as its starting quarterbacks. But I’m doing it anyhow because I think if I don’t, it could look like I’m the only football fan in America who doesn’t know it. But the thing is, this game isn’t really about Ryan Mallett vs. Brian Hoyer. Or at least I don’t think it is. I have this notion that it’s about a Texans squad that’s trying to figure out how to map a path forward (by which I mean they’re preparing for next season) visiting a Browns squad that knows where it’s trying to go (hell, it’s halfway there), and that appears, for a change, to have a clear vision for how to get there. This is probably a tighter matchup than it ought to be under those circumstances. But it’s also the kind of game the Browns have to win if they’re going to stay in the four-way race for the AFC North title. That should keep Cleveland focused. Home field will do the rest. Browns by four.
Minnesota (+3) at Chicago
I don’t have any kind of stake in this game, but I’m kind of rooting for the Vikings, mostly in the spirit of Flounder scattering 10,000 marbles across the parade route. I just think it could be fun to watch the resulting chaos. Not sure I’m going to realize my perverse pleasure, though. It’s just hard to imagine the Bears failing to bounce back and grab a largely meaningless win here. But let’s figure the difference is a single point.
Seattle (+1.5) at Kansas City
I could come up with plenty of reasons for picking either of these 6-3 teams. In the end, though, I think this comes down to which defense can more effectively stop the opposing offense’s running game. And I think that D is Seattle’s. So I’m taking the Seahawks. By three.
Atlanta (+1.5) at Carolina
I started trying to figure out which of these teams is worse. Turns out it’s both of them. So just give my the home team by a field goal. Is that OK?
Cincinnati (+7) at New Orleans
Who dat? Who dey? Tippi Tippi Dayday. There’s no way the Saints lose a second straight home game, right? I mean, right? Except, you know what? I think there kinda is. Bengals by three.
Tampa Bay (+7) at Washington
There might be three teams in the NFL right now that I think could conceivably lose to the Racists. And here comes one of ’em. Washington by 10.
Denver (-9.5) at St. Louis
Yes, I’m sure starting Shaun Hill will make all the difference in the world for the Rams. Like, where St. Louis was probably going to lose by 17 with Austin Davis taking snaps, now they’ll probably only lose by like … what? Let’s say, I don’t know, 17?
San Francisco (-4) at NY Giants
I’m not sure that an overtime victory over the floundering Saints qualifies the 49ers as a great team, or a postseason-bound team, or whatever it may be. But neither do I have any reason to believe that it requires a great (or whatever) team to notch a victory over the foundering Giants. San Francisco by a touchdown.
Oakland (+10) at San Diego
The Chargers have lost three in a row and are desperate to get off the schneid. The Raiders have lost 16 in a row (nine this season, seven last) and are football’s embodiment of despair. San Diego by 37.
Detroit (+2) at Arizona
This isn’t about Drew Stanton. Really, it isn’t. The Cardinals were OK with Stanton starting behind center earlier in the season. I’m sure they’ll be OK now. For the rest of the regular season, anyhow. After that, mmmmmm, maybe not so much. This is about whether the Lions can hold onto the ball against a Cardinals D that leads the league in interceptions. And while Matthew Stafford isn’t the most pick-prone quarterback in the NFL, he throws the ball away often enough for me to feel fairly confident he’ll commit a costly error in Glendale. Cardinals by a field goal.
Philadelphia (+5.5) at Green Bay
The over/under on punts in this game is one, and I’m betting the under. OK, I totally made that up, but you get the point. Not much defense being played in this one. Except by the one or two Green Bay defensive backs who’ll haul in interceptions of passes Mark Sanchez plants right in their chests. Otherwise, everyone scores on every possession. And, as a result, turnovers decide the outcome. Packers by a touchdown.
New England (+3) at Indianapolis
I keep hearing about how these teams are evenly matched. And that appears to be the case. Certainly it is if you look at points scored and points allowed. The Colts put up a point a game more than the Patriots; and the Colts allow a point and a half a game more than the Patriots. It all comes out looking pretty even. And even when you start to pull things apart a bit, you still mostly land at even. The Patriots are maybe a bit more balanced than the Colts on offense, but not by enough that it’s worth looking at closely. (You could start to draw a line between New England’s first four and last five games if you wanted, but then you’d have to get into the fact that Indianapolis also started slow. Might reveal something, but you’d have to sort through an awful mess to find it.) The Colts offense relies more on the pass than the Patriots offense does, which maybe means the fact that the Patriots have the stronger pass D (New England comes out +5.3 in passer rating differential) is a big advantage. But that leaves out the fact that Indy’s more than capable of running the ball, and New England hasn’t been great at stopping the run. So where’s the point of differentiation? Well, maybe it comes from the fact that a Colts pass D that doesn’t hold up so well in the middle of the field has to figure out how to deal with the best tight end in football. That could be something. Or not. Indy’s a good team, and well coached. They may have solved that matchup issue. What I don’t think the Colts can solve, because I’m not sure it’s solvable, is their quarterback’s penchant for throwing picks. Andrew Luck comes into this game with nine interceptions on the season. That’s tied for sixth most in the NFL (though it’s also just one behind second). The Patriots D has 10 picks so far this season, which is tied for seventh most in the league. Those aren’t a great combination of factors for the Colts, particularly given that the Patriots offense tends to score enough to force opponents to the air. And that, rather than the tight end factor, is where I’m going to hang my hat. I think this game comes down to turnovers (as games between relatively evenly matched teams) and I think New England wins that battle and the game. Patriots by a touchdown.
Pittsburgh (-6) at Tennessee
I think the Steelers are just way too uneven a team to be considered a real playoff contender. This week. Which means that by this time next week, I’ll have them figured as the most dangerous team in the NFL. Pittsburgh by 14.
