Week Six Picks
I’m not happy about this week’s slate of games. Not happy about what’s on the schedule. And not happy about how I figure most of them are going to turn out. So there’s that out of the way. Now, here’s what not to expect.
NY Giants (+7.5) at Chicago
The good news for the Giants is that this season, the Bears D isn’t all that great at getting to the quarterback. So New Jersey has an off chance of keeping Eli Manning upright for a change. The bad news for the Giants is that the Chicago D is pretty good at taking the ball away, so keeping Eli on his feet might just mean giving him extra chances to throw interceptions. (If he throws another three this week, he’ll be back on track to threaten George Blanda‘s 51-year-old single-season record. And, hey, you don’t snatch a record away from a Hall of Famer every season. So that would have to count as some weird kind of silver lining, right?) The worse news for the Giants is that their worst start in 34 years is about to become their worst start in 37. Bears by two touchdowns.
Oakland (+9) at Kansas City
There isn’t much the Raiders can say they’ve done consistently well this season, but they have done a pretty good job of holding onto the ball. That goes out the window here. Kansas City by 10.
Philadelphia (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
I started thinking about this game by asking myself, “Which is worse, the Tampa Bay offense or the Philadelphia defense?” Unfortunately, the answer I came back with is both. That’s not helpful. Neither of these teams is going to win this game, but one of them is almost guaranteed to lose it. I’ll go with the one playing its third straight on the road. Buccaneers by a point.
Green Bay (-3) at Baltimore
Whichever team holds onto the ball wins. I’ll go with the home team. Ravens by a field goal.
Detroit (-2.5) at Cleveland
With Brandon Weeden back under center for the Browns and Calvin Johnson possibly missing yet another game for the Lions (and certainly not playing at full speed), I don’t have any idea what to make of this game. I guess I like Detroit’s chances of succeeding without Johnson slightly better than Cleveland’s chances of succeeding with Weeden. So, yeah, Lions by three.
Carolina (+2.5) at Minnesota
The Panthers are probably the better team, but they’re playing their second straight road game (the first of which was a ridiculous loss to a middling team) while the Vikings are playing at home on two weeks rest. So I’m taking Minnesota and expecting the Vikes to come out ahead by something like six.
St. Louis (+7.5) at Houston
Matt Schaub can’t possibly throw another pick six, can he? Can he? I’m going with no. (I mean this week, not ever.) Texans by 10.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at NY Jets
The guy backing up Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers this season is Bruce Gradkowski. I’m just pointing that out is all. I’m totally, totally certain that Roethlisberger is going to stay healthy through the whole season. I mean, you know, he’s a tough guy. He can take all those sacks and come out mostly OK. Right, Steelers fans? Right? New Jersey by a touchdown.
Cincinnati (-7) at Buffalo
The Bills are a quarterback away from being able to win this game. Of course, that’s a pretty big hole in your roster, isn’t it? Bengals by 11.
Tennessee (+13.5) at Seattle
If this game were being played in Nashville … the Titans still wouldn’t be able to keep up with the Seahawks. Seattle by 20.
Jacksonville (+27.5) at Denver
What can one conceivably have to say about this game that would be of any value? You can’t bet on this one, that’s for sure. Because, yes, the Broncos clearly are going to hammer the Jaguars. But are they going to just pour it on? Or are they maybe going to give themselves the chance to take it easy a little after last Sunday’s extravaganza in Dallas? And don’t tell me you know, because you don’t know. Not to the tune of four touchdowns, you don’t. I’m going to to take the Broncos and give the points here, because there’s no money involved, which makes it easy. You feel free to do whatever you like.
Arizona (+10.5) at San Francisco
Right now, the Cardinals are tied with the 49ers for second place in the NFC West. I said “right now.” Niners by 13.
New Orleans (+2.5) at New England
I’ve spent the last several days trying to come up with a reason to pick the Patriots in this one, just because I don’t want the home crowd to feel like I’ve betrayed them. Patriots don’t often lose two in a row. New England’s tough to beat at home. The Patriots have a stifling defense. Rob Gronkowski’s probably going to be back. All good stuff, and nice enough. But I don’t see any of it getting the job done. If New England can get healthier as the season moves on, the Patriots may be the better team come December and/or January. But right now, the Saints are simply the more balanced squad. I expect the New England to make it a game — and I’ll hardly be shocked if they find some way to win — but I can’t see any outcome other than New Orleans winning, by at least a field goal.
Washington (+5.5) at Dallas
Between last week’s game and this one, I suspect they’re gonna have to rename the city Allas. (You see what I did there? No D. Get it?) Cowboys, 38-34.
Indianapolis (-1.5) at San Diego
I present to you these takeaway/giveaway differentials: Indianapolis, +6 (10 takeaways, 4 giveaways); San Diego, -8 (10 giveaways, 2 takeaways). And with that, I conclude my thoughts on this game. Colts by seven.
