Week Two Picks
I did OK in week one: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread. I’ll take it. Of course, it just means I’m due to take a beating in week two. Here’s what not to expect.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Baltimore
Playing a division opponent with four days preparation is tough, but it’s something both of these teams have had to deal with. Only one of them, though, has had to try to get the work done with a major controversy swirling around its locker room and front offices. And it’s not like the Ravens were looking so great heading into this week. I think Baltimore is headed for a second straight home loss within the AFC North. Can’t imagine a more difficult hole to be in early in a season. Steelers by a touchdown.
Detroit (+2.5) at Carolina
I’m not sure I learned anything about either of these teams in their weak one wins. (Yes, I meant to spell weak that way. I’ll leave it to you to figure out what I’m trying to say about the competition Carolina and Detroit faced.) I guess it’s good news for the Panthers that Cam Newton is ready to play. But if Carolina has solved the O line problems that led to Newton’s rib injury in the first place, I haven’t heard about it. Lions by four.
Miami (-1) at Buffalo
I haven’t seen enough to know which of these teams is better. The Dolphins sure did look impressive dominating the Patriots last weekend. But I don’t know if they can get that show to travel outside of the South Florida climate. Likewise, the Bills’ road victory over the Bears was a very nice showing. But I can’t tell you based on that how the Bills will respond when they face a team with a real defense. I’m taking the home team, because that’s what you do when you’re unsure about how a divisional game is going to turn out. Buffalo by a field goal.
Jacksonville (+6) at Washington
Can the Jaguars hold onto a lead? Can the Racists hold onto the ball? The answers to these and other exciting questions lies … well, somewhere. But it ain’t here. Washington by four. (That’s a hedge. You can see that, right?)
Dallas (+3.5) at Tennessee
The Titans are better than many football fans realize. The Cowboys are worse than Jerry Jones realizes. Tennessee by six.
Arizona (-1.5) at NY Giants
The bad news for Giants fans is that it’s only week two. It’s going to be a long, long season in New Jersey. Cardinals by a touchdown.
New England (-3) at Minnesota
Two things Patriots fans need to know about this game: First, it could be another loss. Playing a second straight road game is never easy. Harder still when you’ve just surrendered 191 yards on the ground and you’ve got to figure out how to stop Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Second, if it does result in 0-2, the season isn’t over, the Patriots don’t need to fire their coach and trade their quarterback; it’s just a rough start on the road. Teams have recovered from worse. Two things Vikings fans need to know about this game: First, the Patriots aren’t likely to repeat the kinds of mistakes that produced their meltdown in the Miami heat last weekend. Second, Matt Cassel isn’t Tom Brady. And, more important, neither is Austin Davis. Patriots by nine.
New Orleans (-6.5) at Cleveland
As above, even at the very start of a season, playing a second straight road game is no easy matter. So, you know, maybe the Saints don’t put this one away until late in the second quarter. New Orleans by 17.
Atlanta (+5) at Cincinnati
You know what it means when you put up 568 yards of total offense and 37 points in your home opener and still only manage to win by way of a long field goal late in regulation and a turnover by your opponent on the second play of overtime? It means you don’t have much of a defense. And it means you may be in trouble when you have to travel to face a team that does. Bengals by seven.
St. Louis (+5) at Tampa Bay
Oh, let’s give this one to the Bucs. I mean, they’re at home and everything, right. Tampa Bay by three.
Seattle (-5.5) at San Diego
Seems to me homefield in this game is effectively negated by the fact that the Seahawks have had 10 days to rest after a dominating performance in the season opener while the Chargers are playing on short rest after a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals on Monday Night. Well, that and the fact that the Seahawks are easily the better team. Seattle by ten.
Houston (-3) at Oakland
In which the Texans match their 2013 win total after just two weeks of play. Houston by four.
NY Jets (+8.5) at Green Bay
By kickoff, the Packers will have had 10 days to live with their humiliation at the hands of Seattle in the season opener. I expect them to assuage their embarrassment by pummeling the overmatched Jets. Green Bay by 20.
Kansas City (+13.5) at Denver
I’ve stated repeatedly my belief that the Titans are a better team than anyone realizes. And I predicted that Tennessee would pull off a road upset last week. But it’s not like I think the Titans are on the same level as the Broncos. They’re not even close. And that’s really bad news for the Chiefs. Denver by … I don’t know, a lot. Let’s say 17.
Chicago (+7) at San Francisco
It’s not really this simple, but it might as well be: If the Bears couldn’t beat the Bills in Chicago, there’s no way they can compete with the 49ers in San Francisco.
Philadelphia (+3) at Indianapolis
Sunday night made it clear that the Colts defense has the potential to be a problem this season, at least when Indy matches up with the league’s better offenses. The Eagles defense, meanwhile, managed to give up 17 points to Jacksonville before remembering how to play football. If I were a betting man, I’d be betting the over. No point betting the outcome, because it’s a push. Indy by a field goal.
