Week Four Picks
My pendulum season continued in week three, this time swinging in my direction. I finished 11-5 straight up, 9-7 against the spread. That brings me to 31-17 straight up and 21-25-2 against the spread so far this season. And here we go back the other way. Here’s what not to expect.
NY Giants (+3.5) at Washington
The Racists are at home. And unlike the Giants, they seem to be able to hold onto the ball at least some of the time. So, sure, sign me up. Washington by six.
Oakland (+3.5) vs Miami at Wembley Stadium, London
In Oakland, the Raiders would win this game. In Miami, not following a trip to New England, the Raiders still might win this game. In London, and playing on the road for the second straight week, the Raiders don’t win this game. Which is to say they lose it. Not that the Dolphins win, mind you. The Raiders, who should win, lose. Miami by a field goal.
Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago
Am I really thinking that the Bears win a shootout with the Packers? Can it be possible that I’ve found myself living in a world where that’s a distinct possibility? Because, you know, that’s just way too weird. But true. Chicago by four. Late.
Buffalo (+3) at Houston
I don’t think these teams could be more evenly matched. So I’m going with the home team, by exactly the margin the oddsmakers suggest.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Indianapolis
I’m starting to think I was terribly, terribly wrong about the Titans being a better team than anyone thought. And even though the Colts are probably a slightly worse team than everyone thought, it’s not by enough that I expect them to lose to a division opponent that doesn’t seem to have an offense. Indy by 14.
Carolina (+3.5) at Baltimore
Steve Smith may be right about the blood and guts thing. But I sort of suspect they’ll be his. All the same, Baltimore wins by a good, solid 10 points.
Detroit (-1.5) at NY Jets
Week three’s visiting NFC team beat the Jets. Week four’s is going to torch them. Lions by 15.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
And in a shocking development, the Buccaneers are absolutely dreadful. Steelers by 14.
Jacksonville (+13) at San Diego
Starting quarterback getting sacked all over the field? Why not throw in the rookie? That strategy usually works out well, right? Chargers by no less than three touchdowns.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at San Francisco
The 49ers backs are against the wall. The Eagles have flirted with a loss in every game of this season. I think the visitors’ second half heroics come up short here, though maybe just short. San Francisco by a point.
Atlanta (-3) at Minnesota
The Vikings offense may actually break out of single digits for the first time since week one. Not that it will make a difference. Falcons have more offensive firepower than the Vikings can hope to keep up with. Atlanta by nine.
New Orleans (-3) at Dallas
In New Orleans, the Saints win this one by 14. In Dallas, it’s probably more like six.
New England (-3.5) at Kansas City
I don’t care how banged up the Chiefs defense is, they’re going to have a chance to knock Tom Brady around if the Patriots don’t figure out how to shore up their offensive line — or commit to the run early to keep the Kansas City pass rush honest. If New England plays smart, this may be the game where they start to right the ship. If they keep going down the path they’ve been walking so far this season, their fall to 2-2 will likely lock in the tone for a frustrating season. I think they start to get it figured out. Patriots by a field goal.
