This Football Blog

I wasn’t going to do season predictions for 2013.

Because why bother? In early September no one has any idea what the NFL landscape is going to look like in early October, let alone early February. So what’s the point?

But I’m mentally ill or something. Can’t stop thinking, “You do it every year.” So with hours to go before the season get under way, here we go. Down and dirty.

(As always, I’m not doing the predicting final records thing. That’s too absurd even for my diseased brain. So once again, I’ll give an estimated range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. Even then, I’m going to be wrong more often than I’m right.)

AFC East

New England Patriots, 11-13
Yeah, lots of new faces on offense. But the guy lining up behind center is still Tom Brady (still the greatest quarterback in NFL history). And the defense should be better. And the AFC East is still a giant bloody mess. I’m thinking 6-2, possibly 5-3 over the first eight games while they feel their way around the new offense, and 7-1, possibly 6-2, over the second half of the season. That should be good for a division title and quite possibly a bye week.

Miami Dolphins, 5-7
The Dolphins look to me like the second best team in the division. They’re certainly headed in the right direction, building a team around Ryan Tannehill.  But they’re not as far along as some seem to think. And quarterbacks are prone to sophomore slumps.

Buffalo Bills, 3-6
The Bills have some growing still to do.

New York Jets, 3-5
So long, Rex.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens, 10-12
It’s all about Joe Flacco in Baltimore this season. The defense isn’t carrying the team this year. Either Flacco’s doing it, or it’s not getting done. My money’s on Flacco doing it.

Cincinnati Bengals, 9-12
The Bengals are the team just about everyone’s picking to carry the AFC North this season. And there’s good reason for that. They were good enough to qualify for the playoffs a year ago, and they’ve improved over the off-season. Second-round draft pick Giovani Bernard is going to be a beast. And the D should be formidable. But I’m not going to believe in Andy Dalton until Andy Dalton gives me really good reason to believe. So I’m hedging and saying wild card again.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-9
The Steelers are supposed to be back in the mix this season. I’m not sold. I think they’re headed for another middling season.

Cleveland Browns, 4-5
You can count on the Browns to win four or five games every season. Must make it thrilling to be a sports fan in Cleveland.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 11-13
Another impressive season. Another AFC South title. And another spectacular mid-January collapse.

Indianapolis Colts, 8-10
The Colts never looked like an 11-5 team to me last season, even when they got to 11-5. This season they take somewhere between a half step and a full step back.

Tennessee Titans, 7-8
The Titans are probably a better team this season than they were last. By a win. Maybe two.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-4
Yup. It’s the Jaguars.

AFC West

Denver Broncos, 10-12
Have  you heard? This is the season when Peyton Manning is going to lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl (as opposed to choking majorly in his first playoff game — because, you know, that was such a fluke for him). I’ll be interested to see if Manning manages to survive the first part of the season, playing behind a center who is unproven to say the least. Assuming he does, and figuring in the six gift victories the Broncos get by playing in the AFC West, which is every bit as much of a mess as the AFC East, I can’t see how Denver fails to win its division. After that, I’m not so sure.

Kansas City Chiefs, 6-9
I suppose there’s something to be said for being the second best team in the AFC West. I’m just not sure what that something might be.

San Diego Chargers, 4-6
The Chargers can be thankful, at the very least, that they’re not the Raiders. Which is to say, they at least have hope that they can blow it all up at the end of the season and start rebuilding.

Oakland Raiders, 2-4
The Raiders can’t be thankful that they’re not the Raiders.

NFC East

New York Giants, 9-12
If I thought Robert Griffin III had the remotest chance of surviving the season, I’d be picking Washington to win the NFC East. But he doesn’t. So I’m taking the best team in the division with a quarterback who doesn’t expose himself to a demolition derby on every snap.

Washington Racists, 4-13
Pretty wide range, I know. RG3 stays healthy, the Racists are the classless class of the division. He goes down, it’s a horror show. And he’s going down. The question is when.

Philadelphia Eagles, 6-8
I’ve got this crazy thing about NFL teams needing to have quarterbacks.

Dallas Cowboys, 4-7
Or, let me restate that, I’ve got this crazy thing about NFL teams needing to have good quarterbacks.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-14
You know that thing I was just saying about quarterbacks? Yeah.

Minnesota Vikings, 7-9
Like, sometimes, even when you have maybe one of the all-time greatest running backs, not having a good quarterback can drag you down.

Chicago Bears, 6-8
You can even have a killer running back and a stout defense and have your legs cut out from under you by an unreliable quarterback.

Detroit Lions, 6-8
Or you could have a quarterback and an amazing wide receiver, and maybe a player or two on defense. But you have to build a team around them, or you end up stumbling there, too.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 11-13
The Falcons are supposed to win the NFC South. But the Saints are going to win the NFC South. Because … yep, quarterback. Matt Ryan‘s really good, but Drew Brees is better. It’s not really that simple, except for how it kind of is.

Atlanta Falcons, 10-12
What I just said.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-8
People keep telling me Josh Freeman is better than I think he is. And then I watch Freeman play and I’m certain that he’s exactly as good as I think he is, which is to say he’s average most of the time, good some of the time, and awful too much of the time. What’s the word I’m looking for? Oh, right, it’s uneven. Consistently inconsistent, if you prefer.

Carolina Panthers, 2-6
I like Cam Newton as a football player. But he’s one football player. Not 11. And certainly not 22.

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers, 9-12
I don’t think the 49ers need to worry about a Super Bowl hangover. I think they need to worry about a dropoff in talent at the wide receiver position. They’re not as talented a team as they were last season and they’re not taking anyone by surprise. That said, I don’t buy into the notion that the Seahawks are poised to unseat the Niners. I think San Francisco still edges out a division title.

Seattle Seahawks, 8-10
Sooner or later, Russell Wilson‘s height is going to catch up with him. I’m thinking it starts in the second half of this season.

Arizona Cardinals, 6-8
Carson Palmer hasn’t been anything more than an OK-ish quarterback for about five years now. Not sure why everyone seems to believe another change of scenery is likely to change that.

St. Louis Rams, 5-7
The Rams certainly appear to be headed in the right direction. They’ve got some distance to travel still, though.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. Houston
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Indianapolis

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. San Francisco
4. NY Giants
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Indianapolis
Denver defeats Cincinnati

NFC
San Francisco defeats Seattle
Atlanta defeats NY Giants

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Denver defeats Houston
New England defeats Baltimore

NFC
New Orleans defeats San Francisco
Green Bay defeats Atlanta

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Denver

NFC
Green Bay defeats New Orleans

Super Bowl XLVIII
New England defeats Green Bay

And there you have it. The 2013 NFL season just as it won’t happen.