This Football Blog

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston
I keep hearing/reading about how well the Bengals defense has been playing (and it has) and about how lost the Texans have looked over the final weeks of the season (and they have), and it kind of makes me want to join the crowd picking Cincinnati to pull off an  upset here. But I can’t. That’s not because I believe in the Texans (since I don’t) or because I don’t believe in the Bengals (though I don’t). Neither is it because I believe in Matt Schaub (I assure you that I don’t). It’s that I believe Andy Dalton and the Bengals offensive line are a difficult combination when you’re trying to win a playoff game on the road. Dalton has thrown too many picks, taken too many sacks and lost too many fumbles this season not to be a danger to his own team in a big game like this. The Texans defense does a pretty good job of getting to the quarterback, even in games when the opposing O line isn’t shaky (with one notable recent exception, of course). And the Texans offense does a good job of holding on to the ball, which means that a turnover or two by the Bengals — and those giveaways strike me as virtually inevitable — almost ensures that Cincinnati loses the turnover battle. And when you lose the turnover battle, you usually lose the game. I still don’t believe in the Texans, however, so I’m not giving any four and a half points. But I do like Houston to come out on top by a field goal.

Minnesota (+7.5) at Green Bay
I’ll start out by noting that I didn’t think the Vikings had it in them to win one game in a row over the Packers, so I sure as hell don’t think two straight is even a remote possibility. I’m thinking that at this point the Packers are pretty well aware that they’re not going to neutralize Adrian Peterson and force Christian Ponder to beat them with a defensive effort. The Packers weren’t able to slow Peterson down in either regular season meeting with the Vikings and they’re not likely to do it here. Neither can they count on Ponder to offer up a pair of costly turnovers as he did back in week thirteen. The best way to make Peterson a non-factor (and to put Ponder in a position to make crucial mistakes) is for the Green Bay offense to pour it on. And that’s what I expect to see them do. Minnesota’s defense is purely average. And it was pretty clear in the second half last weekend that the Packers had figured out how to score on the Vikings. I expect to see Green Bay pick up where they left off and put Minnesota in a deep enough hole that they can overcome Peterson’s production. Seven and a half is steep in a playoff game, particularly among division rivals, but I think Green Bay is up to the task. Packers by 10.

Indianapolis (+7) at Baltimore
Every season, there’s a team that makes the playoffs despite that it clearly has no business there. This season, that team is the Colts. Indianapolis comes into this game with a one-dimensional offense led by a rookie quarterback who very well might turn out to be great someday, but who is no better than average right now (no matter what you might have heard); a defense capable of stopping nothing; and a giveaway-takeaway differential of -12. The Ravens may be fading (they’re probably fading), but they’re not fading that fast. The Ravens take good care of the ball, they do a good job of taking advantage of the opportunities opponents present, and they have an offense that’s plenty good enough to put up 28 or better on the Colts. That will get the job done. Straight up, anyhow. It’s a push with the points.

Seattle (-3) at Washington
The only thing I know about this game is that it ought to be exciting to watch. I’m not sure I’d feel that way if Robert Griffin III were healthy. I think Griffin’s good enough to give even Seattle’s outstanding defense a tough time. Neither am I sure I’d feel that way if the Native Americans’ defense were healthy. I’ve been impressed with Russell Wilson, no question about that. He’s a kid with a great football head on his shoulders. But I continue to wonder if that head (and those shoulders) aren’t ultimately just a few inches too close to the ground for Wilson to succeed over the long term or in the big spot. But Griffin isn’t 100 percent. And the Washington defense hasn’t been 100 percent all season. And because of that, I have to believe Seattle has a shot. In fact, if the game were in Seattle, I’m pretty sure I’d take the Seahawks. Of course, one of the reasons the game is in Maryland is that the Seahawks don’t travel well. Seattle is a 3-5 road team, and only one of their three road wins came over a team that finished the season with a winning record (the Bears, who, you know, aren’t in the playoffs). That gets us right back to where we started: good game featuring a home team that should be the better squad and a road team that probably actually is the better squad, but that hasn’t shown any real ability to play up to its potential away from its own building. I think RG3 does just enough to eke out a win. Barely. Maybe right at the end of regulation. Native Americans, 23-21.