Week Seven Picks
Here we go. Short and sour. What not to expect.
New England (-3.5) at NY Jets
The last time Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski were on the field together in a game against the Jets was almost exactly a year ago, October 21, 2012. They connected for 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 29-26 Patriots win. By the way, New England didn’t have Aqib Talib in that game either. Patriots by 10.
San Diego (-7.5) at Jacksonville
A west coast team traveling across the country to play a 1 p.m. game on a short week is a recipe for a loss. You know, when they’re playing another NFL team. Even facing the Jaguars, the circumstances will probably take their toll on the Chargers. So let’s figure San Diego only wins this one by 12.
Houston (+6.5) at Kansas City
If Case Keenum can get through 60 minutes of football without throwing a pick six, he’ll be arguably the best quarterback to suit up for the Texans all season. So there’s that. Kansas City by 14.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Detroit
These two squads are pretty evenly matched in many respects. But the Lions come out on top in takeaway/giveaway (+5 to the Bengals’ -2). And the Lions are at home. So I’m taking them. Detroit by a field goal.
Buffalo (+7.5) at Miami
Ryan Tannehill is on pace to break David Carr’s single-season record for sacks taken, 76. The Bills defense, which is currently fourth in the league in sacks with 21, should be in a good position to help Tannehill move closer to that mark. It won’t be enough to get the Bills an upset over the well rested Dolphins, but it should be enough to keep Miami’s margin of victory to something more like three or four.
Chicago (pick ’em) at Washington
Robert Griffin III goes into this game having thrown six touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. He’ll come out of it with seven of each. And as a result, the Bears will come out with a seven-point victory.
Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
You could choose to view this game as a matchup of .500 teams. Or you could choose to look at it as a battle for first place in the NFC East. You say, “Ugh, yawn.” I say, “Yeah, no kidding.” The Eagles are at home and the Cowboys left their defense back in 2009. So I’m taking Philly. By a touchdown.
St. Louis (+7) at Carolina
The home team is also the team with a D. It’s really about that simple. Except that Carolina isn’t winning by a touchdown. More like four.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons’ season is over. But the Falcons don’t know it. The Buccaneers season is over, and the Buccaneers know it all too well. Atlanta halts their three-game skid and moves into the part of their season where they flirt continually with .500. That should prove satisfying a team that was the conference one seed a year ago (not to mention a fanbase that went into the year thinking Super Bowl). Atlanta by a touchdown.
San Francisco (-3.5) at Tennessee
The Titans have enough going on defensively to be able to keep this game close in their own stadium. But with Ryan Fitzpatrick lining up behind center, they don’t have an offense that can win it. Niners by three.
Cleveland (+9.5) at Green Bay
And the Browns continue to revert to a state of Browniness. Packers by 14.
Baltimore (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
Maybe after this game is over, I’ll understand completely why so many people thought the Steelers could win it. But I won’t understand before the game. The Ravens defense should have Ben Roethlisberger running for his life all day. He’ll escape a few times, but he’ll make a few awful mistakes, too. That’s the difference here. Baltimore by six.
Denver (-6.5) at Indianapolis
So here’s the thing, Jim Irsay: Recognizing that Tom Brady is a much better quarterback than Peyton Manning is smart. Talking about it the week before Manning comes back to play for another team in your building? Not so much. (Because, um, you don’t have Tom Brady. Or Bill Belichick. Just, you know, so you’re aware.) Broncos by 14.
Minnesota (+3.5) at NY GiantsReally? On Monday night? Ugh. Vikings by a point.
