Week Seven Picks
Yet another decent finish for me in week six. I went 12-3 straight up, 8-7 against the spread. For the season, that makes me 60-31 and 42-47-2. I like the straight up numbers better, obviously. But since I don’t put real money on these game, I’ll survive being sub-.500 against the spread. All that said, I have to be in line to take a beating this week. Here’s what not to expect.
NY Jets (+9.5) at New England
If you go by Thursday night blowout standard, you kind of have to give the points in this one. Right? Because, seriously, the Jets may be better than we realize. The Jets may be due for a win. And the Jets do have a habit of playing the Patriots tough (particularly in their first meeting of a given season). But the Jets aren’t a team that’s going to end up on the right side of many blowouts. Being one-dimensional on both sides of the ball and committing turnovers at a rate of nearly two per game doesn’t position you to blow out opponents. In fact, what it positions you for is a season in which a 1-5 start turns out to be the least of your worries. But I wasn’t sure it made sense to expect a blowout every Thursday night even before Colts-Texans a week ago. And even if I were inclined to gamble (which I’m not), I hope I’d be smarter than to risk my money on an inherently unsustainable trend. Does that mean I expect this game not to be a blowout? Hardly. Assuming the weather doesn’t get in the way, a 38-10 result wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Two fundamental reasons for that. First, the Jets offense is … well, the thing about the Jets is that they don’t really seem to have an offense. They score 16 points a game, which is less than all but the winless Raiders and Jaguars. Their pass offense is the least productive in the league. And their rushing offense, while better, is middle of the pack. With that kind of output, a team needs its defense to keep it in games. Thing is, for all of the Jets’ reputed ability to get to the quarterback (a relatively simple reputation to achieve when you blitz all the time, even if it doesn’t amount to much more than a shell game), their defensive passer rating is 109.2, third worst in the league. A high sack total (the Jets have 19 sacks on the season, which ties them with, ahem, the Bills for second in the league) paired with a crazy high defensive passer rating points to a unit that’s gambling — and gambling is a desperate tactic that mostly results in losing. Worse still for New Jersey is that the guy on the other side of the line is Tom Brady, who has a knack for turning any weakness on the part of your pass D into a major problem. I don’t think the Jets can slow down the Patriots offense — at least not for very long. And that means the Jets are going to find themselves at some point in a situation where they have to rely on Geno Smith to make things happen against a New England pass D that’s considerably better than many realize (84.3 defensive passer rating, ninth in the league; 15 sacks, tied for seventh; seven interceptions, tied for fifth … ). That pits a guy whose picks total, seven, is tied for second worst in the league against a defense that’s tied for fifth most with, oddly enough, seven. Not hard to predict how that turns out, is it? And that, not Thursday night magic, is what leads to a blowout. I like the Jets to come out fired up and keep things close into the second quarter. After that, though, it gets ugly. And the Patriots come out on top by no less than 17.
Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis
Forget Andrew Luck (I mean, not all together, just for the moment); this game’s about Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. It’s also about a six-point Colts victory.
Tennessee (+5.5) at Washington
The Racists are probably a slightly better team than the Titans, but not by enough. Not for me, anyhow. Until they figure out how to hold on to the ball, I’m picking against Washington every week. Kirk Cousins throws a pair of picks and Tennessee comes out ahead by a field goal.
Miami (+3.5) at Chicago
For a second straight week, the Dolphins are good enough to pose a threat to an NFC North opponent, but not quite good enough to pull off the upset. Bears by a field goal.
Cleveland (-5) at Jacksonville
Yes, I believe something real is happening in Cleveland. Yes, I believe the Browns have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, and maybe even an AFC North title. But, no, I don’t believe that matters much this week. Because with the Buccaneers on a bye, the title of best team in the NFL slides to whoever is playing the Jaguars. Browns by 20.
Seattle (-7) at St. Louis
I don’t think it would be wise to predict a two-game slide for the defending champs even if they were playing a good team. And they’re not. Seahawks by two touchdowns.
Carolina (+7) at Green Bay
I keep wondering if any team is going to step up and play like they want to win the NFC South. It’s not going to be the Panthers. Not this week anyhow. In a shootout, the Packers come out ahead by six.
Atlanta (+7) at Baltimore
I keep wondering if any team is going to step up and play like they want to win the NFC South. It’s not going to be the Falcons. Not this week anyhow. Both of these teams have plenty of offense. Only one of them has a defense. That’s the difference. Ravens by 10.
New Orleans (+2.5) at Detroit
I keep wondering if any team is going to step up and play like they want to win the NFC South. It might yet end up being the Saints. But not this week. The Lions win the turnover battle to the tune of +3 and the game to the tune of a touchdown.
Minnesota (+5.5) at Buffalo
Teddy Bridgewater took eight sacks and three three picks last week against the Lions. The good news for Bridgewater and the Vikings, I suppose, is that nothing that happens this week could possibly be as bad as that. I mean, right? Right? Bills by 13.
Kansas City (+4) at San Diego
The Chargers appear to be on the road to Glendale. They may not get there, but it won’t be for taking their foot off the gas. Not in the first of a pair of critical divisional games, anyhow. Chargers by six.
NY Giants (+6.5) at Dallas
The Giants are winning this game. I guarantee it. Why? Because there’s absolutely no reason to expect that the Giants can win, or that the Cowboys should lose. And that’s how it goes with both of these teams. Not that you can hang your hat on that kind of nonsense, of course. So I’ll predict what I think should happen rather than what my gut tells me will happen. And what should happen is a Dallas victory, probably by something like four.
Arizona (-3.5) at Oakland
Are the Raiders getting better under Tony Sparano? Who knows? I mean, it’s not like they were likely to get any worse. Cardinals by at least a touchdown.
San Francisco (+6.5) at Denver
I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but Peyton Manning is closing in on a big career moment. Manning, the career leader among active players, needs to throw just four more interceptions to tie his boss, John Elway, for fourteenth most all time. Not sure he’ll get there in this game, though. Broncos by a field goal.
Houston (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Make it two straight losses for the Steelers. Texans pound out a win, 17-13.
