This Football Blog

Here’s how it breaks down: I’m taking the road teams in the NFC and the home teams in the AFC. There’s no formula at work there. It’s just how it worked out. So what that means, on the whole, is that the road teams will prevail in the AFC and the home teams will advance in the NFC. Which is really just another way of saying here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+9.5) at Denver
This is why I don’t actually put any money on football games. The big spreads in both of the AFC matchups this weekend make me nervous. Sure, the Broncos and Patriots are the conference one and two seeds for a reason. And both the Ravens and the Texans appeared to be fading pretty steadily down the stretch (the Ravens lost four of their final five regular season games — making them 2-4 in their last six games when you add in their wild card round victory over the phony baloney Indianapolis Colts — while the Texans dropped their of their last four, which makes them 2-3 over their last five games when you factor in their wild card round victory over the inept Cincinnati Bengals). There aren’t a lot of reasons to anticipate straight-up upsets in either of the AFC games. But straight up is a different matter than against the spread. And two scores is just a lot to give in the divisional round. Then again, go ahead and tell me how the Ravens are going to compete with the Broncos in Denver. The Ravens that the Broncos hammered the Ravens in Baltimore a mere four weeks ago. The Ravens that are counting on an injured, 37-year-old linebacker to lead the way as they try to slow down the high-scoring, fast-moving Denver offense (because Lewis is a “great leader,” which is nice, I suppose, but hardly the same as being a great player, something he wasn’t this season even before he tore his triceps). The Ravens that simply don’t have a balanced enough offense to keep up with the Broncos. I see one chance for the Ravens to keep this game close: takeaways. If Baltimore can come out on top in the takeaway battle (something they definitely have the ability to do), they can keep the difference to a touchdown or so. If they can come out with a takeaway/giveaway differential of +2, they might be able to win it outright. But I don’t see that happening. And while I think they might stay with the Broncos until late in the second half, I think they ultimately fall by just a hair more than the spread. Denver by 10.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco
This one’s being pegged as a tough game to pick, but I’m not sure I buy it. Like the two AFC games, I think this features a team that improved over the course of the season playing a team that started hot, then appeared to stumble some down the stretch (though not nearly so pronouncedly as with the AFC squads). The only real difference is that in this one the hot team is on the road. I just don’t think the San Francisco defense is healthy enough to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense — you have to sack Rodgers at least five times get him off his game, something I’m not sure the Niners could do even if they were at full strength — whereas I’m fairly confident that the underrated Green Bay D has it in them to take at least something off of young Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers O. I’m looking for something close to a reversal of the result from these teams’ week one meeting, with the Packers coming out on top this time. But let’s say the difference will be seven rather than eight.

Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta
Just like everybody else, I’m fairly certain that losing Chris Clemons is going to present a serious problem for the Seahawks defense. And I’m pretty sure you’ll see it play out in this game. Less pressure on Matt Ryan means more time for Julio Jones and Roddy White to get open. That’s going to put pressure on a Seattle D that was already going to have it’s hands full trying to slow down Jones, White and Tony Gonzalez. But it’s not like Seattle’s defense has been built on getting to the quarterback. It’s built to make the pass less and less effective over the course of a game by beating the tar out of the guys who catch the ball. Seattle still has the guys to do that. And as long as the Seahawks offense can keep them in the game long enough for toughness to become the deciding factor — which they should be able to do, as long as Marshawn Lynch is at least mostly healthy — I think they’ll manage to come out on top (only to lose next weekend in Green Bay). Seattle by a field goal.

Houston (+9.5) at New England
Here again, nine and a half seems like an awful lot to give in a divisional playoff game. It’s considerably less, of course, than the Patriots’ 28-point margin of victory in their week fourteen blowout of the Texans. But keep in mind that the ball bounced New England’s way all night long in that game. Luck may be, in Branch Rickey’s words, “the residue of design” (which is what Patriots situation football is all about), but no amount of design and no amount of preparation is going to guarantee that a goal line fumble by your running back is going to bounce into the hands of one of your receivers in the end zone. That kind of luck goes as easily as it comes. Still it’s not like everything went New England’s way and the Pats came out ahead by a field goal. The luck part of that game might have been the difference between a convincing 14-point game and a four-touchdown walloping, but that’s hardly the same as luck proving the factor that decides a win. The Patriots were the better team then, and they’re even more clearly the better team now. The New England offense is the highest scoring, fastest moving unit in football. The New England defense is much better than fans (and experts) realize (take a look at this graphic, which illustrates just how much better the Patriots pass D is now than it was 10 weeks ago — it’s not by just a little bit). And while I’m still not sure the Patriots league-best takeaway/giveaway differential (+25) means all that much against a team that takes as good care of the ball as Houston does, I simply find it hard to believe that the Texans secondary can prevail against the Patriots hurry-up passing attack, or that Houston’s vanilla offense can succeed against New England’s complex defense. So, yeah, I’m going to give the nine and a half here, too. In fact, I’d go as high as 14.