Week Two Picks
I think I know a little more this week than I did last. Or I don’t. My top talent as a prognosticator remains my ability to pretend after the fact that I knew something all along. (Bet you don’t know anyone else like that, huh?) Still, if Rex Ryan can continue to charge into this season in the face of certain failure, so can I. Here’s what not to expect in week two.
NY Jets (+11.5) at New England
I don’t know what to make of this damned game. Sure, the Jets are completely awful and insanely lucky to have come away from their home opener with a win over a Tampa team of questionable ability. And, yeah, Tom Brady never has two bad games in a row. But, um, to whom is Brady going to throw the ball? Julian Edelman? Like, all night? So, OK, the Patriots defense ought to be able to handle what the Jets are trying to pass off as an offense, but is the New England D going to put up a few scores? Because if you’re going to win a football game, someone, at some point, has to put points on the board. I’ll be interested to see how the Pats handle this situation, and perhaps as impressed as I’ve ever been if Brady manages as much as 20 completions and 200 passing yards (which, incidentally, would be his least productive outing in just less than two years). I can’t see the Jets leaving Foxborough with a win, but I’m not giving anything close to eleven and a half points. I’ll go with New England by six, 19-13.
San Diego (+7.5) at Philadelphia
I’m sure traveling across the country on a short week to face an offense that would have their D completely gassed by the end of the first quarter under the best of circumstances is going to work out just swimmingly for the Chargers. Just, just … swimmingly. Eagles by 24. Minimum.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore
So far this season, the Ravens defense has given up an average of seven touchdowns per game. Try as they might, I think they’ll only be able to cut that average in half this week. (You see what I did there?) Baltimore by 20.
Tennessee (+9) at Houston
Let’s figure the Texans are still catching their breath after needing a furious second half to overcome the Chargers on Monday night. And let’s assume the Titans defense really is what it appeared to be at Pittsburgh. That should mean Tennessee keeps it closer than nine. Maybe more like six or seven? So let’s say Houston wins 23-17.
Miami (+2.5) at Indianapolis
Andrew Luck took four sacks, losing 31 yards, last Sunday vs. Oakland. The Miami defense, meanwhile, chased down Brandon Weeden six times for 45 yards in their road win over Cleveland. Might not mean much. Playing on the road two weeks in a row is always tough. And the Colts aren’t the Browns (though, then again, neither are the Dolphins the Raiders). Or maybe it means it’s going to be a long, difficult day for Luck. I’m picking the upset. Because why not? Dolphins by a field goal.
Carolina (-3) at Buffalo
The Bills had a chance to pull off a huge upset last weekend and let it slip away. A win here over yet another visiting favorite would be far less meaningful, which I suppose is nice since they’re not going to get it. Panthers by four.
St. Louis (+6.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons need to get right. The Rams are due to come back to earth. In the NFL, things are never really that simple, except for how sometimes they kind of are. Atlanta by a touchdown.
Washington (+7.5) at Green Bay
I don’t know if anyplace does prop bets on total sacks, but I’m thinking six, split evenly between the two defenses. I’m also thinking that Aaron Rodgers playing at home is the quarterback most likely to rise above. Packers by four.
Dallas (+3) at Kansas City
Eli Manning may have put up 450 passing yards and four TDs Sunday night, but he also out-Romoed Tony Romo, making a series of stupid mistakes that effectively handed the Cowboys a win. Alex Smith won’t put up the big numbers, but he also won’t commit the big blunders. Chiefs by seven.
Minnesota (+6) at Chicago
Two words: Christian Ponder. Bears win by 14 on the strength of two pick sixes.
New Orleans (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Three and a half? Really? Maybe that’s on the assumption that the Buccaneers won’t shoot themselves in the foot at home. The only thing is, they won’t need to. Saints by 10.
Detroit (-1.5) at Arizona
I don’t expect Carson Palmer to survive this game. Lions by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+5.5) at Oakland
Imagine if you lived in Jackonville and — on top of, you know, living in Jacksonville — this was the only game you could get on TV Sunday at 4. How awful would that be? Oakland by 17. That’s right. The Raiders. By 17. Because the Jags really are that bad.
Denver (-4.5) at NY Giants
It’s not about Peyton vs. Eli. It’s about the teams around the two quarterbacks. And in a lot of ways, it’s about a defense that allowed Tony Romo to complete 74 percent of his passes on Sunday night trying to figure out how to stop Peyton Manning, who’s playing on 10 days rest. You know just as well as I do how that turns out. Denver by 13.
San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
All I can say with confidence is that this should be one hell of a battle. And that I’m glad it’s on in prime time. I’ll take the home team to edge out a win, but only by a point.
Pittsburgh (+7) at Cincinnati
Something tells me this whole not having a center thing is going to prove troublesome for the Steelers. Just a hunch. Bengals by 12.
