Week Three Picks
As predicted, my decent week one performance did little more than set up a major fall in week two. I finished the week 8-8 straight up, 5-11 against the spread. (Good thing I don’t risk real money on this stuff.) That makes me 20-12 straight up and 12-18-2 against the spread on the season. Let’s see how much worse it can get. Here’s what not to expect this week.
Tampa Bay (+6) at Atlanta
The Bucs got their season off to a great start by dropping a pair of games on their own field. They’re not following that by getting a win in someone else’s building. Unless something really strange happens, the Falcons win this one by at least a touchdown.
San Diego (+2.5) at Buffalo
The Chargers are almost certainly the better team in this matchup. But it’s a long trip from San Diego to Buffalo. Maybe not as long as it might be in December. But long just the same. Bills by a point.
Dallas (-1) at St. Louis
Ugh. Really? Cowboys, I guess. Let’s say by two (and hope that Dallas forces a safety and that there’s no other scoring, because a 2-0 final score is about the only thing that could possibly make this game even remotely interesting).
Washington (+6.5) at Philadelphia
The Eagles may actually show up in the first half this week. Just, you know, to keep the rest of the league guessing. Philadelphia by 10.
Houston (-2) at NY Giants
I expect to start hearing Giants fans talk about the “final nail in the Coughlin” any minute now. Thing is, this time they might be right. I don’t see the Giants turning it around this season. So I’m thinking new coach in 2015 followed by a new quarterback in 2016. The Texans aren’t a great football team, but they’ve been playing good football. The Giants have not. Houston by a field goal.
Minnesota (+10) at New Orleans
The Saints can’t add a loss in their home opener to the two road losses they suffered to start this season and hope to turn things around. They can’t. And they won’t. The Vikings simply don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. New Orleans by 14.
Tennessee (+7) at Cincinnati
I still think the Titans are a better team than they’re likely to get credit for being. But the Bengals are better still. On both sides of the ball, no less. That, plus home field, is a recipe for a blowout. Cincinnati by 17.
Baltimore (-1.5) at Cleveland
Show me a team that knows how to take care of the ball and I’ll show you a team that knows how to win football games. And in this match that team, somehow, is the Browns. Cleveland by a field goal.
Green Bay (+2.5) at Detroit
The Lions are slightly more balanced. And the Lions are at home. So, yeah, I’ll take the Lions. By four.
Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville
Seven? Are you kidding? I mean, yes, I know the Colts are 0-2 and that they’ve developed a really dangerous habit of falling apart late in games. But, um, the Jaguars, in two games, have given up 48 more points than they’ve scored. 48. That’s not just a league worst differential, it’s half again the Giants’ second-worst 32. That kind of thing doesn’t happen without a whole array of reasons. Indianapolis by 24.
Oakland (+14) at New England
The Raiders have given up 400 yards on the ground over two games. You think Tom Brady‘s going to be able to sell play action? (I mean, assuming he ever actually needs to throw the ball.) New England by 27.
San Francisco (-3) at Arizona
The Cardinals actually appear to have a chance to steal the NFC West. But not if they can’t beat division opponents on their own field. And, at least for this week, that should be enough. Arizona by three.
Denver (+5) at Seattle
No, I don’t think we’ll see 43-8 again. (Though, man, would that be fun.) 27-24 seems a more likely possibility. So let’s go with that. Seattle by a field goal.
Kansas City (+4) at Miami
The Dolphins look to me like a team that goes 7-1 at home, 2-6 on the road. This one’s in Miami. And it’s not the one they lose. Dolphins by 10.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Carolina
It’s a weird thing to say, but the Steelers don’t have enough defense to keep them in this game. Panthers by a touchdown.
Chicago (+2.5) at NY Jets
The Jets defense may be great against the run. Or it may just be that the Jets haven’t faced an opponent with a running game. The don’t this week, either. And once again it won’t matter. Chicago wins this one through the air. Bears by three.
