Week Six Picks
I’m due for a down week. I think. I mean, it’s not like I crushed it in week five, but I did a whole lot better than I had in week four. So history suggests … . I went 10-5 straight up, 8-7 against the spread last week. On the season, I’m 48-28 straight up and 34-40-2 against the spread so far this season. Let’s see what I can do to pull the rug out from under myself. Here’s what not to expect.
Indianapolis (-3) at Houston
In which the Colts officially put their slow start in the rearview by taking control of the AFC South. I’m hopeful we won’t see yet another complete mess of a Thursday night game. Seems like Houston should be able to slow the game down enough to keep the Indy offense from completely running away with it. But the Colts are going to get the ball and when they do, they’re going to find ways to score. Indianapolis should have things under control by late in the third quarter. Colts by nine.
Denver (-9.5) at NY Jets
You think the Jets defense’s inability to stop the pass might be a problem in this game? What about the Jets’ anemic offense? Yeah, so do I. Denver by 20.
Pittsburgh (+2) at Cleveland
The Browns aren’t a great football team. But they’re a good one. They know how to win. And, most important, they take great care of the ball. That should be enough. Browns by a field goal.
Jacksonville (+5.5) at Tennessee
The Titans have to be smarting — and preparing to play a full 60 minutes this week. I mean, right? Tennessee by three interceptions, but still somehow only six points.
Chicago (+3) at Atlanta
Both of these perplexing teams come into this game riding a two-game losing streak. Each has at least one loss this season that should have been a win. It’s possible one of them wakes up as the season moves on but for the moment, both appear to have settled into mediocrity. So which one to you pick? Well, the Falcons are back at home after a pair of tough road games while the Bears are on the road for a second straight week. So I’m going to hang my hat on that. Atlanta by four.
Green Bay (-3.5) at Miami
The Dolphins haven’t beaten a good team since week one, which is to say they haven’t beaten a good team playing good football yet this season. I don’t see any reason to expect a reversal of that trend this week. Packers by a touchdown.
Detroit (-1.5) at Minnesota
The Vikings allowed just six points to the Rams in week one. Since then, they’ve given up an average of 30 points a game. And still, I recommend betting the under. The Lions come out ahead by a single point in a painfully low scoring affair.
Carolina (+7) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati does to Carolina what New England did to Cincinnati. Bengals by 17.
New England (-3) at Buffalo
It’ll be interesting to see how New England approaches this game offensively. The Bills are pretty stout against the run, but with the offensive line still not fully stabilized, the Patriots can’t afford to rely solely on Tom Brady‘s arm. I suspect we’ll see the Patriots lean heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright for a second straight week, forcing the Bills linebackers into coverage, which in turn will open up running lanes. (It will also have the bonus effect of exposing loudmouth ex-Pat Brandon Spikes for the one-dimensional fraud he has always been.) Whatever the game plan, assuming they don’t kill themselves with penalties, the Patriots should be able to come out of this game with a second straight win. Let’s say by a touchdown.
Baltimore (-3) at Tampa Bay
I don’t see Baltimore giving away a game to Tampa Bay like Pittsburgh did. Neither do I see the Ravens allowing the Buccaneers to give them the kind of scare the Bucs gave the Saints. I think the Ravens ruin the Bucs’ homecoming by making them look like the last place team they are. Baltimore by 14.
San Diego (-7) at Oakland
Burying a football is a nice symbolic gesture and all. Doesn’t quite compare, though, with burying a divisional opponent, which is what the Chargers are about to do. San Diego by 20.
Dallas (+8) at Seattle
This week, for a change, I actually don’t think Tony Romo will find a way to lose a game for the Cowboys. Mostly because I don’t think he’ll have to. Dallas is completely outclassed. Seattle by two touchdowns.
Washington (+3.5) at Arizona
The Racists are not the Broncos. Arizona by seven.
NY Giants (+2.5) at Philadelphia
Part of me truly believes that this is where the Eagles’ endless flirtation with disaster catches up with them. But another part of me just isn’t sold on the Giants. If New Jersey can pull of a road upset here then I’ll believe. Until that happens, I’m taking the home team to win by the default three.
San Francisco (-3.5) at St. Louis
If the Rams could hold on to the ball, they might be able to present a challenge to the 49ers. But they can’t. San Francisco by 10.
