Week One Picks
I guess it’s time for me to start putting my abject stupidity on display once a week again. (Because, hell, the pay can’t be beat). Here’s what not to expect in week one.
Green Bay (+5.5) at Seattle
I’m penciling in a rematch between these teams for the second weekend in January. I think that one takes place in Green Bay and the Packers come out on top. But that comes after the Seahawks run the gantlet of the NFC West over the next 17 weeks. For now, with Seattle starting its title defense in its famously difficult home stadium, I can’t see any way Green Bay comes away with a win. I do think the Packers will find a way to keep it closer than five and a half, mind you, though maybe not so close as a field goal. I’m looking for a competitive game and, ultimately, a four-point Seahawks win.
New Orleans (-3) at Atlanta
The Saints are the better team, though not nearly by so much as they were last season. But the Falcons aren’t going to surrender the division with a home loss in week one. Atlanta struggles early but finds a way to pull it out in the end. Falcons by a point.
Minnesota (+3.5) at St. Louis
You know you’re looking good when you face a team that just lost its starting quarterback for the season and you’re still getting better than a field goal. But, you know, St. Louis has that defense. Rams by six.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
The more things change … . Steelers by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+10.5) at Philadelphia
The Eagles dug themselves a gigantic hole last season by losing their first four home games. Something tells me that’s not going to happen again. Philly by 14.
Oakland (+5) at NY Jets
I’d love to believe Derek Carr and the Raiders had it in them to travel across the country and surprise the Jets with an upset win. And if it happens, I’ll be laughing harder than I have since Super Bowl 43-8. But you can’t pick what you want to happen; you have to pick what you think is going to happen. So, yeah, Jets by nine.
Cincinnati (+2) at Baltimore
If this were a CBS double-header weekend, we’d be able to watch this game at 4:25 rather than the one-sided 49ers-Cowboys affair Fox is sticking us with. Ugh. I expect a bruising game featuring two of the AFC’s better defensive units. I think it sets the tone for the season. And just as I can’t see the Falcons conceding the NFC South to the Saints in week one, I can’t imagine the Ravens allowing the Bengals to take the pole in the AFC North race with an opening Sunday victory in Baltimore. So I’m looking for the Ravens to edge out a narrow victory. Let’s say it’s a push with the points.
Buffalo (+7) at Chicago
This game, like Buffalo’s season, is going to get ugly early. Chicago by 17.
Washington (+3) at Houston
I’m not sure either of these teams is ready to accomplish much in 2014. But I think the Racists may be slightly more ready than the Texans. Washington by a field goal.
Tennessee (+4) at Kansas City
If I really think the Titans are a better team than folks realize, and I really think the Chiefs aren’t as good as folks think, then I suppose I’d better pick the Titans here. Right? I mean, right? Ulp. Tennessee by a field goal.
New England (-5) at Miami
Patriots fans have had this one marked in the win column pretty much since the 2014 schedule was announced. And I get it. The Patriots at least appear to be a significantly better team than the Dolphins. That’s nice and all. But opening the season on the road against a divisional opponent is never easy. The Dolphins always play the Pats tough at home. And the weather in Miami in early September is brutal. I expect all of those factors to combine to make this the kind of tough game that will have Patriots Nation fretting during the early days of next week regardless of whether New England comes out on top. I think the Patriots get a win, and maybe they add a score late to cover, but I think the margin is a field goal at least until the closing minutes, and my money says three in New England’s favor remains the difference at 00:00.
Carolina (+2) at Tampa Bay
I don’t know. It’s nice, I suppose, that there’s this notion out there that the Buccaneers are on the ascent. And Cam Newton, even if he plays, isn’t likely to be at his best. But still. Carolina +2? Really? Panthers by three.
San Francisco (-5) at Dallas
The Cowboys defense is stopping nothing this season. Nothing. San Francisco by 10.
Indianapolis (+7.5) at Denver
Get your popcorn ready. And bet the over. (Yeah, I know the line’s 55.5.) Broncos win 38-30.
NY Giants (+6) at Detroit
I suspect the Lions may actually show up to play a bit of defense at some point during this game. That and home field advantage should make the difference. Detroit by a touchdown.
San Diego (+3) at Arizona
This almost certainly turns out to be the better of the Monday night games. But no one east of the Mississippi is likely to know it until they see the highlights Tuesday morning. I think the home team comes away with a narrow victory in a hard-fought battle. Arizona by two.
