Week Three Picks, Post Thursday Night
Well, I called the upset on Thursday night OK. So that should be it for me and getting anything right this week. Here’s what no to expect today and tomorrow.
San Diego (+3) at Tennessee
Traveling across (or very nearly across) the country for a second week in a row won’t be easy on the Chargers. Neither will the Titans defense. Tennessee by a touchdown.
Cleveland (+7) at Minnesota
Two games in and the Browns have called it a season. That’s gotta be some kind of new record, right? I’m sure it’s doing absolute wonders for team morale. Vikings by 20.
Tampa Bay (+7) at New England
The over/under on this game is 44. Who they hell is Vegas kidding? The two defenses have allowed a combined average of 33.5 per game. And neither team has anything even approaching a complete offense. I’ll be mildly surprised if the total points in this one gets above 30. The Patriots are at home, and they at least have a quarterback (it would be helpful if they also had more than one healthy guy who could catch a ball, but so it goes), so I’ll take them to win. But not by a touchdown. New England 17-13.
Houston (-2) at Baltimore
The Ravens just don’t have it in them to slow down the Texans’ passing attack. Houston by a touchdown.
St. Louis (+3.5) at Dallas
Neither of these teams is going anywhere. That’s about all I can say for sure. And if I were smart, I’d take the home favorite straight up and think about taking the visitors to cover. But I’m not smart. And I simply can never trust a team that believes in Tony Romo. So let’s go with the outright upset. Rams by a field goal.
Arizona (+7.5) at New Orleans
Drew Brees has thrown as many interceptions to this point in the season as he has touchdowns (three each). That’s a statistical anomaly for Brees, and I expect it’s going to get corrected over the balance of the season. That’s too bad for the Cardinals, too, because they’re not winning this game without creating a few turnovers. But who knows, maybe they’ll force a few fumbles. I mean, I’m not staking anything on the possibility, but it could happen. Maybe. Then again, probably not. Saints by 10.
Detroit (pick ’em) at Washington
A second straight road game for the Lions, who suffered a tough loss in Arizona last weekend. Plus, while Reggie Bush may play, he certainly won’t be operating at full speed. If I thought the Racists could get out of their own damned way, I’d pick them without reservation. But I don’t think Washington can do much of anything well right now. So while I’m still picking the home team, I’m doing it with serious reservations. Washington by a single point.
Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati
There’s a little voice in the back of my head screaming about how the Bengals are going to win this game. But there’s a bigger voice in the front of my head that looks at the Packers offense and screams back (more loudly), “Shut up. No they’re not.” I’m riding with the big voice, partially because he scares me a little. Green Bay wins it straight up. It’s a push with the points.
NY Giants (-1.5) at Carolina
Eli Manning is on track to throw an NFL record-shattering 56 interceptions this season. That won’t hold up, of course, though Eli does look like he’s going to push to top his personal high of 25 in a season (2010). Despite that, and despite the not-unrelated fact that the Giants have given up more points than any other team in the NFL this season, I still see New Jersey as the better squad in this matchup. Because, yes, I know, I’m delusional. Still and all, Giants by four.
Atlanta (+3) at Miami
I agree with the common perception that Miami’s defense — particularly its sacktacular pass rush — will make things very tough on Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. I’m not so sure I agree with the notion that making things very tough equates to shutting things down. I suspect the Falcons will pull out a win here. Atlanta by three.
Indianapolis (+10) at San Francisco
The Colts may have a shiny new running back (exact level of shininess to be determined), but he’s not going to win them this game. These 49ers don’t lose two straight. And the Colts don’t have enough defense to change that. Niners by 14.
Jacksonville (+19.5) at Seattle
I wonder if the Seahawks, who are coming off a Sunday night beatdown of the division rival 49ers, will be able to care enough about this game to bury the Jaguars the way they probably should. I’m taking Seattle straight up, of course, because the Jags look to me like a team headed for 0-16. But I’ll take Jacksonville to cover. Barely. Seattle by 17.
Buffalo (+2.5) at NY Jets
Neither of these teams is very good. So when I say the Bills are better than the Jets, you understand that what I really mean is less bad, right. Less bad Buffalo wins the turnover battle by one and the game by three.
Chicago (-2) at Pittsburgh
In which Ben Roethlisberger throws no fewer than two picks, one of which goes for six the other way. Chicago 23-6.
Oakland (+15.5) at Denver
Maybe the best thing you can say about the Raiders is that they might not be as bad as everyone expected. Or if you just wanted to focus on the positive, you could point out that the Oakland D has done a pretty good job of getting to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have logged nine sacks over their first two games. That’s troublesome news if you’re a team for which protecting the quarterback is even more important than usual and that just lost another key piece of its offensive line. It doesn’t add up to an Oakland upset, mind you, but it might keep it closer than expected. Denver by 13.
