Week Thirteen Picks
Would someone please inform the NFL (and the NBA) that the question is not whether people bet on sports, but how people bet on sports. Legalizing sports betting in Atlantic City will only change who takes in all the money and how people who can’t pay their gambling debts are treated — i.e. whether they get taken to court or into an alley somewhere. Trust me, folks, anyone who wants to bet on a football game right now can do it. Easily. It’s easier to gamble than it is to buy illegal drugs, and it’s unbelievably easy to buy drugs. (And in case you’re contemplating asking me, “Well, shouldn’t we just go ahead and legalize drugs?” Yes. My answer is yes. Prohibition is stupid and ineffective.)
I love this statement from Jay Moyer, NFL Special Counsel: “Sporting events should be appreciated for the athleticism and entertainment value, not as gambling devices.” How about both, Jay? Because that’s what happens. And you and your employers know it damned well. This part’s better, though: “Legalizing betting on sports is the wrong message to send to younger sports fans.” And what about the misogyny and homophobia the NFL tolerates from coaches and players? Is that the right message? The spouse and girlfriend abuse? The steroid use? Or, hey, how about the way professional sports are used to push alcohol? Is that good for the kids? Or the way the NFL’s use of college football as a farm system has undermined the educational standards of universities from coast to coast? Is that sending a better message?
I guess what I’m saying is that, yeah, I know it’s their job and everything, that they have to take an official position in opposition to legal sports gambling, but, shit, the NFL (and the NBA, too) has a lot of nerve telling others what sports should and shouldn’t be for.
OK, OK, on to the useless picks. Here are mine. Lots of emphasis on the run — and consequently on run defense — from here on out. Here’s how I see it (with the usual caution about how I’m almost always wrong):
Arizona (+5.5) at Detroit
I used to think Dennis Green was a smart football coach. Then, just as Arizona’s offense appeared to be heating up, he started this ongoing game of musical quarterbacks, benching Josh McCown, who’d played well for three games before he was told to sit, in favor of Shaun King, who came in and sucked like crazy, and then moving on to rookie QB John Navarre. And, yeah, the kid’s getting his first start against Detroit, not exactly a powerhouse D, but I’m still not expecting too much. Add to that the fact that the Cards are almost entirely incapable of run defense (they’ve given up 150 or more yards on the ground five times this season and are 27th overall against the run) and you get yourself a nice day for Detroit RB Kevin Jones and a win for the Lions. I’d go ahead and give the five and a half, too.
Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay
Here’s an upset in the making (though, obviously, not a major one). Tampa Bay should score some points; Atlanta’s tough against the run, but not so tough against the pass. And Michael Vick will have trouble finding open receivers given the skill Tampa Bay brings to its Cover 2 defense. The trouble for the Bucs, though, is that they’re miserable against the run, which isn’t good news when Vick is in town. You can shut down receivers all day, but it doesn’t do you any good if the opposing quarterback just takes off for 10 or 20 yards when he can’t find anyone. I like the Falcons to clinch their division with a three- or four-point victory here.
Buffalo (-3) at Miami
Ignore the “it’s tough to do all that traveling” bullshit they’re peddling in regard to Buffalo here. First of all, yeah, the Bills did play in Seattle last week and now has to travel to Miami, but the Fins were on the West Coast for two straight weeks coming into this, so they can’t exactly be feeling fresh. Second, and more important, the Bills are so much better than the Dolphins they could travel to fucking Bangkok Friday, spend the weekend in opium dens and whore houses, catch the redeye to Miami overnight Saturday/Sunday (you know, the famous Thailand-to-Florida express), take two hours to sleep and sober up a bit before the game, and still stomp all over the Fins’ shit. It’s that simple. Buffalo, by the way, put up 75 points in their last two games. Miami managed 41, 24 of which came against San Francisco, the worst team in the league (worse than Miami by exactly one loss — to Miami). And playing against Miami’s 29th ranked run D should make Willis McGahee’s day. So what I’m saying is, yes, take the Bills and give the points. Just do what I say.
Carolina (+1.5) at New Orleans
Here comes another minor upset by a road team. I don’t care what your offense does, when your defense is ranked 32nd against the pass, 32nd against the run, and 32nd overall (as the Saints’ D is), you don’t win football games. And Carolina is the best 4-7 team in the league. Take the Panthers and the point and a half.
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens have to know they can’t afford to take a loss here. They got beat up pretty bad by the Patriots last week, and that’s gotta stick with you, but they simply have to rebound and win this one, because they’re schedule going forward ain’t easy (they’ve got the Giants next week, which should be no big problem, but then they’re at Indy and at Pittsburgh) and they’ve gotta make 10-6 if they’re gonna have a shot at the playoffs. By the time this one’s over, Cincinnati’s gonna wish they could apply some of their extra points from last week’s 58-48 victory over the Browns to this one just to make it a bit less humiliating. Take the Ravens and give the points.
