Week One Picks, Part Two
OK, so the Ravens weren’t able to keep it close on Thursday night after all. I knew Baltimore wouldn’t have last year’s defense on the field. Just didn’t know how great the drop off would be. Let’s see how wrong I am about every other team in the NFL. Here’s what not to expect in the rest of week one.
New England (-10) at Buffalo
Yes, yes, yes. Tom Brady has a whole new group of receivers and what’s he going to be able to accomplish and all that. Very nice. Let’s talk about it in week three when the Patriots play a team that’s in a position to beat them. Right now what matters is that the Bills are depleted, banged up, and starting a rookie quarterback who missed the last two weeks of the preseason with an injury. That’s not what one calls starting from a strong position. Even running the ball on something like 60% of their offensive snaps, New England wins by no fewer than 17.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
The Titans may well be headed in the right direction while the Steelers are either going the opposite way or standing still. But these teams won’t pull even for a while yet. Pittsburgh by a touchdown.
Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans
Green Bay at San Francisco is clearly the game of the day, but this is easily the game of the early afternoon. Over/under is 55 and if I were betting (which I’m not), I’d be betting the over big. New Orleans gets the ball last and wins it by a point.
Tampa Bay (-3.5) at NY Jets
Giving three and a half to Tampa in your home opener? Looking good, Rex. Looking real good. Bucs by a field goal.
Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville
The Chiefs have a quarterback. I think. Which is more than anyone can even consider saying about the Jaguars.
Cincinnati (-3) at Chicago
I know the games in Chicago, which is a famously tough place to play, and all. But the Bengals are simply better than the Bears by a good bit more than three points. Cincinnati by 14.
Miami (+1.5) at Cleveland
It’s hard to break your fans’ hearts when expectations are consistently low. So the Browns are going to have to artificially raise them. This seems like a good game to start with. Cleveland by four.
Seattle (-3) at Carolina
I’ve said already that I expect the Seahawks to fall apart under the weight of Russell Wilson‘s stature. But not today. Wilson’s too smart, and his team is too talented and too well coached, to lose to the Panthers. Even cross-country travel won’t change that (though it might slow things down a bit). Seattle by six.
Minnesota (+4) at Detroit
At some point, Adrian Peterson is going to figure out (for real) that no matter how great he may be, his team can’t succeed with Christian Ponder behind center. And then all hell’s gonna break loose. Lions by three.
Oakland (+10.5) at Indianapolis
So what do you think, Mr. Clowney? Are you ready to be an Oakland Raider? Colts by 14.
Arizona (+4.5) at St. Louis
In which it starts to become clear that Carson Palmer, in fact, is not going to save the Cardinals. St. Louis by six.
Green Bay (+4.5) at San Francisco
Is it possible that this week one game might not only preview the NFC Championship but determine where that late-January meeting takes place? Absolutely. These are both terrific football teams that should be in the hunt from end to end as long as they stay healthy. Still and all, I suspect both offenses may have some difficulty getting started. The Packers’ O line is going to have a hard time keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. And Colin Kaepernick is going to have difficulty finding open targets. The 49ers are better positioned to overcome their offensive obstacles today, so I’ll take them to win. But I’m thinking the difference works to to something more like a field goal.
NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas
I know the Giants have their problems — on O line, along the defensive front, at running back … — but I’m pretty sure the Cowboys are still relying on Tony Romo at quarterback. And that’s all that really matters. New Jersey by a pick six.
Philadelphia (+3.5) at Washington
I keep hearing about how Michael Vick is the perfect quarterback to execute Chip Kelly‘s offense. So I guess I’ll look forward to seeing the Eagles in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, since RG3 is sort of healthy for now, I’ll take the Racists to win this one by a touchdown.
Houston (-4) at San Diego
I like the scheduling strategy on display here. If you’re going to have the last game of week one kick off at 10:20 p.m. Eastern, you might as well make it a game that’s likely to be over by halftime. Or perhaps by the end of the first quarter. Texans by 20.
