Week Five Picks
I continue to run hot and cold picking straight up, cold and really, really cold against the spread. Big shock there. In week four, I was cold and colder, which I’m attributing to the fact that in thirteen games, six underdogs came out on top straight up. That includes outright wins by a pair of teams that were getting six or more points. So, you know, there’s my excuse of the week. I finished 7-6 straight up, 5-8 against the spread. That brings me to 38-23 straight up and 26-33-2 against the spread so far this season. Let’s see if I can get any colder this week. Here’s what not to expect.
Minnesota (+8.5) at Green Bay
I don’t think it matters much whether Minnesota’s starting quarterback is the rookie who’s barely practiced during a short week or the former starter who had fallen to third on the depth chart before injuries started to take their toll. The Vikings don’t have anything resembling the defense it would take to go into Green Bay and slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers O. If the Vikings were playing at home and had a good option at QB, I might take them to win a shootout. Playing on the road without one, I think Minnesota loses by at least 10.
Chicago (+2.5) at Carolina
Big day for Matt Forte. Chicago by six.
Cleveland (+2) at Tennessee
One of these teams is going to take advantage of the others lackluster defense. Smart money says it’s the one that can produce some offense and that doesn’t turn the ball over (zero giveaways on the season by the Browns). Cleveland by four.
St. Louis (+7) at Philadelphia
You know all that stuff I’ve been saying about how the habit of allowing opponents to build leads early was bound to bite the Eagles in the ass eventually? I take it all back. Apparently, for Philadelphia the opposite of allowing opponents to build leads early isn’t controlling a game; it’s allowing opponents to take the lead late. That’s worse. So I guess this week, I’ll look for the Rams to get out to a 10-0 lead only to end up losing 31-10.
Atlanta (+4) at NY Giants
The Falcons are on the road for the second straight week. And they’re playing a team that, as it turns out, isn’t actually bad. Giants by a field goal.
Tampa Bay (+10) at New Orleans
I think we all know the Buccaneers aren’t nearly as good as the Steelers made them look last week. And, evidence to the contrary notwithstanding, I haven’t quite come around to believing that the Saints are as bad as the Cowboys made them look on Sunday night. New Orleans by 13.
Houston (+6) at Dallas
The smart pick here is the home team. I guess. But something tells me the Texans keep it close and Tony Romo finds a way to lose in the fourth quarter. Houston by a point.
Buffalo (+7) at Detroit
The Bills are sinking. And playing a second straight on the road. Lions by four.
Baltimore (+3.5) at Indianapolis
If this game were being played in Baltimore, I’d take the Ravens, who would be favored, to win and the Colts to barely cover. But it isn’t. So I’ll go exactly the other way. Colts by a field goal.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Jacksonville
Poor Jaguars. They couldn’t beat the Steelers if the Steelers weren’t angry. And the Steelers are angry. Pittsburgh by … I don’t know a lot. More than six and a half, that’s for sure.
Arizona (+7) at Denver
This is a better matchup than the line makes it appear, and I won’t be surprised at all if the Cardinals find a way to make life difficult on Peyton Manning and give the Broncos a scare. What Arizona won’t give Denver, however, is a loss. Broncos by four.
Kansas City (+6) at San Francisco
Andy Reid’s current team isn’t going to make the kinds of stupid mistakes in San Francisco that his former team made last weekend. That’s the difference. Kansas City pulls off the upset with a three-point win.
NY Jets (+6.5) at San Diego
The Chargers have been playing like a team on its way to the postseason. The Jets have been playing like a team on its way to a coaching change. San Diego by 17.
Cincinnati (-1) at New England
The Bengals may or may not be the best team in the AFC. They’re certainly a team that has been playing flawless football thus far in 2014. The Patriots may yet emerge as the best team in the AFC East. But what they’ve been to date is a team playing the most heavily flawed football New England fans have seen in roughly 20 years. That doesn’t add up to great odds for the home team in week five. Bengals by a touchdown.
Seattle (-7) at Washington
A second straight Monday night blowout. How exciting. Seahawks by 21 minimum.