Houston (+6.5) at NY Jets
Two things about this game: First, the Jets defense is ranked sixth against the run. Second, Chad Pennington is back under center for New York. That first bit is the difference. The second could actually hurt if Pennington’s rushing back too soon or if the weather conditions at Giants Stadium make it tough for him to find a groove. Look for Curtis Martin to pick up where he left off a few weeks back and to carry his team to a close victory, which is to say, take the Jets straight up, Houston with the points.
Minnesota (-7) at Chicago
If the Bears gave up 204 yards to Edgerrin James two weeks ago and 150 to Julius Jones last week, how many do you think they’ll give up to Onterrio Smith this week? With Randy Moss back to full strength and demanding coverage, my guess is that it’ll edge up toward Edge’s numbers. Meanwhile, let’s see if Chicago’s latest QB, Chad Hutchinson, is able to get anything done against even Minnesota’s less-than-stellar defense. My guess is that he won’t be. I like the Vikings by 10 or more.
New England (-9.5) at Cleveland
A shakeup at head coach. A new guy under center. A tough loss in a high-scoring game with a division rival just behind you. And the hot, hot, hot defending champs coming to town. None of that bodes well for Cleveland. Look for the Pats to force Cleveland to run the ball (not exactly a chore for the New England D) and to stuff Lee Suggs and William Green at the line repeatedly. Take the Pats, and, yeah, go ahead and give the points. The Pats are murdering teams these days. (Prediction within a prediction: I say this is the week when Troy Brown scores his first defensive touchdown.)
San Francisco (+10.5) at St. Louis
I don’t know what it is, but something tells me the hot-and-cold Rams are headed back to hot this weekend. Oh, wait, I do know: It’s the Niners’ 1-10 record. Take St. Louis straight up, but don’t give in to the temptation to give those points. The Rams defense is 31st against the run and 28th against the pass, so even San Francisco should be able to keep the difference to a touchdown or less.
Tennessee (+10.5) at Indianapolis
The Titans, for all their problems, have a pretty good defense. It’s ranked 11th overall. Today, anyhow. Come Monday they should be sitting at something more like 15th or 16th. Take the Colts and give the damned points. With little to no help from the offense, even the best D’s not gonna be able to keep up with Peyton Manning and crew.
Denver (+3) at San Diego
You don’t run the ball on San Diego, so forget about Reuben Droughns in this one. And, you know what? Just go ahead and forget about the Broncos in this one. Denver’s in a tailspin after getting bested by the Raiders Sunday night. And the Chargers are on fire. Take San Diego and give the points.
Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland
Watching the Raiders beat the Broncos Sunday night, one could only conclude that the team is starting to get Norv Turner’s system. It’s too little too late, of course, but it does come just in time for the Raiders to host the 3-8 Chiefs, who will either be starting a seriously banged up Trent Green or a backup QB, Todd Collins, who’s spent time on the field in all of nine games during his seven years with the team. So, barring some major mistakes by quarterback Kerry Collins (who can make some major mistakes), the Raiders should be able to top the Chiefs, shoring up their third-place finish in the AFC West (whoohoo). I like Oakland by three.
Green Bay (+6) at Philadelphia
Philadelphia could get surprised here. The Eagles are gonna have a tough time stopping Ahman Green (or, if something goes wrong with Ahman’s plans to return to the field on Sunday, Najeh Davenport). And the Packers have been playing very well against the run of late. If they’re able to take Brian Westbrook out of the game, and if they can put up some points early, then they force the Eagles to keep it in the air and make Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb try to win the game on their own. The problem with that, of course, is that McNabb and Owens are capable of doing just that. And they’re at home. Take the Eagles straight up, but look for the Pack to keep it to within a field goal.
NY Giants (+2) at Washington
Tiki Barber is not gonna be able to carry the day for the Giants here. Washington isn’t a very good team, but that’s just because they can’t seem to score. The Skins are very good at run D (ranked third in the league, in fact), so unless Eli Manning finds the magic Manning thing in an awful hurry, the Giants are gonna have a tough time here. I’m taking the Redskins, though I’d neither give nor take the points here (take the Giants to cover if you must do something, but plan to take a hit).
Pittsburgh (-3) at Jacksonville
It’s nice to think Jacksonville could pull off the upset here. And they could. The Jaguars do play well against the run, which could force Pittsburgh’s rookie QB, Ben Roethlisberger, to throw more than 25 times (and no one knows what happens when he gets up to 30 or more). But you can’t go around picking against Pittsburgh these days. You just can’t. So go safe, pick the favorite and give the points.
Dallas (+7) at Seattle
Don’t expect the Seahawks to sit still for the same kind of beating they took from Buffalo last week. They’ll make Dallas pay for that. Take the Hawks straight up. Against the spread it’s a push.
