Week Two Picks
You’d almost think than by week two one might have some sense of where things were going in the NFL. You’d be wrong. Or at least you would if you were thinking about me. I think I know less going into this week than I “knew” going into last. So that should make for some excellent picks, right? Here’s what not to expect.
Chicago (+5.5) at Green Bay
I’m not giving five and a half here. OK, sure, I get it. The Bears aren’t the 49ers. The Packers most certainly aren’t the Colts. There’s precious little chance that Green Bay will allow itself not only to fall 0-2 (and what’s worse, 0-2 at home) but to do it with a loss to a division rival. And, setting aside what appear to be lingering issues on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers remain a team that put up 35 points per game last season (and 40 points per game at home). The Packers aren’t losing this game. But the Bears do bring in a fast, mean defense that may give the Packers O fits if Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements don’t figure out how to get their running game going. I can’t see Aaron Rodgers struggling two weeks in a row, so I have to believe the Packers are going to pull out a win. But I think the Bears will figure out how to hold the difference to three or four.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at NY Giants
Here’s another case of a team that’s simply not going to allow itself to drop two straight at home to start the season. The Giants have had 10 days to rest up from and stew over their opening night loss to the hated Dallas Cowboys. And, yeah, the Buccaneers at least appear to have an impressive defense, but I’m not sure playing the Giants in East Rutherford equates in any way to hosting the fairly one-dimensional Carolina Panthers. New Jersey should be able to get it together and pull off a win here, though I expect it will be by just slightly less than the seven and a half the Giants are giving. Let’s say six.
Arizona (+13.5) at New England
It’s way too early in the season to know anything for sure, but it certainly appeared last week that the Patriots had done much of the work needed to repair their soft defense of a season ago. It also looked like New England had figured out how to use the run game to take some of the pressure off Tom Brady. Most important, it appeared that the Cardinals were once again on the road to a second- or third-place finish in the weak NFC west. That’s not going to cut it when you face New England, particularly when you have to travel across the country to do it. And that’s the case no matter who you have taking snaps. I don’t like spreads this big, so I would never put real money on this, but I have to figure that if the Patriots can beat the Titans by 21 on the road, they can do at least two thirds as well against the Cardinals at home. I’ll take New England and give the points.
Minnesota (-1.5) at Indianapolis
Clearly there’s not as much of a difference between the Colts and the Jaguars this season as there has been for most of the past decade, but I’m still not taking a Minnesota squad that that barely held off Jacksonville in its own building to travel anywhere and beat anyone. Not even by a lousy point and a half. Andrew Luck has a much better outing than he had last week (he could scarcely do worse) and the Colts win by four.
New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina
I can’t tell you whether Cam Newton‘s looking at a sophomore slump. I’m gonna need a few weeks on that. (Also, while I’m not going to assert that Newton had a great day against the Buccaneers last weekend, considering the fact that he got zero protection I’m certainly not about to say he was awful.) But here’s something I can tell you: No matter who’s coaching the Saints, there aren’t going to be a whole lot of games in which Drew Brees completes just 46 percent of his passes and throws pair of picks. Certainly not two in a row. And if you can’t hold off the Bucs offense, you’re sure as hell not gonna hold off the Saints. New Orleans by a touchdown.
Kansas City (+3) at Buffalo
One of these teams is gonna take out a huge pile of week one disappointments on the other. I honestly don’t know which it will be, but I’m inclined to favor the one that didn’t let Mark Sanchez, a guy with a career passer rating of 74.2 and a career completion percentage of 56, get to 123.4 and 70, while allowing the Jets to hang 48 points on its supposedly formidable defense. But, hey, that’s just me. Chiefs by a field goal.
Baltimore (+2.5) at Philadelphia
You know, I understand that the Eagles were on the road and everything, but I still can’t stop thinking about how they struggled to beat the Browns last weekend. And I know it was just against the Bengals, but the Ravens looked really good on Monday night. So if it’s all the same to you, I think I’ll go with Baltimore straight up in this game. Short week for the Ravens, though, so maybe they only win by a point.
Oakland (-2.5) at Miami
No team could possibly be as bad as the Raiders looked on Monday, right? Well, except maybe for the Dolphins. They could potentially be even worse. But, you know, the crazy thing is, the Raiders are traveling across the country on a short week to play an early game. There’s nothing easy about that. Oakland’s also pretty banged up. And the Raiders will be wearing their black shirts in the midday sun with a projected high temperature of 86. Dolphins by three.
Cleveland (+7) at Cincinnati
I was struggling to come up with something interesting about this game until I realized that there just isn’t anything interesting about this game. Bengals by 10.
Houston (-7.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars may or may not be worse than the Dolphins. Either way, it’s close. And I don’t care where this game’s being played, that’s gotta be good for more than seven and a half. Texans by 17.
Dallas (-3) at Seattle
The Cowboys are playing on extra rest. The Seahawks are … well, they’re the Seahawks, aren’t they? I mean, OK, I keep hearing that Seattle has a good team, but I’m not buying into that until I see it. Assuming Tony Romo can figure out a way to take snaps without incident, Dallas should roll. (Which will be totally awesome, because then we’ll get at least a solid week of talk about the Cowboys being Super Bowl bound.) Cowboys by nine.
Washington (-3) at St. Louis
Two huge road wins to open the season should really fire up the talk about Robert Griffin III turning the Native Americans into a championship team in his rookie season. And who knows, maybe he will. Maybe he really will change the game, too. It’s been done once before. For now, though, I’m just gonna go with Washington by 10.
NY Jets (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers don’t lose home openers. And Mark Sanchez isn’t having two straight career days. Pittsburgh by a touchdown.
Tennessee (+6) at San Diego
I can’t begin to guess whether what I saw on Monday night was about the Chargers being better than I expected or the Raiders being downright awful. But I have to believe that a defense that can contain Darren McFadden (on the ground, anyhow) can at least slow down Chris Johnson. And that’s what it takes to beat the Titans. San Diego wins straight up. It’s a push with the points.
Detroit (+6.5) at San Francisco
Just a couple of years ago, this would have been a game to dread. Now, it’s a great choice for prime time. Seems like a team that can take apart the Packers in Green Bay ought to be able to hold off the Lions at home. Especially if Calvin Johnson isn’t 100 percent. Right? San Francisco by a touchdown.
Denver (+3) at Atlanta
I said going into last weekend that I thought the Broncos would be a tough team to play at home (as usual) this season. If Peyton Manning can keep playing as well as he did against Pittsburgh, he may actually make Denver competitive on the road as well. But not enough to edge a team that brings as much to the field as the Falcons. Not yet, anyhow. Atlanta by six.
